Round 3 play (4pts):
Ian Poulter to beat Kiradech Aphibarnrat -180 @ 5Dimes [available generally]
Poulter is an obvious odds-on favourite for this matchup given the difference in World Rankings and the bigger issue of the Race to Dubai, but, on top of that, Aphibarnrat has not been playing like a player who starts the weekend in 5th place: in a field of just 56, he ranks outside the top-20 in driving distance and outside the top-40 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Only two players hit fewer greens in regulation today. Poulter's momentum was lost when, after three birdies in five holes, he then missed two par putts from inside six feet. A bounce-back with three birdies in the last six holes sees him start the weekend inside the top-5 and five shots behind Stenson, so he can still win both titles from this position. I expect the drama to continue until Sunday.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: McIlroy tb Molinari -138; Larrazabal tb Jimenez -130; Kaymer tb Jaidee -150; Donald tb Wood -125]