Dr Bob Bowls

[the duke]

3 Star Selection
***Connecticut 27 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at Meineke Bowl - Charlotte) 10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 Connecticut was destroyed by West Virginia 21-66 in their regular season finale, but that shouldn?t take away from the great season that the Huskies had. U Conn was 9-3 for the season and their only losses by more than 1 point were to a very good Cincinnati team and to West Virginia. The other loss was by just 1 point to Virginia and the Huskies have wins against Louisville and South Florida to their credit. Wake Forest, meanwhile, didn?t beat a team all season that is rated higher than Connecticut in my ratings. The best team that the Demon Deacons beat was Florida State, which is about the same as the Huskies, and Wake?s only other victories against better than average teams came at home in overtime against Maryland (when Maryland was a below average team with Steffy at quarterback) and at Vanderbilt.

The strength of this Huskies team is a defense that gave up 19 points or less in 9 of their 11 games with only good offensive teams Cincinnati (27 points) and West Virginia scoring 20 points or more against them. Connecticut?s defensive weakness is stopping good running teams, but Wake Forest is not a good running team (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Deacons are not likely to take advantage. Wake Forest isn?t a good passing team either, as Riley Skinner averaged 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he?ll have a tough time throwing against a very good Connecticut pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) while picking off 22 passes. Wake Forest faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Boston College, Virginia, Clemson, and Vanderbilt) and the Demon Deacons averaged only 4.2 yppl in those 4 games while not topping 4.4 yppl in any of them. I don?t see Wake Forest having much success against Connecticut?s solid defense either.

Wake Forest also has a good defense, as the Demon Deacons allowed just 4.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Connecticut is nothing special offensively, as the Huskies are average running the ball and slightly worse than average throwing it (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions all season, which is why the Huskies are better than average in compensated scoring (27.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 25.5 points to an average team). My math model projects 4.7 yppl for both teams in this game, but Wake Forest hasn?t gained more than 4.4 yppl against a better than average defense this season so I think the Huskies will do a better job of moving the football even though my math model projects the yardage as even. Connecticut has an edge in projected turnovers but Wake Forest has a special teams edge. Overall, my math model favors Wake Forest by ? a point, so the line value favors U Conn and I think the Huskies will win straight up.

Connecticut applies to a 37-8-1 ATS Bowl situation while Wake Forest applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation. Try not to overreact to Connecticut?s last game (that 21-66 loss to West Virginia), as teams that lost their previous game by more than 38 points are actually 11-2 ATS in bowl games and teams that gave up 65 points or more in their final regular season game are 4-1 ATS in bowls. The fact that Connecticut gave up 66 points in one game and still allowed an average of just 18.6 points for the season tells you how good the Huskies? defense was for most of the season.

I?ll take Connecticut in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.12 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-1.13 odds or higher) to +1 point.

3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and they?ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech won?t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresno?s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and he?s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he won?t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.

Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.

Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 ? points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but they?ve never had a defense as bad as this year?s edition. I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points.

2 Star Selection
**Navy 33 Utah (-8.0) 32 (at Poinsettia Bowl) 06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-07 I?m not sure how fired up Utah will be for this game after losing their season finale to rival BYU, and the Utes? very good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) isn?t so great defending the run, which is what they?ll have to do in this game. Utah allowed a mediocre 4.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team and they allowed the Air Force option to ramble for 344 ground yards at 5.6 yprp in an early season loss. Navy has averaged 358 yards at 5.9 yprp on the ground this season and the running portion of their option attack should be as good as always in this game. Utah is amongst the best in the nation at defending the pass (4.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppp) but that does them little good against the Midshipmen.

Navy?s defense was horrendous this season defending the pass (8.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average team), but Utah?s Brian Johnson is a below average passer (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Navy is pretty decent at defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp). Johnson is likely to post good passing numbers and Utah will run the ball with success too, but Navy should be able to match the Utes on the scoreboard.

My math model takes match-ups into account and the math favors Utah by just 8 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for the play is based on technical factors. Navy applies to an 18-1-3 ATS subset of a 35-5-4 ATS bowl situation while also applying to a 40-9 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator. Navy?s head coach Paul Johnson has moved onto a job at Georgia Tech, but longtime offensive assistant Ken Niumatalolo will keep the offensive system in place and you can be assured that Navy is working hard preparing for this game. Some teams have difficulty staying focused during the weeks of preparing for a bowl game but Military Academies are very disciplined and that seems to pay off in bowl season. In fact, Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 20-6 ATS in all bowl games since 1976 (Navy is 6-2 ATS), including 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more. Interim coaches are 13-6 ATS in bowl games in recent years, so the coaching change shouldn?t affect the Middies? preparation for this game either. Navy has a long history of playing well away from home, as the Midshipmen are 107-62-2 ATS in all games away from home the last 28 years, including 66-34 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points. This game is strong enough technically to be at least a 3-Star Best Bet, but I?m uncomfortable making a big play on a team with such a bad pass defense, as Utah could easily decide to throw the ball 50 times to take advantage of that bad Navy secondary ? although I doubt that they will with Darrell Mack in the backfield to run the ball.

I?ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

 

[the duke]

2 Star Selection
**UCLA 24 BYU (-6.0) 21 (at Las Vegas Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Dec-07 Ucla?s program might be in disarray with Karl Durrell being dismissed, but the Bruins are better than their 6-6 record would indicate. The Bruins played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this season and I?m positive that BYU would be 6-6 or no better than 7-5 if they had played UCLA?s schedule. The Bruins? 27-17 win over BYU in the Rose Bowl in September was actually a bad game for UCLA, who was out-gained 3.7 yards per play to 5.6 yppl by the Cougars that day. I?m sure BYU wants their revenge but they are unlikely to dominate the yardage as they did in that first meeting.

BYU?s offense averaged 5.9 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl but that unit is at a disadvantage against a very good UCLA defense that yielded just 4.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team (after adjusting for playing Oregon without Dennis Dixon). BYU?s defense is almost as good, allowing 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl, and the Bruins? offense was 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season. However, starting quarterback Ben Olson will be back behind center and his passing numbers (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) are significantly better than the team?s passing rating of -0.3 yppp. The Bruins? rushing attack has been 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average (3.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team) in 4 games since leading rusher Kahlil Bell (795 yards at 5.6 ypr in just over 7 games) was injured early in UCLA?s 8th game against Washington State. UCLA?s offense is just average without Bell and with Olson at quarterback, so they?re not going to have an easy time moving the ball. Thankfully, UCLA?s brilliant special teams and their defensive advantage over BYU?s offense will lead to better field position for the offense to work with.

My math model does call for BYU to have more total yards in this game but UCLA?s special teams advantage is significant and my math favors the Bruins by 2 points in this game. While my math model is very complicated, even a simple math approach shows that this line is too high. BYU played a schedule that was 0.6 points worse than average and they won by an average of 12.4 points (so they would be +11.8 points against an average schedule). UCLA only out-scored their opponents by 0.1 points but the Bruins played a schedule that was 8.2 points tougher than average, so they are +8.3 points based purely on points. The difference in adjusted point differential is BYU by 3.6 points, but UCLA?s offense is better with Ben Olson at quarterback, even with RB Bell out. UCLA also had 2 fumbles returned for TD?s against them, which is random, so that?s 14 points random points (1.2 per game) that should be factored out of the adjusted points analysis, which leaves us with BYU by 2.4 points without factoring in the return of Olson for the Bruins. Even if the line should be BYU by 3 points then getting 6 points with UCLA is a 58.8% play.

The Bruins are reportedly eager to atone for their bad season and there is no doubt that they have better overall talent than BYU does. UCLA just had problems staying consistently motivated under Dorrell, as they only seemed to play well after a loss or when challenged by a good team. That motivation exists in this game, as the Bruins are off a season ending loss (but cover) against USC and they?re an underdog. The senior class at UCLA is 14-3 ATS in games after a loss and they?ve covered 10 straight games as an underdog (5-0 ATS this year). It is clear that UCLA is not getting enough credit for playing a Pac-10 schedule. Pac-10 teams are 181-124-3 ATS (59.3%) since 1980 as an underdog against non-conference opponents, including 77-34-2 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against teams that are .500 or better straight up entering the game. Pac 10 teams are also 32-17 ATS as underdogs or picks in bowl games, including 24-8 ATS against teams entering the bowl off a win in their regular season finale. UCLA certainly has the talent to play with any team (as their 10-0 dog record suggests) and they?d love to play well for interim coach and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker, who is the player?s choice to be the next head coach.

I?ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more.

2 Star Selection
**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isn?t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemson?s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Ford?s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

Auburn?s offense doesn?t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemson?s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburn?s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I don?t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigers? defense - but I?ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.

With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburn?s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).

I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. I?ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.

2 Star Selection
**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.

Wisconsin?s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hill?s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennessee?s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.

Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Year?s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Year?s Day Bowls ? the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).

I?ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and I?ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.

 

[the duke]

2 Star Selection
**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didn?t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaii?s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesn?t have as much impact on Hawaii?s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington ? who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State ? the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgia?s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgia?s defense is this year. That included Brennan?s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.

What is often overlooked is how good Hawaii?s defense has been this season. The Warriors didn?t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgia?s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaii?s defense and I actually think the Warriors? stop unit is just as good as Georgia?s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity ? as they will be in this game.

My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level they?ve played against other good teams that they?ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they aren?t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.

I?ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.

Best Bet UNDER
**UNDER - Central Florida (-3.0) 27 Mississippi St. 24 (at Liberty Bowl - Memphis) 01:30 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 The side on this game is tough to pick as there are situations favoring both sides and my math model favors UCF by 3 points, which is what the line is. However, the Under looks like a good play. Central Florida averaged 6.0 yards per play and 38.4 points in the regular season but their offense isn?t really that much better than average since they accumulated those numbers against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl and 35.6 points to an average team. Mississippi State?s defense yielded only 5.1 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. Mississippi State?s defense actually has a pretty significant advantage in this game and the Golden Knights built up their offensive numbers against bad defensive teams while struggling against mediocre or good stop units. UCF averaged only 4.4 yppl in 4 games against average or better defensive teams (NC State, Texas, South Florida, and Southern Miss), who would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average team.

The defense has the advantage when Miss State has the ball too, as the Bulldogs have averaged only 4.5 yppl in their last 6 games with freshman Wesley Carroll at quarterback - against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. Those numbers are actually better than Miss State?s -0.7 yppl full season rating, as they were even worse offensively before Carroll took over. Central Florida has a solid defense that yielded just 5.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so Miss State will have trouble moving the ball as well.

With neither team expected to move the ball at a better than average rate it is not likely that this game is higher scoring than the national average of 54.4 total points. Central Florida?s special teams do add offense as they are great in returns and bad in coverage, but my math model predicts just 52 ? points after factoring in special teams. If the total should be 52 ? points then there is a 61.5% chance of going Under the current total of 58 ? points (and 60.4% chance of going Under 58 points).

I?ll pass on the side, but I?ll go UNDER 58 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and consider the Under a Strong Opinion from 56 to 57 ? points.

Strong Opinion
Boise St. (-10.5) 41 East Carolina 25 (at Hawaii Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07 Boise State lost to the only two better than average teams that they played this year, dropping road games to Washington and Hawaii, but the Broncos won their other 9 games against Division 1A teams by an average score of 47-19 while winning 8 of those 9 games by double-digit margins. East Carolina may be 7-5, but don?t mistake the Pirates for a better than average team. East Carolina out-scored their opponents by an average of 0.4 points per game while playing a schedule that was 4.5 points worse than average. The Pirates do have one quality win, a 52-38 home win over CUSA champ Central Florida, but it took a +5 in turnover margin to win that game.

The Pirates are decent offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Boise State defense that was 0.1 yppl better than average in 11 games against Division 1A opponents (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). It?s the other side of the ball where the Pirates have their problems and where they?ll be overmatched in this game. East Carolina allowed 5.7 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense doesn?t have much of a chance to stop a balanced Boise State attack that averaged 6.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Boise State feasted on worse than average defensive teams and should score a good number of points in this game.

Enhancing Boise?s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is their great special teams, which once against ranks among the best in the nation and consistently supplies the Broncos with good field position while pinning their opponents deep in their end of the field. A team that out-gains their opponents 6.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl, as Boise did in their 11 games against 1A competition would normally out-score their opponents by about 12 points per game, but Boise State out-scored their 11 Division 1A opponents by 20.3 points per game in part because of their incredible special teams. East Carolina has mediocre special teams and that should be the difference between a competitive game and a potential blowout.

My math model favors Boise State by 17 points in this game but I?ll resist making Boise State a Best Bet because East Carolina is 15-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz (although 0-1 as a Bowl underdog). My math model also predicts a total of 65.3 points and the Under looks like a decent play too. I did my profile analysis on this game, which basically projects scores based on how well each team has played against teams with similar statistical characteristics (using regression analysis on each facet of the opponent?s stats ? run offense, pass defense, etc). The profile analysis of Boise State suggests that they?d total 66 points against a team with East Carolina?s level of offense and defense while the profile analysis on ECU projects a total of 63 total points against a team with Boise State?s statistical profile. Either way, the games is likely to go under the 70 point total.

I?ll consider Boise State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less and I?ll lean with the Under at 69 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Florida?s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michigan?s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. I?m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.

Michigan?s offense just isn?t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but that?s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gators? pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.

In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. I?d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. I?ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and I?ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.

Other Games
Florida Atl. (-2.5) 36 Memphis 31 (at New Orleans Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 21-Dec-07 Despite being favored, Florida Atlantic isn?t getting enough respect in this game because they reside in the lowly Sun Belt Conference. However, Conference USA, from which Memphis hails, was just as bad as the Sun Belt this season and Memphis is a horrible team whose best win came against a Southern Miss team that is about 5 points worse than an average Division 1A team. Memphis? 7 wins have come against teams that are on average 17 ? points worse than an average team. Florida Atlantic got to this bowl game by beating a good Troy State team that is a couple of points better than an average Division 1A team and the Owls played a schedule that was 9 points tougher than what Memphis played (and each team was 7-5). The Owls are led by sophomore star quarterback Rusty Smith, who averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith also threw just 8 interceptions on 447 passes (1.8%). Overall, Florida Atlantic is only 0.1 yards per play worse than an average Division 1A team on the offensive side of the ball with Smith in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). That unit will have no trouble scoring against a horrible Memphis defense that gave up 6.2 yppl this season to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Memphis rates the same as Florida Atlantic on the offense side of the ball, as the Tigers have averaged 5.9 yppl with Martin Hankins behind center ? against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Hankins, however, is more turnover prone than his counterpart, as he?s thrown picks on 3.1% of his passes this season. The difference in this game is defense ? Memphis has a horrible defense and Florida Atlantic has a decent defense. The Owls have yielded a respectable 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so they are 1.3 yppl better than the Tigers? stop unit.

My math model projects Florida Atlantic to out-gain Memphis 504 yards to 402 yards in this game while also having an advantage in predicted turnovers. The Owls do have horrible special teams, but their special teams are only 1.6 points worse than the Tigers poor special teams units. Overall the math model favors Florida Atlantic by 10 points and I?d love to play the Owls in this game. Unfortunately, Florida Atlantic applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation and a 1-18 ATS bowl situation and those angles will keep me from playing the Owls.

I?ll still lean with Florida Atlantic at -3 points or less.

New Mexico (-2.5) 31 Nevada 26 (at New Mexico Bowl) 01:30 PM Pacific, 22-Dec-07 Nevada has an exciting future superstar at quarterback in Colin Kaepernick but New Mexico is a better overall team and the Lobos are playing in their home stadium. That didn?t help New Mexico last season when they lost 12-20 to San Jose State in this same Bowl game but the Lobos may use that defeat as motivation for this game. The strength of New Mexico?s team is a defense that yielded just 4.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and that unit has performed especially well since giving up 6.6 yppl in week 2 and week 3 to New Mexico State and Arizona. The Lobos gave up just 4.4 yppl in their final 8 games (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), including limiting good offensive teams BYU, San Diego State, and Air Force (who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team) to just 4.5 yppl combined while not allowing more than 4.8 yppl to any of those good offensive teams. Nevada is a very good offensive team, as the Wolf Pack have averaged 6.7 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. That unit got better when starting quarterback Nick Graziano was injured against Fresno State in week 6, which led to the emergence of freshman star Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick is has averaged 8.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB) while throwing 19 touchdown passes against just 3 interceptions. Kaepernick has also added 649 yards on 79 running plays and he teams with RB Luke Lippincott (1380 yards at 5.4 ypr) to give Nevada a balanced attack. Nevada has been 1.1 yppl better than average offensively with Kaepernick at quarterback, which is the same rating as New Mexico?s defense has had in their last 8 games (although the Lobos? defense is 0.7 yppl better than average for the season because of poor play early in the season).

The battle between New Mexico?s offense and Nevada?s defense is also pretty close, as the Lobos have been 0.6 yppl worse than average this season (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while Nevada?s defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). New Mexico quarterback Donovan Porterie posted just average passing numbers this season (6.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp), but he should be able to throw the ball pretty well in this game and Porterie also doesn?t get intercepted much (8 times on 382 passes). New Mexico's top running back Rodney Ferguson was just ruled ineligible for this game due to academics and there is a big drop-off between his 4.0 ypr and Paul Baker's 3.4 ypr. New Mexico's offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average without Ferguson. The real difference in this game is special teams, as Nevada has horrible special teams while New Mexico?s special teams are better than average with one of the best kickers in the nation in John Sullivan, who has made 26 of 29 field goals this season ? which could come in handy in what is expected to be a tight game.

My math model favors New Mexico by 5 1/2 points on their home field without Ferguson and there are no situations favoring either side in this game, although teams playing on their home field are 13-5 ATS in bowl games when not favored by 7 points or more. New Mexico failed to follow that trend last season, but they are likely to cover this game.

I?ll lean with New Mexico. Leans on other games

Cincinnati (-11) vs Southern Miss: Math favors Cincy but Bowl angles favor Southern Miss. No Opinion.

Purdue (-8 ?) vs Central Michigan: Math favors Purdue by 10 points but situation slightly favors Central Michigan. Tough call, but I?ll lean slightly with Purdue.

Texas (-2 ?) vs Arizona State: I lean with Arizona State.

Boston College (-3 ?) vs Michigan State: I lean slightly with Michigan State at +3 or more.

Tcu (-3 ?) vs Houston: The bowl situation favor Houston, but the math favors TCU pretty significantly and TCU is certainly the side I like.

Oregon State (-5) vs Maryland: I?ll probably pick Oregon State by 4 points, so I?ll lean slightly with Maryland.

Penn State (-5 ?) vs Texas A&M: I lean slightly with Penn State.

Alabama (-3 ?) vs Colorado: I like Colorado plus the points.

Cal (-3 ?) vs Air Force: I lean slightly with Cal.

South Florida (-6 ?) vs Oregon: I lean with Oregon.

Kentucky (-3) vs Florida State: No Opinion at this time with Florida State on the verge of suspensions being handed out. At this point I?d pick Kentucky by 3 points.

Oklahoma State (-4) vs Indiana: I lean with Oklahoma State.

Missouri (-3) vs Arkansas: My math favors Arkansas and the angles favor Missouri. I?ll call for Missouri by 3 points.

Texas Tech (-6) vs Virginia: I lean slightly with Texas Tech.

USC (-13 ?) vs Illinois: I lean slightly with Illinois.

Oklahoma (-7 ?) vs West Virginia: Tough call without knowing how West Virginia will react to their coach leaving them, but the value is certainly on West Virginia if they show up. I?ll lean with West Virginia and would have considered them for a Strong Opinion had coach Rodriguez not left for the Michigan job.

Virginia Tech (-3 ?) vs Kansas: I like Kansas plus the points.

Rutgers (-10) vs Ball State: Math favors Rutgers pretty significantly, but situations are strongly in favor of Ball State. At this point I?ll pick Rutgers by 10 and thus have no opinion.

Tulsa (-4 ?) vs Bowling Green: I lean with Tulsa.

LSU (-4) vs Ohio State: Not sure which way I?ll go in this game yet, but I?m leaning with Ohio State at this