Monday, April 07, 2003 5:01 PM
The regular season is now over. I'm proud to have selected at almost 60%----showing a profit of over $6000----and to have gone over 84% with multi-unit plays. But that's history now----and the best time of year for hockey fans is upon us.
I don't find the playoffs particularly easy. Look at the lines for the first games of each series-----and you'll see why. Plenty of 1 1/2 goal lines-----yet the money lines are frought with very high juice in many cases. You'll begin to see U/O totals with lines like 4 and 4 1/2 instead of the 5 and 5 1/2 that you've become accustomed to.
I usually find some series bets to be interesting. This year is no exception. The thing that turns bettors away from series wagers is the high wood you must often lay on some favorites. However------let's examine that. If you bet on team A-----which you feel will certainly beat team B-----and the line is $360 to win $100----you'll often focus on the $360 and think that that is a lot to lose. It may or may not be for you------but for that $360-----you're actually alive for at least four-----and up to as many as 7 games. If you'd ordinarily wager somewhere between $50 and $100 on a game you really liked.......you get the idea. Plus-----upsets occur far more often in individual games than they do in series. You can throw in a clinker----sometimes two-----and still win a seven game tilt. I'm not arguing the following, though. If you're gonna tell me that books raise the vig for series----you're absolutely right. They feel the need to protect themselves against getting too much money on one side of a wager.
What I'd like to do for you------is a breakdown----as I see things----for each and every series. It'll be fun for me to see how bang on I can be-----and it may help you to make selections on your own. Then----at the conclusion of the writeups-----I'll focus on three series that I'll be taking a piece of.
Here they come-----shift at a time!!!
Islanders/Ottawa
Someone could make the case that the Senators are the best team in hockey. They have speed----scoring----strong defense---and goaltending which isn't in the elite at the position----but certainly good enough to win. The criticism of the Sens in recent years-----is that they could be pushed around by a physical team. That doesn't seem to be as true today------although no one is confusing them with the Broad Street Bullies. The Islanders present an interesting challenge to the Sens. In my opinion-----no penalty killing team in the league can apply such constant pressure----which will make an interesting challenge for Alfredsson and company. One of the things I look for in a playoff teams is this. How many different scoring weapons can they bring to the table. The Isles can beat you with a handful of different people-----and I've a feeling that Alexei Yashin------who's played much better lately----will have a great series against his former club. The Isles goaltending is arguably suspect however----and that will keep me from making a play here. But I will say this. Of all the underdogs on the board----of plus $500 to $100 or more-----I'd give the Isles the best chance. Sens in a very very interesting six or seven.
Boston/New Jersey
I'll be a bit more brief for this one----and with good reason. Don't get me wrong-----someone can and will beat the Devils before the tourney is over------but it won't be the Bruins. The B's staggered into the playoffs----although to be fair---they did turn it around some toward the bitter end. (Read that after Ftorek was fired) The B's lack the essential elements however. Their goaltending is suspect-----I'd even say the weakest in the playoffs------and they depend almost totally on one line for their scoring. Who better to shut down one line than the Devils-----with players such as defensive specialist John Madden. The B's defensive corps is good------but doesn't match up to Stevens, Rafalski, Niedermayer, White, etc. And finally-----Marty Brodeur. Hard to imagine the B's consistently beating Marty-----with a team not set up to win 1-0 or 2-1 games to begin with. I'll be playing the Devils in this one-----and see them winning in no more than five.
Toronto/Philadelphia
If you'd have asked me to do this writeup about a month ago------I'd have told you that I was playing the Maple Leafs-----and felt that the Leafs could be the darkhorse to win the East. Since then----the Leafs have shown their pronounced tendency toward undisciplined play-----(a serious no-no in the playoffs). And-----the Flyers have enjoyed the return of John LeClair and the addition of Tony Amonte. With Amonte, LeClair, Gagne, Roenick, Handzus, Recchi, etc-----the Flyers have scoring options. While Cechmanek is my unfavorite goalkeeper to watch due to his form flaws-----he is arguably better than Belfour at the moment. The Leafs addition of Owen Nolan is a very important one indeed. Combined with Sundin---who may be the best player in the series----the Leafs have a top notch pair. I'll also give the Leafs somewhat of an edge on defense------but the Flyer system makes the Flyers an all-around better defensive team. I'll pass on this one------and I'll predict that this is the closest, most entertaining-----and perhaps most fight-filled series of the early round.
Edmonton/Dallas
Well kept secret-----but the Oilers actually are among the league leaders in points since the 1st of March. They were in serious overdrive just to make the playoffs in fact. Their reward is to face the Dallas Stars----who I'd contend have the best defensive corps in the playoffs. The Stars weren't the best of road teams this year------and have a tendency to struggle for goals on occasion------which means I'll not be laying the nearly $600 it would take to play them here. Dallas wins------but not without a fight.
Detroit/Anaheim
The Ducks were a great team for hockey bettors this season----as they were often very predictable. The easy part to predict is their ability to play tough at home------not often giving up more than two goals. The Red Wings are the Red Wings of course------and there's one further reason why I won't take the shot with the Duckies. The Wings have tasted an early out with this bunch-----and I just don't see it happening again. I see the series going back to Anaheim 1-1 by surprise------but then the Wings winning in Anaheim against the grain to take the series in six games.
Washington/Tampa Bay
These two were in a battle for over two months down the stretch as the contestants for the division championship. The Lightning won that battle-----and I feel they'll win this one too. I know that Jagr and Bondra and Kolzig are the stuff of a winning squad------but I just don't think the Caps role players are up to the standards the Bolts can throw out there. Khabibulin can match Kolzig save for save-----and the Bolts overall team speed will be the difference here. I see Tampa Bay in six.
Saint Louis/Vancouver
About a month ago-----I'd have told you that the Nucks would beat the Blues in four games. The Nucks have come back to earth a bit----and the Blues have returned their star defenseman, Chris Pronger. I still think the Blues will have all kinds of trouble accounting for Naslund and Bertuzzi in this one------and while Dan Cloutier is hardly Ken Dryden-----I'd give him an edge over the Blues----who are still feeling for their goaltending at this late date. The matchup here doesn't favor the Blues at all. They'd probably be happier playing the Ducks or Stars----or another team which can't run and gun with them. The Nucks can play their game------and can play it better. Nucks in six.
Minnesota/Colorado
I've said all year how I like to document every single bet I make---whether at the track or betting sports. The purpose is to handicap myself-------so I can see what situations I've had a good handle on-----and which have apparently confused me. Having said that-----my percentage was lowest this year when betting Minnesota Wild games----for or against. Having said that-----I'll say this. I don't think the Wild can play in a series with the Avs-----and I think the Avs will win this by a shockingly easy margin----probably five games. But------I haven't had a good handle on the Wild as I've said so........buyer beware. I'll be passing------the $600 is too rich for my blood given what I've already told you.
In the end-----here are my plays
Devils -360 Three Units
Tampa Bay -110 One Unit
Vancouver -180 One Unit
Hope this has been fun------good luck to us all.
-------------------------
The cure is winning!!!
The regular season is now over. I'm proud to have selected at almost 60%----showing a profit of over $6000----and to have gone over 84% with multi-unit plays. But that's history now----and the best time of year for hockey fans is upon us.
I don't find the playoffs particularly easy. Look at the lines for the first games of each series-----and you'll see why. Plenty of 1 1/2 goal lines-----yet the money lines are frought with very high juice in many cases. You'll begin to see U/O totals with lines like 4 and 4 1/2 instead of the 5 and 5 1/2 that you've become accustomed to.
I usually find some series bets to be interesting. This year is no exception. The thing that turns bettors away from series wagers is the high wood you must often lay on some favorites. However------let's examine that. If you bet on team A-----which you feel will certainly beat team B-----and the line is $360 to win $100----you'll often focus on the $360 and think that that is a lot to lose. It may or may not be for you------but for that $360-----you're actually alive for at least four-----and up to as many as 7 games. If you'd ordinarily wager somewhere between $50 and $100 on a game you really liked.......you get the idea. Plus-----upsets occur far more often in individual games than they do in series. You can throw in a clinker----sometimes two-----and still win a seven game tilt. I'm not arguing the following, though. If you're gonna tell me that books raise the vig for series----you're absolutely right. They feel the need to protect themselves against getting too much money on one side of a wager.
What I'd like to do for you------is a breakdown----as I see things----for each and every series. It'll be fun for me to see how bang on I can be-----and it may help you to make selections on your own. Then----at the conclusion of the writeups-----I'll focus on three series that I'll be taking a piece of.
Here they come-----shift at a time!!!
Islanders/Ottawa
Someone could make the case that the Senators are the best team in hockey. They have speed----scoring----strong defense---and goaltending which isn't in the elite at the position----but certainly good enough to win. The criticism of the Sens in recent years-----is that they could be pushed around by a physical team. That doesn't seem to be as true today------although no one is confusing them with the Broad Street Bullies. The Islanders present an interesting challenge to the Sens. In my opinion-----no penalty killing team in the league can apply such constant pressure----which will make an interesting challenge for Alfredsson and company. One of the things I look for in a playoff teams is this. How many different scoring weapons can they bring to the table. The Isles can beat you with a handful of different people-----and I've a feeling that Alexei Yashin------who's played much better lately----will have a great series against his former club. The Isles goaltending is arguably suspect however----and that will keep me from making a play here. But I will say this. Of all the underdogs on the board----of plus $500 to $100 or more-----I'd give the Isles the best chance. Sens in a very very interesting six or seven.
Boston/New Jersey
I'll be a bit more brief for this one----and with good reason. Don't get me wrong-----someone can and will beat the Devils before the tourney is over------but it won't be the Bruins. The B's staggered into the playoffs----although to be fair---they did turn it around some toward the bitter end. (Read that after Ftorek was fired) The B's lack the essential elements however. Their goaltending is suspect-----I'd even say the weakest in the playoffs------and they depend almost totally on one line for their scoring. Who better to shut down one line than the Devils-----with players such as defensive specialist John Madden. The B's defensive corps is good------but doesn't match up to Stevens, Rafalski, Niedermayer, White, etc. And finally-----Marty Brodeur. Hard to imagine the B's consistently beating Marty-----with a team not set up to win 1-0 or 2-1 games to begin with. I'll be playing the Devils in this one-----and see them winning in no more than five.
Toronto/Philadelphia
If you'd have asked me to do this writeup about a month ago------I'd have told you that I was playing the Maple Leafs-----and felt that the Leafs could be the darkhorse to win the East. Since then----the Leafs have shown their pronounced tendency toward undisciplined play-----(a serious no-no in the playoffs). And-----the Flyers have enjoyed the return of John LeClair and the addition of Tony Amonte. With Amonte, LeClair, Gagne, Roenick, Handzus, Recchi, etc-----the Flyers have scoring options. While Cechmanek is my unfavorite goalkeeper to watch due to his form flaws-----he is arguably better than Belfour at the moment. The Leafs addition of Owen Nolan is a very important one indeed. Combined with Sundin---who may be the best player in the series----the Leafs have a top notch pair. I'll also give the Leafs somewhat of an edge on defense------but the Flyer system makes the Flyers an all-around better defensive team. I'll pass on this one------and I'll predict that this is the closest, most entertaining-----and perhaps most fight-filled series of the early round.
Edmonton/Dallas
Well kept secret-----but the Oilers actually are among the league leaders in points since the 1st of March. They were in serious overdrive just to make the playoffs in fact. Their reward is to face the Dallas Stars----who I'd contend have the best defensive corps in the playoffs. The Stars weren't the best of road teams this year------and have a tendency to struggle for goals on occasion------which means I'll not be laying the nearly $600 it would take to play them here. Dallas wins------but not without a fight.
Detroit/Anaheim
The Ducks were a great team for hockey bettors this season----as they were often very predictable. The easy part to predict is their ability to play tough at home------not often giving up more than two goals. The Red Wings are the Red Wings of course------and there's one further reason why I won't take the shot with the Duckies. The Wings have tasted an early out with this bunch-----and I just don't see it happening again. I see the series going back to Anaheim 1-1 by surprise------but then the Wings winning in Anaheim against the grain to take the series in six games.
Washington/Tampa Bay
These two were in a battle for over two months down the stretch as the contestants for the division championship. The Lightning won that battle-----and I feel they'll win this one too. I know that Jagr and Bondra and Kolzig are the stuff of a winning squad------but I just don't think the Caps role players are up to the standards the Bolts can throw out there. Khabibulin can match Kolzig save for save-----and the Bolts overall team speed will be the difference here. I see Tampa Bay in six.
Saint Louis/Vancouver
About a month ago-----I'd have told you that the Nucks would beat the Blues in four games. The Nucks have come back to earth a bit----and the Blues have returned their star defenseman, Chris Pronger. I still think the Blues will have all kinds of trouble accounting for Naslund and Bertuzzi in this one------and while Dan Cloutier is hardly Ken Dryden-----I'd give him an edge over the Blues----who are still feeling for their goaltending at this late date. The matchup here doesn't favor the Blues at all. They'd probably be happier playing the Ducks or Stars----or another team which can't run and gun with them. The Nucks can play their game------and can play it better. Nucks in six.
Minnesota/Colorado
I've said all year how I like to document every single bet I make---whether at the track or betting sports. The purpose is to handicap myself-------so I can see what situations I've had a good handle on-----and which have apparently confused me. Having said that-----my percentage was lowest this year when betting Minnesota Wild games----for or against. Having said that-----I'll say this. I don't think the Wild can play in a series with the Avs-----and I think the Avs will win this by a shockingly easy margin----probably five games. But------I haven't had a good handle on the Wild as I've said so........buyer beware. I'll be passing------the $600 is too rich for my blood given what I've already told you.
In the end-----here are my plays
Devils -360 Three Units
Tampa Bay -110 One Unit
Vancouver -180 One Unit
Hope this has been fun------good luck to us all.
-------------------------
The cure is winning!!!
