Last year the Dr. Freeze toilet rankings had a good degree of success, especially early on....unfortunately i quit keeping them due to my inability to play contrarian (i think we all have to learn the hard way to some degree) and lack of time.....i rate the teams who in my opinion are the worst teams in the league....i have a very good public perspective and do not have time to break down teams and handicap games fully....so my toilet rankings should be fairly successful......and in fact these are the only plays i am going to play each week. Here is how it goes: I am going to play 1 unit on each team playing an unranked team. Also am going to play .5 units on a higher ranked team playing a lower ranked team. I will keep track of road records and home records-- favored and unfavored...this should be a helpful tool to any contrarian better hopefully.
Anyways, here are my rankings and plays for week 1. I scout for the best lines as well and also am going to make these plays and rate these teams on Saturday. That will help me keep the immediate prior week more in perspective and plays and rankings will be a little less of a gut reaction (although the gut reaction is still there) than it was last year when i ranked them on Monday night. Interestingly enough, the Patriots were in the rankings for quite a while last year....
Toilet Rankings week 1:
1. Cincy
2. Detroit
3. Dallas
4. Houston
5. Buffalo
6. Arizona
7. Carolina
8. NYGiants
9. Jax
10. Atlanta
Plays on:
1. cincy +5 (SIA)
2. detroit +3 vs. 7 CAROLINA (.5 units)
3. DALLAS +4.5 (SIA)
4. houston +12.5
5. buffalo +4.5
6. az +3.5
8. ny giants +12.5
9. jax +4.5 (SIA)
10. ATL -2.5
as you can see, the toilet teams are almost all on the road this week, so it may create value for next week if they have some lopsided losses.....this leads me to a theory on why this system should work.....
1. Parity -- leads to a lot of flux throughout the year between the bottom teams and the top teams
2. This means that the net flux from the bottom perceived teams should move up.
3. The only way this does not work, is if the distance created between the top teams now, and the bottoms team now, is widened....then and only then is there a chance that this system will lose $$. Even if this happens, it does not guarantee this will lose $$ as books will catch on immediately especially if betting public, sees wide disparities regularly....eventually $$ will return to the toilet rankings (in almost all probability).
Anyways, there you have it and there are my plays for week II.
Good Luck!!!!
Anyways, here are my rankings and plays for week 1. I scout for the best lines as well and also am going to make these plays and rate these teams on Saturday. That will help me keep the immediate prior week more in perspective and plays and rankings will be a little less of a gut reaction (although the gut reaction is still there) than it was last year when i ranked them on Monday night. Interestingly enough, the Patriots were in the rankings for quite a while last year....
Toilet Rankings week 1:
1. Cincy
2. Detroit
3. Dallas
4. Houston
5. Buffalo
6. Arizona
7. Carolina
8. NYGiants
9. Jax
10. Atlanta
Plays on:
1. cincy +5 (SIA)
2. detroit +3 vs. 7 CAROLINA (.5 units)
3. DALLAS +4.5 (SIA)
4. houston +12.5
5. buffalo +4.5
6. az +3.5
8. ny giants +12.5
9. jax +4.5 (SIA)
10. ATL -2.5
as you can see, the toilet teams are almost all on the road this week, so it may create value for next week if they have some lopsided losses.....this leads me to a theory on why this system should work.....
1. Parity -- leads to a lot of flux throughout the year between the bottom teams and the top teams
2. This means that the net flux from the bottom perceived teams should move up.
3. The only way this does not work, is if the distance created between the top teams now, and the bottoms team now, is widened....then and only then is there a chance that this system will lose $$. Even if this happens, it does not guarantee this will lose $$ as books will catch on immediately especially if betting public, sees wide disparities regularly....eventually $$ will return to the toilet rankings (in almost all probability).
Anyways, there you have it and there are my plays for week II.
Good Luck!!!!
