Dubai Desert Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Thomas Bjorn to win 22/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
The Emirates is still the scene of his greatest golfing triumph when he was paired with Tiger Woods in all four rounds in 2001 and beat him into 2nd place. Dubai is also the place where he met his wife and they still spend some of the winter months there, so it is easy to explain why Bjorn has such a good record in this event. With finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd and 4th in his four starts prior to his last two weeks, he is in very good form and really should have won the Johnnie Walker Classic when a selection last month. Although he was involved in the World Matchplay until Friday, this event will have been foremost in his mind since that defeat and he will be very determined to reclaim this trophy. I am confident he will once again finish of Woods.

Brian Davis to win 40/1 e.w. available generally
Davis went out of the World Matchplay in the first round last week, so had a couple more days to prepare for this event and while he hasn't won on this course like Bjorn, his finishes of 6th, 4th and 11th in the last three years show that he also has a likening for Dubai. To add to his cause for this event, he won the European Tour-sanctioned event, the ANZ Championship, three weeks for his second Tour title of his career so he is well-poised to fully become one of the leading players on this Tour and represent Europe in the Ryder Cup.

Phillip Price to win 100/1 e.w. @ Stan James
This is just a wrong price. It is not as though Price has been playing badly - he finished 17th in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, having been in contention throughout and been in 3rd place with one round to play. He made the cut in the Nissan Open and lost in the first round last week, but that is a blessing in disguise for this event. Last year he played poorly on the PGA Tour before opening his European Tour campaign with this event and finished in 9th place, five shots behind Derksen. If the wind blows, he will be well-suited to this course and he hits the ball particularly low and has a good record in windy conditions so he should never be 100/1 to win.

 

[lal2000]

Well Stan, that 100/1 price on Price (sorry!) is gone - Stan James already has him at 66/1 - I picked him up at 80/1 @ Sky Bet. But I agree with your thinking, on both Price & Davis. Will post more fully later today.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt):

Ernie Els to beat Darren Clarke -200 @ Pinnacle
Very short price, but a very strong favourite in this matchup. Els has finished ahead of Clarke in all of their common European Tour events in the past year and has a great record on this course: six top-10 finishes in six visits, including two wins. On each occasion he has finished ahead of Clarke who will be further hampered by having played five rounds of competitive golf at La Costa from Friday to Sunday. Just can't see Clarke being a factor this week.
(also available at Sirbet)

Raphael Jacquelin to beat Richard Green -111 @ Stan James
Looking for Jacquelin to resume his early season form here. He had opened the season with top-five finishes in his first three events, but was opposed in the matchups because of his awful record in Australia. He duly obliged, but he should improve considerably this week and even though Green won this title in 1997, he is far from being as competitive as the Frenchman.

Paul Lawrie to beat Robert Karlsson -115 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Karlsson again who should struggle if the wind blows this week. Whereas Lawrie prospers in this weather - he won the nearby 1999 Qatar Open - the tallest player on the Tour has neither the physique nor the swing to cope with these conditions. Lawrie leads Karlsson 8-3-0 h2h on the European Tour over the past year and he should maintain his advantage with the Tour in this region.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Thomas Bjorn(16/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Stan gave a rather emphatic endorsement, and it is an engraved opportunity to stem a tide of positively stinging failures. Resolute and agonizingly capable is about the least I expect.

Colin Montgomerie(40/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
I'm looking for somebody that means to win. The weight of resignation pressing down on his shoulders seemed wooshed away with the simple act of holing a couple of long overdue putts, and Monty comes damn close to walking away as the biggest winner at La Costa. Ever on the downside are the odds stacked in favor of punter's disappointment over Dubai having been just one or two events premature.


MATCHUPS:

Montgomerie(-120) over Campbell (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes


GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Will update record later. Did not have a pretty week last time out.

Jimenez 50 1u ew

Also like Jaidee but missed the 66 so i'll pass.

 

[IE]

203 T. Bjorn -113
204 D. Clarke

Investment: T. Bjorn -113 (1 Unit) (Pinnacle)
===========

221 P. Harrington
222 T. Bjorn -116

Investment: T. Bjorn -116 (1 Unit) (Pinnacle)
===========

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1pt):

Thomas Bjorn to beat Ian Poulter -125 @ Stan James
Normally look to oppose the erratic Poulter in matchups and will so particularly this week because of his poor course form - a best finish of 64th in three visits - and that fact that he was still competing in the World Matchplay at the weekend. Bjorn has great form here and arrived at one of his homes at least one day before Poulter arrived at his temporary accommodation. Should be straightforward.
(also available at Expekt)

Andrew Coltart to beat Charl Schwartzel -108 @ Pinnacle
Schwartzel does not travel well outside his native South Africa and he returned there after the Heineken Classic to only mixed success: a missed cut in the Telkom PGA Championship and a 19th place finish in the Southern Africa Tour Championship. He missed the cut last year on his debut, while Coltart also did the same, but it was the first time since 1995. As with Lawrie, the more the winds blow the more this former Qatar Masters champion should come to the fore.
(also available at Sirbet)

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit e.w.)

P Harrington ? 20/1 @ Victor Chandler (1.5 units e.w.)
D Park ? 150/1 @ SkyBet
M Foster ? 150/1 @ SkyBet
B Davis ? 40/1 @ SkyBet
M Campbell ? 50/1 @ Victor Chandler
P Price - 80/1 @ SkyBet
P McGinley ? 100/1 @ SkyBet

A tip of the hat to Stan on Davis & Price - though Davis seems to be flavour of the month amongst many of the tipsters this week.

Also interested in O?Malley, Schwartzel, Fowler & Lawrie.

Good Luck!

 

[lal2000]

Some doubles covering Doral & Dubai ? all 0.25 units e.w. at either Blue Square or Victor Chandler.

Davis/Huston
Davis/Leonard
Davis/Frazer
Bjorn/Parnevik
Bjorn/Langer
Westwood/Price
Park/Toms
Foster/Toms
Harrington/Perry
Hepworth/Mickelson
P Price/T Clark
Wiegele/Goosen
Lawrie/Maruyama
Clark/Kuehne
Price/Tway

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

SUNDAY:

Casey(+120) over Dredge/Dyson for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final update: 1-2; -1.62pts

Bjorn mc
Davis 5th
Price 30th

Had hoped for better from Davis having started the final round in 3rd place, but glad in the end that he finished strongly to claim a four-way share of 5th place; enough to cover the stake and a little more. Price had threatened to feature this week, but made the headlines for holing a putt for an eagle in the first round but forgetting to have the flag taken out of the hole. Without that two-shot penalty he would have finished Thursday in 3rd place.

Matchups - Final update: 2-3-0; -1.48pts

Els/Clarke WON by 9
Jacquelin/Green WON by 2
Lawrie/Karlsson LOST by 8
Bjorn/Poulter LOST by 4
Coltart/Schwartzel LOST by 9

Small loss, but largely disappointing performances from the selections with only three of them making the cut and, of these, only Els being in contention for the title.