Preview & plays:
The European Tour latest two-week leg is the Middle East and also making the trip is Tiger Woods & Mark O'Meara, the former with rather a handsome appearance fee! The European Tour was the scene of Tiger's last victory, so maybe this will be the place where he kick-starts his season. Most of the European Tour elite make the journey this week - Monty, Westwood, Clarke, Harrington, Bjorn, Price and Fulke - so this will be no walkover.
The event returns to The Emirates golf club after a two-year break, but in that time they have spent even more on improving the course than they did on securing Tiger's appearance. No expense spared in that quarter! The result is a much tougher course than in 1998, but once again retaining the fantastic condition of the course in general and the greens in particular. The players with the best record in this event - including at the Creek, the other host course - have been Monty, McGinley, Norman and Els. So the emphasis on good ball-strikers, particularly from the fairway, is evident even before the course changes come under consideration.
With Tiger too short at 5/2, this week's picks are Monty, Clarke and McGinley. Monty has played this event every single year since 1992, during which time he has won this event on this course (1996) and has not shot a round over par here since 1994. He was extremely impressive in his opening event in Australia and was consistent and in contention throughout the whole of the Singapore Masters. With DAS offering my benchmark for an each-way play, there is also some insurance in case Tiger does roar again this week.
Darren Clarke does not have that good a record in this event, but he is traditionally a slow-starter to the season. He showed that when missing the cut at the South African Open. But he bounced back to beat Westwood, Nick Price and others to win the Dimension Data the following week. Very much a streak player, if he can maintain the momentum from that victory three weeks ago then he is another he can win this event outright and not be intimidated by Tiger's presence in the field.
The third choice, Paul McGinley, is not one for an outright win. His failure to convert contending into winning is famous, but what differentiates this event from others is that here he at least secures a place finish rather than merely a top-20 position. In the last two years at the Creek, he has finished 2nd and 3rd, while in his visits to this course he has achieved 6th (1997) and 5th (1993) place finishes. He avoided the Australian/Asian leg of the Tour and should come here refreshed and relishing the Desert conditions again.
Outright plays:
Colin Montgomerie to win 10/1 e.w. @
DAS
Darren Clarke to win 16/1 e.w. @
Surrey or
Victor Chandler
Paul McGinley to win 66/1 e.w. @
Quickflutter
72-hole plays:
Peter Baker to beat David Park -118 @
Easybets
Baker returns to a course on which he has had two top-10 finishes and an 11th place in seven visits. His good greens in regulation stats show why he should play well here and they are far superior to those of Park's, for whom this will be his first visit
Angel Cabrera to beat Mathias Gronberg -111 @
William Hill
Cabrera is known for his long driving, but he does figure very highly in the greens in regulation stats as well, something that Gronberg does not. He played this course in 1998 and 1997 when he finished 40th and 10th; Gronberg missed the cut on both those occasions as he has done on both visits to the Creek. Definitely one to oppose in Dubai!
Paul McGinley to beat Roger Wessels -118 @
Easybets [2 units]
Wessels finished 17th in 1998 on this course, but apart from that he has finished 65th in 1996 and missed the cut on his three other visits to Dubai. There is no comparison with that record and McGinley's. With this being the 8th consecutive week on the European Tour - across four continents - he should be opposed this week
Ian Poulter to beat Justin Rose -110 @
Surrey
Poulter was impressive in finishing 3rd in Australia at the Greg Norman Invitational, Rose was impressive in finishing 2nd twice in South Africa, but here he returns to an event in which he has missed the cut on both occasions. To have played well in his birth country is one thing, to transfer that form to another continent is another and Rose is opposed this week
[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 02-28-2001).]
