Dubai Desert Classic

[Stanley]

Outright play (total stake per play: 1pt)

Paul Casey to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and Coral
Having won the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship in such impressive form two weeks ago, particularly in the last round, it is easy to overlook his missed cut last week. And, in fact, it should help him prepare fully for this event. He does not have a good record against Tiger, but this should be a very good week to take Woods on - winning without playing anywhere near his best last week and immediately travelling a very long distance when wanting to spend more time than previously close to home - and he could certainly push Els all the way for this title if in contention over the weekend. He has played here twice, shooting every round under par and ranking in the top-5 in greens in regulation each time so this is clearly a course that suits his attacking style of golf. Els may certainly be the player to beat this week. but at four times the odds, Casey looks far better value.

Waiting on lines for the remaining plays.

 

[Stanley]

Further outright play (total stake: 1pt)

Ernie Els to win 8.25/1 @ The Greek
Wasn't expecting this at all! I'd priced Els at no more than 5/1 for this event and so was not going to back him at a best price of 11/2 (better value elsewhere) ... until The Greek released their lines! Where do you start? Very impressive last week, considering it was his first tournament for four weeks; returned to the winner's fold last month in the South African Open; a three-time winner on this course and has yet to finish outside the top-3 in any of the last six years; he is the course record holder (61) and has won more than double the prize money in this event than anyone else; is in the process of building his own course in Dubai - the Dunes at Victory Heights; his family has flown over to spend the week with him in Dubai (including a teacher for daughter, Samantha!); and this is such a good week to oppose Tiger. I'll gladly take this offering from The Greek!

 

[slyman]

spam banned:admin

 

[1837]

Will follow your lead Stanley and play:

72 holes match ups:

Els -195 over Stenson (2 units)
Els +185 over Tiger... :scared (2 units)

To win: 0.5 unit on Els at +504 and 0.5 on Casey at +2054

Do you think Fasth can rebound from his poor performance of last week? I like Edfors over him in a match ups but would like your insight... thanks!

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Michael Campbell(+7550 and +1215) e.w. @ thegreek
- - Historically not Cambo's time of year on the European Tour, but what I've seen and sensed tells me he's very close, and on the verge of just one sweet round to get him untracked and very comfortably in the mix for the 72 hole duration . . . On the rebound from a disappointing 2006 campaign, and totally committed to the European Tour, this big stage seems absolutely ideal for popping to the forefront.

Charl Schwartzel(100/1 and 15/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - The biggest buzz in capping the PGA Tour seems to be about being first with the next young buck to seize the moment and surprise all the way across the finish line, not so much on the European Tour . . .Two years ago it was profitable to fade the high ball hitting Charl when the wind was up, but I can assure you that reliable angle is a thing of the past. His dodgy putting has also been shored up considerably during the same time, and he is knocking on the door of something noteworthy in his fine development. A name that has featured early in the season and in the early stages of events for some time now, so here's to hoping that 1 + 1 might actually equal 2.

Ernie Els(+550 and -110) e.w. @ 5dimes and thegreek
- - Ernie is not forcing anything and playing beautifully again, and there's no reason for him to have to force it here.

Henrik Stenson(20/1 and +305) e.w. @ SIA and thegreek
- - Rectifying in a big way the pitiful performance from last week on the Par 5s holds the key this week, IMO, and I believe the odds are shorter than this that it will happen thus . . . With Tiger at the top it looks like some big odds on proven class this week, but in making my final cuts, Els and Stenson kept their names and noses out in front, one reason being both are among the morning starters on the one day on which I've seen a forecast with winds kicking up significantly for the afternoon starters.

GL

 

[1837]

adding

72 holes match ups:

L. Westwood -128 over D. Clarke (2 units)

 

[1837]

so close.....

Ernie "choker' Els.... at least he did something on the last hole to win Woods match ups...

Recap:
outright: 0-2 (-1 unit)
match ups: 1-2 (-2.66 units)

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Was that a nail biter finish or what ?

 

[phar.lap]

I think choker is a little harsh. He's probably done enough in his time to dispel that theory.

Was a great finish though.

 

[1837]

When he'll be able to hold a lead i'll agree....

He was awful on this last day. Too much pressure i guess.... :shrug:

 

[phar.lap]

1 Open and 2 US Opens suggest otherwise.