Finally the European Tour starts to near Europe. Not too much to comment on thus far but would appreciate any opinions on Clarke, Monty, Woosie and Bjorn. Was looking forward to this event but with the reemergence of Els, the tournament has a slightly different complexion. He is such a true 'international' player that I think he's immune to jet lag and endless travelling. Any initial thoughts?
Dubai Desert Classic
- Thread starter Monarch
- Start date
Dubai Desert Classic
Course: Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Yardage: 7185
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Tiff Green 328 overseeded with Poa Trivialis
Weather Forecast
Best Players Last 10 Years
Past Winners:
2001 - Thomas Bjorn
2000 - Jose Coceres
1999 - David Howell
1998 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1997 - Richard Green
1996 - Colin Montgomerie
1995 - Fred Couples
1994 - Ernie Els
1993 - Wayne Westner
1992 - Seve Ballesteros
Course: Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Yardage: 7185
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Tiff Green 328 overseeded with Poa Trivialis
Weather Forecast
Best Players Last 10 Years
Past Winners:
2001 - Thomas Bjorn
2000 - Jose Coceres
1999 - David Howell
1998 - Jose Maria Olazabal
1997 - Richard Green
1996 - Colin Montgomerie
1995 - Fred Couples
1994 - Ernie Els
1993 - Wayne Westner
1992 - Seve Ballesteros
Els has certainly shown himself to be (relatively) immune to jet-lag and under his new work ethic and with his new sports psychologist, he stands a great chance. My primary concern would be the importance of last week's win after a first winless PGA Tour season since joining the Tour in 1994 and the fact that he held off Tiger.
Two ways at looking at Ernie, either he will walk it or make the book for us on other players. He did look mighty relieved on Sunday after holding on. Ever the optimist I am going to look for others to win, in the expectation that we will get better prices because the bookies will have Ernie short...
Have to go with Big Ern... but can we beat the 6/1 at Sporting Odds (9/2 in places.... Clive are you laying any 10/1 at betfair?). He did not win the Genuity Doral as easily as he might have.... but he did still win. His consistency since the British Open is outstanding and even at this short price he is worth an interest. Finished 3rd on his last visit here in 1998.
He could be a better price after the first round when the travelling may have most effect... but if he has a good start he could be 9/4 :shrug:
A Big Easy & Wild Thing double... 181/1
He could be a better price after the first round when the travelling may have most effect... but if he has a good start he could be 9/4 :shrug:
A Big Easy & Wild Thing double... 181/1
Going for Woosnam, Green and Garrido to beat the big guns.
Garrido shook off rust last week, and now ready for a fight. Long time since he has been worth looking at. 80/1 general
Green past winner and already second once this year. 66/1 Blue Square
Woosie creeping up last week, goes well here, finishes of 7/2/5/4 on this course makes good reading! 25/1 Stanley/Sportingbet
All E/W
Garrido shook off rust last week, and now ready for a fight. Long time since he has been worth looking at. 80/1 general
Green past winner and already second once this year. 66/1 Blue Square
Woosie creeping up last week, goes well here, finishes of 7/2/5/4 on this course makes good reading! 25/1 Stanley/Sportingbet
All E/W
Thongchai Jaidee put in 3 good rounds last week after his opening disaster and played well here last year to finish 28th with doubts about all the fancied players plus the added spur of Atwal winning a couple of weeks ago he might just gain the confidence to go close I have had a EW bet with Simon Bold @ 100/1 also Woosie EW with Simon @ 33/1 sacrificing a place ,looks a bit high . Doonhamer
PS Simon has now cut Jaidee to 50/1 must have been my ?5 EW
PS Simon has now cut Jaidee to 50/1 must have been my ?5 EW
Initial Thoughts:
Els 6/1 - Has won here before shooting an amazing -11, 61 in Rd 1. Arguably the best player on the planet today. A fresh new mental approach to back up the purest swing in golf and things are looking pretty good for Ernie. However, his hectic early season schedule has covered Australia, SA, both American coasts and now the long trip to Dubai. Coupled with the pressure filled win last week (having Tiger breathing down your neck for 18 holes has got to take something out of you) and maybe Els will have to settle for a mere top 5.
Harrington 12/1 - Solid course form from Padraig and a good preparatory tournament last week. He mentioned he was feeling a little tournament rusty and hopefully blew some of those cobwebs away with 4 solid rds under par. One of the heaviest scorers on tour and should relish his opportunity this week.
Bjorn 25/1 - excellent win here last yr over Woods. However, he came into the event with a 3rd and 8th place finishes under his belt. In 2002 he is yet to play a competitive round and with the nagging shoulder injury that has bugged him for numerous months, Bjorn is more than likely to be very rusty.
Monty 20/1 - has always played well in Dubai, a win and 3 t-10's. However, there is the back problem and the lack of tournament golf in 2002. The WM did little more than aggravate him and I doubt he'll be able to shoot around the required -20 this week.
Clarke 20/1 - Huge talent, poor temperament. Lack of golf in 2002 and not great course form. Looks like a pass.
Possibles:
B Davies 66/1 - 6th last yr. Real streaky player and can go low.
P Lawrie 40/1 - Putting is finally coming around. Was unlucky to lose to Weir in WM. 21st last yr.
Woosnam 25/1 - great play at Emirates in the past and a solid 6th last week. Would take him ahead of Monty/Clarke/Bjorn.
O'Meara 50/1 - Whenever an American comes across the pond to play a European Tour event I always feel they put far less pressure on themselves and play more freely. With his re-dedication to golf the self-righteous one may go very well.
Scott/Fasth 33/1 - both mc last yr but without doubt the cream of the tours youth. Both still though have a propensity to choke come Sunday and will maybe look for them in the near future in a slightly weaker field.
P Price 40/1 - played some good golf early in America. Has the quality on his day to live with the best of the European Tour. Good course form at Emirates also.
If the scoring hits around the expected -20 again then invariably the cream will rise to the top. I don't forsee a huge price going the distance this week so may have to lay some powder on those short/er prices. Would appreciate any further opinions.
Els 6/1 - Has won here before shooting an amazing -11, 61 in Rd 1. Arguably the best player on the planet today. A fresh new mental approach to back up the purest swing in golf and things are looking pretty good for Ernie. However, his hectic early season schedule has covered Australia, SA, both American coasts and now the long trip to Dubai. Coupled with the pressure filled win last week (having Tiger breathing down your neck for 18 holes has got to take something out of you) and maybe Els will have to settle for a mere top 5.
Harrington 12/1 - Solid course form from Padraig and a good preparatory tournament last week. He mentioned he was feeling a little tournament rusty and hopefully blew some of those cobwebs away with 4 solid rds under par. One of the heaviest scorers on tour and should relish his opportunity this week.
Bjorn 25/1 - excellent win here last yr over Woods. However, he came into the event with a 3rd and 8th place finishes under his belt. In 2002 he is yet to play a competitive round and with the nagging shoulder injury that has bugged him for numerous months, Bjorn is more than likely to be very rusty.
Monty 20/1 - has always played well in Dubai, a win and 3 t-10's. However, there is the back problem and the lack of tournament golf in 2002. The WM did little more than aggravate him and I doubt he'll be able to shoot around the required -20 this week.
Clarke 20/1 - Huge talent, poor temperament. Lack of golf in 2002 and not great course form. Looks like a pass.
Possibles:
B Davies 66/1 - 6th last yr. Real streaky player and can go low.
P Lawrie 40/1 - Putting is finally coming around. Was unlucky to lose to Weir in WM. 21st last yr.
Woosnam 25/1 - great play at Emirates in the past and a solid 6th last week. Would take him ahead of Monty/Clarke/Bjorn.
O'Meara 50/1 - Whenever an American comes across the pond to play a European Tour event I always feel they put far less pressure on themselves and play more freely. With his re-dedication to golf the self-righteous one may go very well.
Scott/Fasth 33/1 - both mc last yr but without doubt the cream of the tours youth. Both still though have a propensity to choke come Sunday and will maybe look for them in the near future in a slightly weaker field.
P Price 40/1 - played some good golf early in America. Has the quality on his day to live with the best of the European Tour. Good course form at Emirates also.
If the scoring hits around the expected -20 again then invariably the cream will rise to the top. I don't forsee a huge price going the distance this week so may have to lay some powder on those short/er prices. Would appreciate any further opinions.
Actually think the fav will win this week, Bmad, so won't be laying any 10s!
Having backed Woosie at 100/1 here last year, can't bring myself to take 25, so for me it's
Gonzalez 40/1 - big hitter, in good form recently
Garrido 80 - encouraging signs recently, played well here in past
Immelman 80 - top ten before, as this course will allow him the room off the tee he needs
Having backed Woosie at 100/1 here last year, can't bring myself to take 25, so for me it's
Gonzalez 40/1 - big hitter, in good form recently
Garrido 80 - encouraging signs recently, played well here in past
Immelman 80 - top ten before, as this course will allow him the room off the tee he needs
72 Hole Match Bet:
HARRINGTON v Montgomerie 8/11 @ Spodds - 3 Units.
1st Rd 3 balls:
DAVIS - Struver - O Karlsson 7/5 @ Hills - 1 Unit.
PRICE - S Webster - Fichardt 11/8 @ Hills - 1 Unit.
HARRINGTON v Montgomerie 8/11 @ Spodds - 3 Units.
1st Rd 3 balls:
DAVIS - Struver - O Karlsson 7/5 @ Hills - 1 Unit.
PRICE - S Webster - Fichardt 11/8 @ Hills - 1 Unit.
Outright plays:
Padraig Harrington to win 12/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Basically the best of the rest. When Els paired up with Goosen to win the World Cup in Japan last November, he played the following week and finished 3rd in the Australian Open, some distance behind Appleby and admitting he was tired. He took a week off and won the Vodacom Players Championship the week afterwards. Expect the same here. A strong performance, but just too tired mentally to win again. This should leave the contest open for one the three selections here. Harrington was 2nd last and played reasonably well considering his rustiness last week. He should finish in the top-6 at the very least.
Colin Montgomerie to win 18/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds
Monty has won this event once and finished in the top-5 in another five out of the ten stagings of this event. The enforced rest from his back scare will have helped him, but more importantly for the big man, so will the support over the past week or so since he announced that he would not return to American shores. With ego suitably re-inflated, he could be back to his best this week.
Adam Scott to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill [5 places option]
A prodigious talent, this could well be his breakout year. He will win on the European Tour this year, but probably a week when not selected!
Padraig Harrington to win 12/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports
Basically the best of the rest. When Els paired up with Goosen to win the World Cup in Japan last November, he played the following week and finished 3rd in the Australian Open, some distance behind Appleby and admitting he was tired. He took a week off and won the Vodacom Players Championship the week afterwards. Expect the same here. A strong performance, but just too tired mentally to win again. This should leave the contest open for one the three selections here. Harrington was 2nd last and played reasonably well considering his rustiness last week. He should finish in the top-6 at the very least.
Colin Montgomerie to win 18/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds
Monty has won this event once and finished in the top-5 in another five out of the ten stagings of this event. The enforced rest from his back scare will have helped him, but more importantly for the big man, so will the support over the past week or so since he announced that he would not return to American shores. With ego suitably re-inflated, he could be back to his best this week.
Adam Scott to win 33/1 e.w. @ William Hill [5 places option]
A prodigious talent, this could well be his breakout year. He will win on the European Tour this year, but probably a week when not selected!
72-hole plays:
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Arjun Atwal -105 @ TattsBet
Decent 28th place finish last year for Jaidee against no course form for Atwal and with this also being Atwal's fifth event in a row, including the career-changing win in the Singapore Masters, I expect him to return to form only after he has taken a rest and taken stock of what he has achieved with that win in Singapore.
Darren Clarke to beat Ian Woosnam +100 @ Surrey
Woosie has great form on this course and finished 6th last week, but I just see this as a match that Clarke should win every time. The only things that stops him is himself. I'll bite at this price.
Mathias Gronberg to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Victor Chandler
Both players returning from successful spells on the ANZ Tour, but I just think Immelman flatters to deceive when in Europe. True, he finished 8th here last year and in the Trophee Lancome, and 9th in the Italian Open, but apart from those three events, his performances on the European and Challenge Tours since 1999 have been very poor when in the Northern Hemisphere. Gronberg closed last year's season with back-to-back top-10 finishes, has had a good winter in Australia and did finish 4th here last year.
Anthony Wall to beat Trevor Immelman +100 @ William Hill
Wall tends to have very good starts to the season and starts to falter by the middle of the year. The same thing has happened this year with good performances on the ANZ Tour and while he does not have a great record on this course and his top-10 finish in 1999 was on another course, I will take Wall to finish in the top-25 as enough to beat Immelman at an attractive price.
Mark O'Meara to beat Justin Rose -111 @ Sporting Odds
Rose stayed in Southern African to secure his automatic place in the Open Championship and has not played since. His record on his record to Europe from the Southern Hemisphere is not good. A high of 76th and three missed cuts in Dubai and Qatar in the last two years is not encouraging. He should perform better this year, but can't see him finishing in the top-20. If O'Meara's performances at the end of last season and in the 2nd place at the Buick Invitational are anything to go by, we could see a much better performance from him this year now that he is not playing #2 to Tiger in Dubai.
Thongchai Jaidee to beat Arjun Atwal -105 @ TattsBet
Decent 28th place finish last year for Jaidee against no course form for Atwal and with this also being Atwal's fifth event in a row, including the career-changing win in the Singapore Masters, I expect him to return to form only after he has taken a rest and taken stock of what he has achieved with that win in Singapore.
Darren Clarke to beat Ian Woosnam +100 @ Surrey
Woosie has great form on this course and finished 6th last week, but I just see this as a match that Clarke should win every time. The only things that stops him is himself. I'll bite at this price.
Mathias Gronberg to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Victor Chandler
Both players returning from successful spells on the ANZ Tour, but I just think Immelman flatters to deceive when in Europe. True, he finished 8th here last year and in the Trophee Lancome, and 9th in the Italian Open, but apart from those three events, his performances on the European and Challenge Tours since 1999 have been very poor when in the Northern Hemisphere. Gronberg closed last year's season with back-to-back top-10 finishes, has had a good winter in Australia and did finish 4th here last year.
Anthony Wall to beat Trevor Immelman +100 @ William Hill
Wall tends to have very good starts to the season and starts to falter by the middle of the year. The same thing has happened this year with good performances on the ANZ Tour and while he does not have a great record on this course and his top-10 finish in 1999 was on another course, I will take Wall to finish in the top-25 as enough to beat Immelman at an attractive price.
Mark O'Meara to beat Justin Rose -111 @ Sporting Odds
Rose stayed in Southern African to secure his automatic place in the Open Championship and has not played since. His record on his record to Europe from the Southern Hemisphere is not good. A high of 76th and three missed cuts in Dubai and Qatar in the last two years is not encouraging. He should perform better this year, but can't see him finishing in the top-20. If O'Meara's performances at the end of last season and in the 2nd place at the Buick Invitational are anything to go by, we could see a much better performance from him this year now that he is not playing #2 to Tiger in Dubai.
Final Selections:
Final Selections:
HARRINGTON 12/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit win + 1 Unit ew.
SCOTT 33/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.
P PRICE 40/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.
LAWRIE 50/1 @ Chandler - 1 Unit ew.
B DAVIS 66/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.
Final Selections:
HARRINGTON 12/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit win + 1 Unit ew.
SCOTT 33/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.
P PRICE 40/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.
LAWRIE 50/1 @ Chandler - 1 Unit ew.
B DAVIS 66/1 @ Spodds - 1 Unit ew.
Mid-point update:
Jaidee/Atwal WON by 3
Clarke/Woosnam Trails by 4
Gronberg/Immelman Leads by 2
Wall/Immelman Leads by 4
O'Meara/Rose LOST by 9
Harrington 59th
Montgomerie mc
Scott 59th
Looks like I'll need to win all three remaining matchup plays just to cover some awful outright picks!
Jaidee/Atwal WON by 3
Clarke/Woosnam Trails by 4
Gronberg/Immelman Leads by 2
Wall/Immelman Leads by 4
O'Meara/Rose LOST by 9
Harrington 59th
Montgomerie mc
Scott 59th
Looks like I'll need to win all three remaining matchup plays just to cover some awful outright picks!
Final update:
Matchups: 3-2; +0.89 units
Clarke/Woosnam WON by 6
Gronberg/Immelman WON by 4
Wall/Immelman LOST by 2
Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units
Harrington 20th
Scott 46th
At least the matchup plays were profitable and for Wall's disappointing 74-74 weekend, they could have covered the outright plays. Called it wrong on Els. Deserved to win and looks to be in fine shape for Augusta.
Matchups: 3-2; +0.89 units
Clarke/Woosnam WON by 6
Gronberg/Immelman WON by 4
Wall/Immelman LOST by 2
Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units
Harrington 20th
Scott 46th
At least the matchup plays were profitable and for Wall's disappointing 74-74 weekend, they could have covered the outright plays. Called it wrong on Els. Deserved to win and looks to be in fine shape for Augusta.
Dubai Summary:
Dubai Summary:
B Davis 4th
Harrington 20th
Scott 46th
Price 46th
Lawrie MC
Profit/Loss: +6.5
Outrights Ytd: +5
Matchups: 2-2
Profit/Loss: +1.56
Ytd: (3-3) +1.47
Total P/L Ytd: +6.47 Units.
Dubai Summary:
B Davis 4th
Harrington 20th
Scott 46th
Price 46th
Lawrie MC
Profit/Loss: +6.5
Outrights Ytd: +5
Matchups: 2-2
Profit/Loss: +1.56
Ytd: (3-3) +1.47
Total P/L Ytd: +6.47 Units.
Last edited:
Monarch...
query on your +7.5 profit..
surely it's an 11 stake and 17.5 return giving a +6.5 not +7.5... did you forget the extra ?1 on Padraig?
though a profits a profit!
query on your +7.5 profit..
surely it's an 11 stake and 17.5 return giving a +6.5 not +7.5... did you forget the extra ?1 on Padraig?
though a profits a profit!
Thanks bettingmad. I forgot the win side of Davis ew was a loss. Still glad to escape the week in minor profit.
