Dubai Desert Classic

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Jamie Donaldson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +100 @ BetVictor [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, Pinnacle and William Hill]
A matchup between 1st and 2nd two weeks ago and I'm backing the Welshman to win again. Over the last six months, he has finished ahead of Olesen in seven of nine common events and shot the higher 1st round score just once. With a top-20 on this course last year, it's hard to see why he is priced as an underdog against Olesen who has a best finish of 42nd on this course.

Ricardo Santos to beat Michael Campbell +100 @ Pinnacle and BetVictor [also available @ William Hill]
It's great to see Campbell playing well again - top-20 finishes in each of the last two weeks - but this is a course on which length off the tee is very useful and he is at a notable disadvantage in this respect against Santos. Santos has similarly been playing well this year with finishes of 28th-4th-22nd in the last three weeks and whereas he made the cut on his debut last year, Campbell has missed the cut here in each of his last six visits, averaging 75. Even in better form, another top-20 finish looks rather unlikely.

Anders Hansen to beat Thorbjorn Olesen +105 @ Bet365
Backing Hansen against Olesen at an even better price than Donaldson. Hansen didn't win two weeks ago, but he was still a top-10 finisher and his record on this course reads just one missed cut in his last eight visits, which include a runners-up finish two years ago.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Kjeldsen tb Campbell -110; Willett tb Noren +110]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Paul Casey(28/1) e.w.
David Howell(66/1) e.w.
Richard Sterne(80/1) e.w.
Steve Webster(66/1) e.w.
Michael Campbell(66/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (2pts):

Victor Dubuisson to beat Richard Sterne +120 @ Boyle Sports
After his opening 62, I'm going to oppose Sterne in the 2nd round. It is just the third time that he has shot less than 64 in a Tour event: he followed 62 in the 3rd round of the 2007 Telkom PGA Championship with a round of 71; and he followed 61 in the 3rd round of the 2009 Africa Open with a round of 73. In his entire Tour career, he has held the 1st round lead just six times previously and the only time that he held on to the lead for another round was in the 2001 Graceland Challenge on the Southern Africa Tour. The last time that he led after 36 holes was in 2005 and the last time that he led after 54 holes was in 2007. I just don't see him repeating that form again tomorrow. Dubuisson is coming off a top-10 finish and should be a dependable player to side with, even though this play is entirely against Sterne.

David Howell to beat Richard Sterne +104 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Howell is another in good form - 6th and 22nd in the last two weeks - and he is a former winner of this event. Like Dubuisson, he should be able to post a reasonable score tomorrow and seal the win.

 

[Stanley]

Rund 3 play (2pts):

Stephen Gallacher to beat Richard Sterne +100 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James]
Continuing to oppose Sterne who holds a one-shot lead after second round 70, but the pressure will really be on him tomorrow with 40 players within six shots of him. At outlined above, the last time that he held the lead after 36 holes was in 2005, so it should be very difficult for him to continue to lead this event from the front. Gallacher is one shot back in 2nd place and is continuing his fine form on the course - he has made the cut in nine of the last ten years here and in the last two years alone he has finished 10th and 2nd on this course.

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Andy Sullivan to beat Jbr Kruger +110 @ Paddy Power and BetVictor [available generally]
Two players in 10th place on the leaderboard, but playing very differently this week. Sullivan ranks inside the top-10 for driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation so far, Kruger ranks outside the top-50 in all three of those stats. It all points to yet another good week from Sullivan who has three top-10 finishes in his last five European Tour events (including Q-School).

Stephen Gallacher to beat Richerd Sterne +110 @ Paddy Power [available generally]
A strange play for me to back a leader against the player in 2nd place, but this looks one course on which Gallacher can be relaxed enough to play well again under pressure tomorrow. Not only as he finished 10th and 2nd in the last two years here, as previously mentioned, but he is very familiar with the course as he comes here on holiday with his family. For Sterne, this is still part of his long-term recovery from injury, so being in contention in the final round is something with which he is unfamiliar - the last time that he started a final round in the top-3 was over four years ago.

Gregory Bourdy to beat Lorenzo Gagli -105 @ 5Dimes
Surprised to see Bourdy as the underdog in this matchup. He has finished 8th and 16th in the last three years here and has a top-3 finish in his last three starts. Gagli has neither and missed the cut in his previous visit. But the Frenchman's edge in this matchup is also much stronger in the final round - over the last year, he has a 8-2-1 h2h record against his opponent in the final round, including each of their last six common final rounds.