Round 1 plays (2pts):
Francesco Molinari to beat Shane Lowry -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Lowry won this event as an amateur in 2009, but he has only one top-20 finish in the last five years in this event, whereas Molinari has two top-10 finishes in his last three Irish Opens. Together with the form that has seen him finish 2nd and 5th in the last two weeks, he looks better placed to contend this week than Lowry's who confidence must be diminished after a poor run of form on the PGA Tour.
Nicolas Colsaerts to beat Pablo Larrazabal -110 @ 5Dimes
Two players in indifferent form, but there were signs of better play last week when sitting on top of the leaderboard during the 1st round (and finishing 22nd) and it was only his fourth start since returning from a two-month absence from the Tour. Larrazabal's form has been poor over the last two month and with just one top-25 finish in 12 attempts at the Open Championship and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, there is little evidence that he will play well on this links course. Colsaerts has two top-10 finishes in his last three Open Championships/Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, so he should fare better on this course.
George Coetzee to beat David Drysdale -110 @ 5Dimes
Coetzee is a proven links-player and should go close this week. Ignoring last week on a very different course, his previous four strokeplay finishes had been 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 1st. Over the same period, Drysdale has finished mc-55th-mc-56th-mc-dq, so this should really be a one-sided matchup.