Duke Doesn?t Scare Off Bettors

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Duke Doesn?t Scare Off Bettors

By David Sharp/SPORTSBETTING.COM

After two days of action, how does your Tournament bracket look heading into the weekend? Mine looks a little rough, thanks in large part to the shot of the tournament so far by Ty Rogers of Western Kentucky, knocking off Drake, who I had going to the Sweet Sixteen.

The opening day was a good one for the betting public in general, as favorites had a very good run on Thursday to kick-off the tournament. After the final buzzer sounded, favorites scored a 13-3 mark against the spread, giving round one in the war to the bettors, as the sports books took a pretty good hit.

The only underdogs to cover were Kansas State, UNLV and Belmont, who almost upset Duke as a double-digit dog.

How about Duke? After coming within seconds of being upset by #15-seed Belmont, they now face a competent West Virginia team that looked good disposing of Arizona. There was a lot of talk before the tournament on whether the Blue Devils were a legitimate #2-seed and obviously that chatter has only increased. My thoughts are that they are a weak #2, but a solid #3-seed. But Duke?s lineage gets them a bump where others might not.
They are a better team than the Mountaineers, but if they go cold from 3-point range, forget about it, we?ll see West Virginia playing Xavier in the Sweet Sixteen.

Duke is a 3.5-point favorite over the Mountaineers in this Saturday matchup. Talking to some bookmakers, so far it doesn?t look like the near-upset vs. Belmont has scared bettors off. Early betting volume at SPORTSBETTING.COM is coming in on the Blue Devils at a 66% clip.

For what it?s worth, I?m with the early pack, as I think Duke rights the ship a little and wins and covers vs. a team they should beat. Beyond the West Virginia game they really won?t have any significant edges against opponents.

I mentioned Xavier above, as the team the winner of Duke-W. Virginia will play next weekend, as that?s how I see it shaking out. Xavier is a 3-point favorite vs. Purdue in their Saturday matchup. SPORTSBETTING.COM betting trends have this one almost even in terms of early betting action. Purdue is receiving 52% of the volume, with Xavier at 48%.
I think Xavier enjoys a few clear matchup edges in this one, and will cover the number, moving ahead to face Duke.

Heading into Saturday?s tournament lineup two underdogs are getting a lot of attention from bettors are Notre Dame and UNLV. The Fighting Irish are getting 64% of all the action wagered on their matchup with Washington State. ND, who are a 2-point dog, come into this one off an impressive win over George Mason.

UNLV is a 13-point dog going up against #1-seed Kansas. I have to figure bettors liked what they saw from the Runnin Rebels on Thursday, as they swarmed Kent State, winning by 13. That is a big spread and UNLV is an #8-seed so they can play, but this set-up on the underdog makes me nervous. Kansas is focused on making a statement in this tourney, and want to blow opponents out?and they have the talent to do it vs. teams of UNLV?s caliber.

One favorite from Saturday?s card that bettors are hitting is Wisconsin. The Badgers are a 5-point favorite over Kansas State and are receiving 71% of the early betting action. I like this Wisconsin team and have them making an Elite 8 appearance (beating Georgetown in the Sweet Sixteen and then losing to Kansas in the round of eight). I think they cover this one.

Have a great weekend.
 
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