Madjackers,
I see a few people on Duke today and I just wanted to comment since I follow Duke very closely as my favorite team (went there and have been following since I went to high school). Anyway, I would definitely discourage going big on Duke today. Line started at 28, now at 29.5 at some places. I would recommend a small play on Davidson, or to tease Davidson. My rationale is as follows, copied from my post to ajoytoy:
My gut feeling is the line is a tad too high, I would pass or make a small play on Davidson. Duke has had a lengthy layoff, and Davidson always plays Duke tough. The game is also at an odd time for a Monday and students will be home for break. Davidson isn't a powerhouse, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and have kept their losses respectable (with the exception of their first game against Texas Tech). Duke is also not as high a scoring team as in recent years (although this is the best defensive team Duke has had in a very long time). I believe that if Davidson can score 50 points or more, Davidson will cover the spread. If Duke covers, I think it will only be by one or two points.
Duke is a tricky team to bet. They don't fare all too well ATS, and when they cover, it's usually by A LOT. I had big money on them when they played Texas because I knew they would come out ready to play and had a significant talent advantage over Texas. the line was too low because Texas had played a poor schedule and was basically overrated because of their convincing wins. That's beside the point. Either way, I would recommend passing on this game or taking Davidson small. I see a 20-25 point win for Duke. I think you will see that Duke outscores Davidson big time in one half, and plays them pretty even in the other. No way of telling which half will be the "blowout half". If I had to bet the total of 147, it would be under given the recent history of these two teams and the fact Duke won't score in the 90's as much as the past several years.
I'm going to put a disclaimer on this and say that I could definitely be wrong on everything I have said, it's just my opinion. So....
Davidson +29.5 .5 unit
Good luck to all!
Grey
I see a few people on Duke today and I just wanted to comment since I follow Duke very closely as my favorite team (went there and have been following since I went to high school). Anyway, I would definitely discourage going big on Duke today. Line started at 28, now at 29.5 at some places. I would recommend a small play on Davidson, or to tease Davidson. My rationale is as follows, copied from my post to ajoytoy:
My gut feeling is the line is a tad too high, I would pass or make a small play on Davidson. Duke has had a lengthy layoff, and Davidson always plays Duke tough. The game is also at an odd time for a Monday and students will be home for break. Davidson isn't a powerhouse, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and have kept their losses respectable (with the exception of their first game against Texas Tech). Duke is also not as high a scoring team as in recent years (although this is the best defensive team Duke has had in a very long time). I believe that if Davidson can score 50 points or more, Davidson will cover the spread. If Duke covers, I think it will only be by one or two points.
Duke is a tricky team to bet. They don't fare all too well ATS, and when they cover, it's usually by A LOT. I had big money on them when they played Texas because I knew they would come out ready to play and had a significant talent advantage over Texas. the line was too low because Texas had played a poor schedule and was basically overrated because of their convincing wins. That's beside the point. Either way, I would recommend passing on this game or taking Davidson small. I see a 20-25 point win for Duke. I think you will see that Duke outscores Davidson big time in one half, and plays them pretty even in the other. No way of telling which half will be the "blowout half". If I had to bet the total of 147, it would be under given the recent history of these two teams and the fact Duke won't score in the 90's as much as the past several years.
I'm going to put a disclaimer on this and say that I could definitely be wrong on everything I have said, it's just my opinion. So....
Davidson +29.5 .5 unit
Good luck to all!
Grey
