dumb question

[Captain Armani]

I've already placed my wagers for this weekend. Going with the two favorites. Hate doing that, especially after a weekend where all the favorites won, and 3 out of the 4 covered rather easily. My dumb question is; do you guys look at previous favorite ATS results (especially in the playoffs) and do you use these results to help you make your final decisions for the following weekend? In other words, would you be less likely to bet Philly and Oak this coming weekend after all the favorites won last week? Looking for some help from some of the experienced guys on the board.

Capt.

 

[GM]

I don't believe in betting games based on prior weeks' trends, or other results within a same weekend, etc. In other words, having 3 of 4 favs covering last weekend doesn't make me think 1) The favs are doing great, I should bet on them this weekend, or 2) The dogs are really due, I should bet on them. Neither. Last week's ATS results have no (or virtually no) impact on this week's games.

Thru the regular season I see people say things like they will bet the dog on Monday because the dogs had such a great weekend. That line of thinking is just wrong I think. Completely unrelated events.

However, I am a believer at this time of year at looking at what has happened in past years in the same week. For example, Week 19 (last week) has historically been very good to favorites, and I can see some logic as to why. Week 20 (this week) in recent history has favored the dogs. Doesn't mean I will bet the dogs this weekend, but it is something I keep in mind. Actually, I'm already on Philly fairly heavily. The other game I am having trouble pulling the trigger on.

 

[Captain Armani]

thanks for the response GM.

I agree with you, that prior weeks results have no (virtually no) impact on the following week but, I tend to think twice about favorites covering consistently in the playoffs.

I hate to use the word 'public', I think it is overused on these boards but at the risk of sounding like a newbie, doesn't the public tend to favor or side with the favorites?? I love taking points in high profile games. Obviously I dont have figures backing this but I think that betting the ugly dogs agains high profile favorite teams in the long run is a good way to go. (this is just one factor in picking games; obviously I view matchups, trends, etc as well). My point is, assuming Vegas lost $$ with the favorites winning last week, am I to assume that the general public consensus would be 'hey, i went with philly and oak last week and they looked good...lets go with them again", hence leaving the door open for a cover? Again, I am picking Philly and Oak but I am a bit nervous as I feel that in the playoffs, Vegas is extra carefull in setting a line and the dogs may be due....or, am I just thinking too much?

 

[GM]

Sure, I agree with a lot of that. The public does tend to side with the favorites. And yes, a rookie who won with Philly or Oak last week will probably like them again this week. Then again, a rookie who won with TB might think the same thing.

The thing about this Philly game...I just cannot see Tampa Bay taking this game. Both teams have excellent defence, and with great D you've always got a shot to stay close in any game until it turns your way. However, the Eagles are the one hurdle they have not been able to get over. Until they prove otherwise, they are a bet-against in this situation for me.

I don't like taking favorites too often (see my tagline), but in certain cases I think exceptions must be made.

Good luck.

 

[gjn23]

Don't like betting trend blindly (especially those you mentioned)

However the following hold true most every year around this time:

1) take all dogs in bowl games prior to Jan 1
2) take all the home teams on round 2 of the NFL playoffs

It's crazy to think that this method, bet blindly no matter the situation, is a proven moeny machine....but it is.