Dunhill Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Justin Rose to win 14/1 e.w. @ Easybets and SIA
Retaining two of last week's selections even thought they returned a blank. Rose did get as high as 7th place in the final round before a late collapse, so hopefully it is only a matter of rustiness with his game. However, he was expected to improve this week simply because this event is being played in his birth place of Johannesburg. How much that has lifted his game previously is evidence by his 2nd, 1st and 7th place finishes in this event in the last three years. Let's hope 2004 is no different!

Brian Davis to win 25/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Davis makes his 2004 debut this week and it has been almost three months since he finished 3rd in the Volvo Masters. He is the type of player who tends to play very well in certain locations only and South Africa is one of them. Though he does tend to either miss cuts in this country or contend. He has finished no worse than 16th in five of his seven events in this country since 2000; on the other two occasions he either missed the cut or withdrew. Will take this price on a player who is very competitive when on his game.

Hennie Otto to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Paddy Power, BlueSq, BetDirect and Totalbet
Same price as last week and so will bite again. Presumably the odds are a little inflated because he failed to reach the weekend each year from 1999 to 2002, but he was in contention throughout the event last year until falling back to 23rd place in the final round. He is now a far better player than in previous years and should draw confidence from his ability to play well on this course last year. So having finished 16th last week with rounds of 66 and 65 sandwiching some quickly forgettable golf (including a 79!), he looks in good enough form to finally master this course.

 

[lostinamerica]

Steve Webster(50/1) for 1* e.w. @ Bet365

In contention and alongside the leader on the back nine on Sunday, Steve Webster was managing his game and his emotions like a Big Dog. And it came after a week of big talk about his game and his expectations. It was an epiphany I would not have believed if I had not witnessed it with my own eyes. I don't know how anyone who saw it could have missed it. This came from a guy that's among the core of players I have kept the closest tabs on over the last two seasons, a guy who during that time and in that same circumstance has been a train wreck, who by comparison could make Carl Pettersson, Niclas Fasth, Brian Davis, Bob Tway, Thomas Levet and members of that crowd, look like the Rock of Gibraltar.

In a GolfChannel interview after an opening round of 66, Webster discussed the work he had put in leading up to the event, and was matter of fact about his intentions for this year: It was time for him to win. He's got game, he can make putts with that claw style of his, and his swing was lovely all week. To hang tough all week and then play absolutely his finest golf alongside Immelman on Sunday was way past remarkable. What he gained from the experience is yet to be revealed.

For the stat minded: On the European Tour during the seven years from 1997-2003, Webster has 10 finishes in the Top 4 (plus an 11th one last week), although his best finish in 2003 was 8th in the Nordic Open in August. He is at home with the demands of playing golf in South Africa (whatever they may be), as 3 of those 11 Top 4 finishes were in the two events in South Africa. But the point I'm most interested in documenting is that 10 times from 2001-2003 Webster started the final round in the Top 10, and only once did he improve his position (from 4th to 2nd), while once he held his position (2nd to 2nd), and 8 times he backed up. Yet he has posted 13 scores of 68 or better in the 4th round from 2001-2003. I think my research on all those stats is accurate, but I wasn't thinking about no stinking stats while watching Webster do his thing down the stretch last week. Getting tossed front and center into the fray, he managed his game and his emotions like a Big Dog.

One step forward could well be followed by one step back. Maybe it was all a fleeting illusion. The strain of contending in an event is frequently not the ideal run-up to the next week's event, although there are well-taken exceptions to that rule, and it isn't like Webster faced the strain of having been on the lead for most of the week. Moreover, the guy has a noteworthy track record in South Africa, and he can't be happy about having missed the cut last year at Houghton (with which it's ample fairways and the shaping of shots around some strategically placed trees, grip and rip altitude, and necessity of making birdies and eagles, would seem suited to the strengths of his game). And although there were some windy conditions, it's not like the field was buffeted by relentless gales all week, and I was even impressed by the way he was wearing a towel around his neck and slowing everything down, like he believed this was just the start for an Englishman in the noon day African sun.

I was hoping against hope for 66/1, but 50/1 is what I was anticipating. Posted or unposted, I'm sure he will be featured in some of my other wagers this week. I'm nervously waiting to see his pairing on the draw. But I have no doubt Steve Webster is the wager for me.

GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Immelman 2u ew @ 7-1

I say its two weeks in a row. Too bad I didnt say that last week!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Brian Davis to beat Robert Karlsson +110 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Karlsson shot 76-76 last week to miss the cut by quite a distance and having missed the cut in his only other start in this event (1997), he looks one to oppose.

Maarten Lafeber to beat Robert Karlsson -125 @ Expekt
Opposing Karlsson again and this time with a player who simply does not miss cuts. His last weekend free was back July at the European Open.

Paul McGinley to beat Robert Karlsson -122 @ Pinnacle [3 units]
McGinley does miss cuts but not in South Africa. He has an excellent record in this country and on this course. He did not play last year, but from 2000 to 2002 he finished 5th, 16th, 5th. A fine 27th place finish last week after an opening 76 will have blown the cobwebs off his game and another top-20 finish looks in order.

Paul McGinley to beat Louis Oosthiuzen -110 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2 units]
Solid, but unspectaular form in South Africa from the young Oosthuizen. Just can't see it being enough against a player with proven ability on this track.

Paul McGinley to beat Charl Schwartzel -110 @ Bet365
Schwartzel has struggled since his 3rd place finish in last year's South African Open and he finished behind McGinley last week. Having missed the cut last year, there seems little reason to expect another big week from the young South African.

Bradley Dredge to beat Jean Hugo -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Hugo may have on this match by a single shot last week, but it should be different this week. They have both played this course in each of the last four years and Dredge has won every time. Plus Hugo has missed the cut in each of his last six European Tour events, including Q-School.

Alastair Forsyth to beat Mark Foster -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Foster had made the cut in less than a quarter of his European Tour starts when he won this event via a six-man playoff last year and while it changed his career, he hasn't improved his 'cuts made ratio' very much. While he was missing the cut last week, Forsyth was finishing 2nd and that shows the gulf between these two players despite what has happened at Houghton in the past.

Trevor Immelman to beat Steve Webster -143 @ BetandWin
Webster did finish 2nd last week, but he still behind Immelman and the English player is hardly noted for his consistency. In his last eight Tour events, he has a 2nd place finish, two further top-20 finishes and five missed cuts. Immelman does not show such inconsistency in his home country and should win this with ease.

Hennie Otto to beat Carlos Rodiles -111 @ BetandWin
With Rodiles having only ever played once in South Africa (45th last week and well behind Otto) and never on this course, he looks easily opposable, particularly with an outright selection.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Glad to see your thoughts on McGinley Stan. I thought he had some good odds on outrights when 1st dropped.

 

[british bulldog]

Dunhill Championship


1 point EW Rose 14/1

1 point EW Davis 25/1

1 point EW Jimenez 33/1

1 point Ew Otto 33/1

0.5 points EW Moseley 66/1

0.5 points EW Rodiles 80/1

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (1 unit e.w.)

Fichardt - 40-1 @ Victor Chandler
Webster - 50-1 @ Victor Chandler
Kingston - 50-1 @ Victor Chandler
D McGuigan - 150-1 @ Bet365
S Stuver - 100-1 @ Blue Square
S Hansen - 80-1 @ Victor Chandler
McGinley - 66-1 @ Victor Chandler (1.5 units e.w.)

Good Luck!

 

[sports student]

4th round:

Anders Hansen - 1/2 -138 over Vibe-Hastrup (bet365)
Jacqueline - 1/2 -125 over Siem (sportingbet)


not only taking the much highly rated player but in checking at the logs neither one of the go against have ever shown any ability to play under pressure in the final round for a good payday.

 

[Stanley]

Unlucky with Soren Hansen, lal2000

Outrights - Final update: 0-3; -3.00 units

Rose mc
Davis 33rd
Otto 64th

Not even a sniff of a place win. It can only get better next week!

Matchups - Final update: 7-2-0; +7.88 units

Davis/Karlsson WON by 6
Lafeber/Karlsson WON by 9
McGinley/Karlsson WON by 2
McGinley/Oosthuizen LOST by 1
McGinley/Schwartzel WON by 2
Dredge/Hugo WON by 9
Forsyth/Foster LOST by 5
Immelman/Webster WON by 4
Otto/Rodiles WON by 9

Another profitable week of matchups to compensate for some poor outright plays. All nine plays had been ahead after 18 holes, but poor 2nd rounds for McGinley and Forsyth denied the sweep at the cut.

Southern Africa Tour ytd
Outrights: 0-6; -6.00 units
Matchups: 11-3; +14.82 units

 

[lal2000]

Yeah Stan. Hansen's finish was something of a let-down, though the place return was not bad. Thought that storming James Kingston might be in there as well, just missing the money and finishing his last day with a 62. That boy should win somethng this year - keep your eye on him.

My big hopes for the weekend now are over in California - Skip Kendall and Paul Azinger (latter unposted), as well as Robert Gamez who, after his -12 on Friday still has it in him for a top 5 finish.