Dunhill Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (1pt):

Tim Clark to win 16/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes and Coral
Take out Ernie Els and Clark is the class player in this field. He ranks well inside the top-100 in the World Rankings and closed the PGA Tour out in very good form with finishes of 5th, 8th, 6th and 11th in four of his last six starts. Second in the Tour Championship on this course in 2002 with a very good record in his home country since he won the South African Open in 2002, he really should be Els' greatest rival this week.

Hennie Otto to win 66/1 e.w. @ William Hill
A lot of the young South African players struggle when they earn a place on the European Tour and Otto is no exception, but when they return to their home courses it is a different matter altogether. Take Charl Schwartzel as an example over the past couple of months. So ignoring his troubled form in Europe, Otto is worthy of support with finishes of 2nd, 6th and 1st in the last years at Leopard Creek. Having also recorded three wins and eight top-5 finishes in South Africa in the last two years, he really is one to side with in this country.

Thomas Aiken to win 100/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
The same may also be said about Aiken, but that will be in the future. The young 21-year-old has won three times in the his last seven starts in South Africa, so a career could well be beckoning on the European Tour or at least the Challenge Tour where he his last finish was 6th in Italy in July. This is certainly a step up in opposition, but he did still finish 7th in the Tour Championship on this course in February so he does seem capable of contending in this company.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Tim Clark to beat Marcel Siem -154 @ Centrebet [2pts]
These two has played in the same event six times and Clark has won on every occasion. With the erratic Siem rusty and having no course form, this should be seven this week.

James Kingston to beat Mathias Gronberg -128 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Gronberg finished his PGA Tour season with ten straight missed cuts to fall from safety on the Money List to losing his Tour Card. He will be eligible to play in some events in 2005, but his confidence will have suffered greatly and he didn't even try to regain his Card at Q-School. Life back on the European Tour starts with this very minor event and it will be very easy for him to struggle. Easy to side with a player who finished in the top-5 in Hong Kong Open last week, in his last Southern Africa Tour event last month and in the top-10 in two starts on this course.

Andrew McLardy to beat Mathias Gronberg -110 @ BlueSq [2pts]
Similar story here. McLardy has won two of his last four starts in South Africa, including one on this course where he also finished 4th in 2002. A sizeable home advantage for McLardy who plays well in his home country and home will seem a very long way away for Gronberg at this time of the year.

Hennie Otto to beat Mathias Gronberg -111 @ Expekt [2pts]
Another one to side with in South Africa so he is included here as well as in the outrights. Great record on this course and in this country, Otto is the player to back in South Africa.

Lee Slattery to beat Matthew King -110 @ SkyBet [3pts]
Two graduates from the Challenge Tour, but they shouldn't be on an equal footing. Slattery finished 1st on the Challenge Tour rankings in 2004 and played only two-thirds as many event as King. Add in the fact that Slattery has travelled down to play on the Southern Africa Tour each year and as such as three top-30 finishes on this course and even if these two players were equal in ability, Slattery is the player with the home advantage.

Lee Slattery to beat Alessandro Tadini -110 @ Stan James [2pts]
Same in this match with Tadini who finished 2nd in the rankings behind Slattery in 2004. He has never even played in South Africa, so even though he is coming off a top-10 finish in Hong Kong, it is the Englishman who should prevail under South African conditions.

Titch Moore to beat Bradford Vaughan -118 @ Centrebet [2pts]
Moore has finished ahead of Vaughan in each of the last two events at Leopard Creek and is coming off a win in his last Southern Africa Tour event. Too much in his favour to be ignored in this match.
 

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Clark 11th
Otto 39th
Aiken wd

No return, but never looked likely after the first round. Could have been very different with a decent opener from Clark though - he shot 77 on Thursday but still finished only four shots out of the playoff.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 4-3-0; -0.12pts

Clark/Siem LOST by 2
Kingston/Gronberg LOST by 11
McLardy/Gronberg TIED (Loss)
Otto/Gronberg WON by 1
Slattery/King WON by 3
Slattery/Tadini WON by 3
Moore/Vaughan WON (Vaughan wd)

Two steps forward, one step back. Had a huge stroke of luck when Gronberg got wet and closed with an eight to hand a one-shot victory to Otto, but then an hour later McLardy also failed to stay dry and took six shots on the last to turn a winning play into a losing one as ties lose at BlueSq. A five from McLardy would have brought the event into profit and that had never looked likely!

Southern Africa Tour final ytd
Outrights: 0-21; -21.00pts
Matchups: 20-8; +18.27pts
 
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