Dunhill Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (0.75 units):

Tim Clark to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Coral and UKBetting
Thankful he didn't win last week, but he should have done. He never showed any sign of wilting and it took a brilliant by Immelman to catch him and win the playoff. Finished a lowly 52nd on his debut here last year, but that was the week after winning the South African Open and so long as the playoff loss (or the 16th hole on day 3) is not too much of a scar, this should be another fine performance from the South African who has finished in the top-5 in five of his last eight Sunshine Tour events.

Bradley Dredge to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Staggering price! Bet365 have the next best price at 22/1! Solid top-20 finish last week with two sub-70 rounds at the weekend is enough evidence that he has retained some of the confidence he accrued when finishing the 2002 season with three straight top-5 finishes. He has decent form at Houghton with three top-20 finishes in four visits, but he is a much better player now and should again go close.

Brian Davis to win 33/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Another inflated price from Easybets, though not as much as for Dredge, and enough to edge out a top-5-only play on Webster (10/1 Five Dimes). Finished 8th last week to continue his impressive run in South Africa - five top-20 finishes in his last six starts in this country. His record in this event is typical of the Londoner, he had two top-10 finishes in 2000 and 2001, but missed the cut in 1998, 1999 and 2001. Bar a six missed cut streak last summer, he has become more consistent in the last year and looks a decent player to side with on outright bets.
 

Ian

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Dredge at 33/1 is certainly a big price but no account there.

Have stuck to backing players I feel are/were overpriced
Wall 100/1 - staggerring price that didn't last at Hills
Forsyth 80/1 - course should in theory suit him
Oosthuizen - this weeks Schwartzel?? 100/1
Dodd 100/1 - good last couple of finishes
 

steved

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Gone for 1 ew Coltart, 40/1 (StanJ)..played well last week until he was interviewed about becoming father in December, then had bad day. Ended up 8th though. 12th here last year on course that may take getting used to.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (0.75 units):

Andrew Coltart to beat Paul Casey -111 @ Expekt
Coltart has been in good form since the end of last year and continued in the same vein last week to finish 8th despite a poor 3rd round. With good course form as well, he looks set for another decent pay cheque and a win over Casey who missed the cut last week in his first start on South African soil.

Brian Davis to beat Ian Poulter +100 @ Intertops
With indifferent form last week and on two previous visits to Houghton, the erratic Poulter is easily opposed with one of the outright selections.

Steve Webster to beat Nick Dougherty -118 @ Easybets
Webster was almost an outright selection after some very impressive performances at Houghton, including 3rd in 1999. His form seems to be slowly returning with a top-25 finish last week and it is still better than that of Dougherty who has missed five of his last ten cuts.

Scott Drummond to beat Alan McLean -111 @ BetandWin
Both had difficult seasons last year, but the return to South African soil should raise Drummond's game. In four starts there last year, he secured three top-10 finishes, including 2nd in the Dimension Data Pro-Am, and a further 33rd place in the Telkom PGA Championship. McLean played well here last year, but he missed the cut last week and in Southern Africa events in the past year, Drummond leads McLean 5-0-0.

Simon Dyson to beat Titch Moore -110 @ BetInternet
Moore did win two lesser Southern Africa Tour events at the end of 2002, but he closed with a 82 last week and has a very poor record in this event. Dyson is a much more consistent player and in the five Southern Africa Tour events that he has played, he has finished ahead of Moore on every occasion.

Jean-Francois Remesy to beat Titch Moore -111 @ BetandWin
Remesy had a very consistent finish to last season with six top-30 finishes in his last seven starts, including 5th in the Hassan II Trophy. With a top-20 finish last year, he looks set for another decent finish this week and, like Dyson, he has a good head-to-head record against Moore. In their last five joint events on this Tour, Remesy leads 4-1-0.

David Howell to beat Hennie Otto -118 @ Expekt
Very easy to oppose Otto this week. Has shown some decent form in his last three events, he obviously hates Houghton: in four previous visits, he has missed three cuts and withdrew after the 1st round on the other occasion! Howell's form at Houghton is good and is playing well at the moment.
 

milpalm

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Outrights plays:

Howell 50/1
Davis 25/1
Dredge 25/1

Matchup:
T Clark over Poulter 1.85 Unibet

Stan used the word erratic about Poulter and I agree. His record in South Africa is not good. Clark should be the clear favourite in this one.
 

hoss

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3 plays this week : all opposing obvious players..nothing new to add that hasn't already been said, although I am worried that all 3 of the players I'm backing go out late.:(

2pts Van der walt v Otto 9/10 Lads
2pts Howell v Hugo 9/10 Lads
1pt Dyson v Otto 10/11 Sp Odds

glta
hoss:D
 

Stanley

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Mid-point update:

Coltart/Casey LOST by 2
Davis/Poulter LOST by 6
Webster/Dougherty LOST by 2
Drummond/McLean WON by 7
Dyson/Moore WON by 16
Remesy/Moore WON by 15
Howell/Otto Trails by 5

Clark 13th
Dredge 1st
Davis mc

Decent position at the cut. Split the matchups, but could have been better. All these losses had players within two shots of making the cut so their opponents were there to be opposed this week. Just need Howell to reverse a five-shot deficit over the weekend to avoid an overall loss on the matchups. Excellent comeback from Clark after a disastrous start to his 2nd round and we should get at least one payout from the outrights this week.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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I've seen it all now.I'm thinking Vaughn has birdied last hole all 3 days.Only possible way he doesn't get at least full share of place is if he pars and 2 of remaining 4 have to eagle.No chance? Wrong!:mad:

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
OK Sometime please tell me 5dimes is trying to slip it to me for the 4th consecutive week on a grading. Tell me this isn't correct.
Surely the tie doesn't reduce it from $150 net to $25

Alfred Dunhill Championship - Top 5 - Bradford Vaughan 15/1 $10.00 $150.00 W $35.00 $25.00 hmh
 
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steved

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with 5 players tied for second, that makes it 5 players for 4 places (2nd to 5th). so you should get 4/5ths or 0.8 of your stake at the winning odds. $8 x 15 = $120.

You can work it the other way as well, you get 4/5 or 0.8 of winnings to full stake, so $150 x 0.8 again = $120
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Thanks Steved Ididn't think they were correct. I went to Ians charts but didn't know if it made difference if all tied for same spot.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
They sure have made lots of errors on grading of late but always are prompt at correcting them.
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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I'll be greatful for anything over $25:shrug:
I sent query,will let you know when(if) they change grading and amount they paid.
Did anyone see what transpired on his final hole in regulation.He had birdied it 3 previous days,hope he didn't miss a short one,not that it makes any difference other than for whinning purposes:D
 

bettingmad

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DTB,
I assumed you meant you had 15/1 for him to finish in the Top 5. But when did you put the bet on? Looking at your 'slip' what is the $35.00 and $25.00 near the end? The 15/1 is not for the win is it and the $35 or $25 just for a place?
 

Stanley

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Final update:

Matchups: 4-3-0; +0.53 units

Howell/Otto WON by 1

Outrights: 0-3; -2.25 units

Clark 12th
Dredge 12th

Disappointing weekend. Howell did come from behind to beat Otto, but should have got one home in the outrights.

Southern African Tour ytd
Matchups: 8-5; +1.76 units
Outrights: 1-5; +1.88 units

BTW, I think Steved was right first time. You should win $120 plus get 4/5 of your stake back as well. The bet was just to finish in the top-5.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Stans is correct it was to place and has not yet been corrected.
Here is ledger of all 4 outrights on that event.

Alfred Dunhill Championship - Top 5 - Bradford Vaughan 15/1 $10.00 $150.00 W $35.00 $25.00
Alfred Dunhill Championship - Top 5 - James Kingston 13/1 $10.00 $130.00 L $0.00 ($10.00)
Alfred Dunhill Championship - Top 5 - Mark McNulty 10/1 $10.00 $100.00 L $0.00 ($10.00)
Alfred Dunhill Championship - Top 5 - Steve Webster 10/1 $10.00 $100.00 L $0.00 ($10.00
 
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