Dunhill Links Championship

Stanley

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Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Henrik Stenson to win 25/1 e.w. @ William Hill and Victor Chandler
In contrast to the Chrysler Classic, where players who played in the President's Cup are avoided, this is not the case with the Seve Trophy. This is a much more casual affair and involves a high proportion of the Tour's leading players and one of the stars of the event was Stenson who was undefeated in his five matches. But it was merely an extension of the form that has seen him finish in the top-15 in five of his last six events, with the only blemish being the PGA Championship (47th). With a 6th place finish in this event two years ago and a 34th place finish in the Open Championship this summer at St. Andrews, he could go one better than his last event and win this week.

Paul McGinley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
McGinley played last week and only lost once, but that was a single hole loss to Remesy & Levet in the opening day fourballs and he really had very little help from his partner, Padraig Harrington. As with Stenson, it was merely an extension of his previous form as he had finished 3rd in the NEC Invitational and 6th in the BMW International Open in his last two strokeplay events and had finished 2nd in the HSBC World Match Play Championship two weeks ago. His course form may not look too impressive, but he did hold the lead heading into the final round (and after the 2nd round) in the inaugural event in 2001. He is playing well enough to be in that position again this week.

Brian Davis to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Paddy Power and Boyle Sports
Davis had held the first round lead in that inaugural event and though he fell back to finish 13th, it would be his lowest finish in this event. In the last three years, he has finished 7th, 6th and 12th which makes 50/1 appear rather generous. And given that his PGA Tour form this season has been good enough to secure his Tour Card for another season and that the last time he returned to compete on this Tour, he finished 2nd, he does represent decent value this week.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Pharlap Was wondering if at your convenience if you are Stan could elaborate a little more on the spread betting for just match bets--72 and 18 so us unfamiliar can take baby steps to get aclumated. :) Did read what I could on Stans site. Might try an get my feet wet at Sportsacumen as have built up modest balance there on regular match bets but they have not put any up past 2 weeks.
 

pharlap

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Hi DTB...they dont do much spreadbetting on 72 hole matchups....at least not at Sportsacumen who only do fixed odds for the 72 hole matchups....others do (like SportingIndex in the UK) but they tend to be a straight bet on the number of strokes by which player A will beat player B thus working a bit differently from the 18 hole spreads which are more leveraged.

So,basically I stick with the 18 hole spreads.

As you are probably aware they are two-way markets (ie you can buy or sell).

eg Last week the market for the Estes/Lowery matchup was 3-6 for the first round. So you could support Estes by "buying" at 6, or support Lowery by "selling" at 3. I sold at 3 to support Lowery to beat Estes. Luckily he did salute by 2 stokes. The result is calculated by giving 10 points for the win and 3 points for every stroke won by. In this case it means a result of 16 points total,PLUS the 3 points I received for selling the spread...grand total of 19 points. Thus I received 19 * whatever my stake was
(by contrast anyone who supported Estes would have lost 16 points PLUS the 6 points they paid to buy the spread...total of 22 * whatever their stake).

And thats about it really. Its not much different to fixed odds betting really in that you still need to take a side. The only difference is that you dont know how much you stand to win or lose when you place your bet because that is determined by the margin of victory/defeat. So you need to be careful with your staking. From my experience the average result is somewhere around 20 points....so you can win or lose 20 times your stake pretty easily....sometimes much more.

Overall I think they are a better way of playing 18 hole matchups than the fixed odds markets for a couple of reasons...(1) Many fixed odds markets for 18 holes are 3-balls.....I prefer a straight matchup as you find in the spreads...its hard enough to choose between two guys, let alone 3; (2) By my simple mathematics they are a fairly efficient market with just a 3 point spread (theoretically, on average you lose 1.5 points per play assuming they are good market makers) and an average final result of around 20 points.....although smarter people than me may argue otherwise.

Anyway....let me know if I can explain anything better.
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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Thanks Pharlap --a little embarrassed that I think I've ask about this for 3rd time now. -- I keep thinking of the upside but when considering the down side get reluctant as usual. Its something about the unknown that goes against my nature. Probably best just to sit back and root for you. I do appreciate your taking the time to explain. Will print it and put it in file with Stans for reference in case I build up the nerve down the road. :)
 

lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
OUTRIGHTS:

Colin Montgomerie(28/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Steve Webster(80/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Paul Lawrie(100/1) e.w. @ Bet365


MATCHUPS:

Sterne(-135) over Schwartzel (Tournament) @ 5dimes
Montgomerie(-115) over McDowell (Tournament) @ 5dimes


GL
 

pharlap

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18 hole spread bet

Remesy/ Beem 2-5
Sell at 2 to be with Beem for 0.25 unit
At SportingIndex


(you know you are pushing the envelope when you are supporting Rich Beem in a head-to-head :))
 

Stanley

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FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -0.42pts

Stenson 3rd
McGinley 41st
Davis 28th

Stenson had a good chance to win this event or at least earn a playoff, but bogeys on the 16th and 17th on Sunday ended his challenge. He finished two shots behind Monty. Had looked as though Davis would be the main contender, but a 77 around the usually-easy Kingsbarn ended his challenge a day earlier.

European Tour ytd: 14-54; -0.15pts
 
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