Dunhill Links Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

David Howell to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetFred
Four years ago, Harrington followed up victory in the Ryder Cup with a victory in this event as the adrenalin from The Belfry carried over into this week. He was considered for selection, but this will be his fourth rather than third consecutive week of tournament golf and he has not been very good from tee-to-green, so the 'Ryder Cup win' angle throws up Howler instead. He was 4th in his last European Tour start before the Ryder Cup, was 2nd heading into the weekend last week and can boast finishes of 3rd, 5th and 6th in the last five years of this event. Even last year, when he didn't finish so highly, he was leading the event after the 1st round. He'll get a well-earned rest after this event and will want to keep up his momentum.

Ian Poulter to win 20/1 e.w. available generally
Retaining Poulter as a selection after he finished 2nd, albeit a long way behind Tiger. This is an event dominated by home players - the five winners have all been Scottish, Irish or English - and that is to be expected when they are competing on Scottish links in October. But Poulter's form in Scotland does beyond his form in this event (16th and 3rd in the last three years) and at St Andrews (11th in last year's Open Championship) as he has finished 5th, 10th, 4th and 14th in his last four Scottish Opens. Add in his current form and the motivation of being overlooked for the Ryder Cup, and he should go close once again this week.

Soren Kjeldsen to win 100/1 e.w. available generally
Kjeldsen may not be a 'home' player, but his record in Scotland is worthy of note. He has made the cut in all four attempts in this event and improved his finishing position on every occasion, finishing 13th last year. Plus, he won the 2003 Diageo Championship around Gleneagles. And now having come nicely into form - he finished 4th in his last European Tour outing, the European Masters, ranking 3rd in greens in regulation that week - he certainly warrants shorter odds than 100/1.

 

[phar.lap]

72 hole matchup

McDowell -122 to beat McGinley
At Pinnacle

 

[lostinamerica]

Last Week:

- - My BetFred account cancelled, golfinggods not responding to my concerns, 5dimes not offering a place option, and a software glitch at sportingbet that rejects my wagers like they didn't even register (except on rare occasions that no one can explain), means I'm down to bet365 as my only out for outrights after starting the year with five outs. 'Tis hard to take, and something that has to get rectified before I crank up for a new season in January, but the desperate truth lies in my fears that the incredible shrinking will poof me to oblivion rather than reverse itself.

Ten Minutes Ago at Bet365:

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Not a good day. Back later.


Garrido, Tunnicliff, Poulter, Canonica, McGrane, Els, Ferrie, Lawrie(Pa), Kjeldsen, FWIW.



GL

 

[ridle]

1/4 1-5:
Sterne 200/1 Gen.
Ferrie 125/1 Gen.
Lafeber 125/1 Gen.
Foster 300/1 Fred
Jeppesen 400/1 Stan James
Haig 400/1 Betdirect
Otto 400/1 Sportingbet

 

[lostinamerica]

Back later.

The extra units of profit recently banked on Stenson, Poulter, Poulter and Durant, in the absence of due diligence and while scaling back, seem a winfdall, but will do nicely to rationalize (and finance) some excessive speculation this week on an event I've had success with in the past, featuring links golf which I always enjoy capping and watching, and seeing few at the head of the market that scare me off from having a go. I just happened to tick off a lot of names, and two days later wasn't convinced I was miles away with my thinking. I would not proceed if I thought I was forcing anything . . . By contrast, all the many names I have ticked for consideration for Greensboro have somehow seemed less appealing as the week dragged on, until tonight when I don't know who to jettison . . . An early $20 of wagers at Bet365, a combination of persistence/luck in spreading $60 at sportingbet during a brief interlude when the software glitch didn't kick in, topping of with $40 of win only at 5dimes, and wasting $50 from my golfinggods account, I managed to squeeze out wagers on all my plays, but it took for freakin' ever.


Outrights:


Ignacio Garrido(175/1) e.w.
- - Absolutely my top choice . . . Hovering on my radar since the Tour returned to Europe, then Garrido rocketed to the top of the leaderboard on a very linksy KLM course, but one which to my thinking seemed poorly-suited because of it's confining characteristics. The weekend backsliding followed, not surprising because it involved such unfamiliar rarified air, and arguably inevitable because of the venue, and in that wake my thought process was to step back and wait a while. Along came Espana in September, and while consciously looking for a top choice (or two) to play among the home contingent, I literally opted for transplanted resident Tunnicliff over citizen Garrido as my choice, and we know what happened . . . I think that if you look closely it's easy to detect an affinity for links conditions, and the impression in viewing various telecasts this year is that Mr. Long-Sleeves is finally getting his game/swing to come around again, visible in his play (notably marked improvements in reducing some extremely wild and destructive driving), and in his own upbeat chatter as relayed by the commentators. With the courses set up for the amateurs this week, I think it's even more conducive to Garrido's abilities and mentality.


Miles Tunnicliff(125/1) e.w
- - Still hovering on my radar as being reasonably close, up from my rating of a "go-against" until late summer, and any prospects of raw and deteriorating conditions will be welcomed as value enhancements.


Ian Poulter(18/1) e.w.
- - The 18/1 winning marker stayed right on the table for further dividends at 40/1 and rides again, and with fair expectation rather than mere hope.


Emanuele Canonica(200/1) e.w.
- - I'll take that big price with a player substantially beyond where he was as a golfer at the start of 2005, trying to consolidate any such progress before this year is out, and it's nothing like Gleneagles, but it is Scotland. Give 'em heck.


Damien McGrane(125/1) e.w.
- - Have heard some gushing about his immediate prospects during some fairly recent broadcasts, and I had to concur based on my viewing. This seems a solid spot.


Ernie Els(+750) e.w.
- - Enough big outsiders to still allow this wager, based solely on the odds of Ernie finally enjoying some carryover in working his way out of the doldrums.


Kenneth Ferrie(125/1) e.w.
- - Popped to mind not on basis of weather, but suitability of his game to St. Andrews and the companion venues, but maybe their is a correlation that enhances his chances. The Home of Golf seems about the right spot to re-join the plot that is the 2006 season, at least if not too injury hindered.


Paul Lawrie(125/1) e.w.
- - Given the track record of winners and contenders, I had to focus on the Scots as a group to arrive at a selection, and I thought I would come up with a different choice I preferred, but it turns out I was wrong in anticipating someone - anyone - else.


Soren Kjeldsen(80/1) e.w.
- - I had to tack him on for the same reasons I opted for a play at KLM, and after making an initially small wager I saw Stan's reasoning for a play and thought to myself that maybe I've learned something from the master.


GL

 

[Stanley]

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Howell mc
Poulter 22nd
Kjeldsen 8th

Aaargh! Only after the event has started does it become known that Howell and Poulter are carrying injuries into this event (shoulder and ankle respectively) and the player who was replaced by Howell in the 'Ryder Cup win' angle, Harrington, goes on to win by five shots at 22/1!

European Tour ytd: 11-55; -8.67pts