Outright plays (1.5 units):
Sergio Garcia to win 12/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Very surprised to see such a large price from Stan James - best price of 8/1 elsewhere. He has played in this event twice, finishing 2nd on both occasions (1999 and 2002), the first via a playoff loss to Thomas Bjorn and the second by a single shot. He has played in one other Japan Tour event in between - the 2001 Casio World Open - and finished 3rd in that event, so his ability to play in Japan cannot be doubted. His form this year can be doubted, but it is noticeable that in three of his last four events, he has finished 12th in the American Express Championship after being 1st round leader, 6th in the Open de Madrid after opening with a 65 and 7th in the Volvo Masters. He is certainly approaching the form that should keep up his impressive record in Japan.
Shingo Katayama to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Katayama already has an impressive record in Japan - he has finished in the top-3 of the Japan Tour Money List each year since 2000 and has won twice this year. He is in good form with a win, a 2nd place and a 3rd place finish in his last five starts and is a former winner of this event. Can't see him being too far from the leaderboard on Sunday.
David Gossett to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Victor Chandler
Rather more speculative play here. Gossett has played in this event once (2001) and played well. He was 2nd after 36 holes and played with Duval in the final group before struggling for one round. He still managed a top-10 finish though and was a creditable 12th in his other Japan Tour appearance - the 2002 Suntory Open. His form has been patchy this year on the PGA Tour, but there have been clear signs of improvement in the last few months and in an event that has been kind to non-Japanese players, he should not be at these odds.
Sergio Garcia to win 12/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Very surprised to see such a large price from Stan James - best price of 8/1 elsewhere. He has played in this event twice, finishing 2nd on both occasions (1999 and 2002), the first via a playoff loss to Thomas Bjorn and the second by a single shot. He has played in one other Japan Tour event in between - the 2001 Casio World Open - and finished 3rd in that event, so his ability to play in Japan cannot be doubted. His form this year can be doubted, but it is noticeable that in three of his last four events, he has finished 12th in the American Express Championship after being 1st round leader, 6th in the Open de Madrid after opening with a 65 and 7th in the Volvo Masters. He is certainly approaching the form that should keep up his impressive record in Japan.
Shingo Katayama to win 16/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
Katayama already has an impressive record in Japan - he has finished in the top-3 of the Japan Tour Money List each year since 2000 and has won twice this year. He is in good form with a win, a 2nd place and a 3rd place finish in his last five starts and is a former winner of this event. Can't see him being too far from the leaderboard on Sunday.
David Gossett to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James and Victor Chandler
Rather more speculative play here. Gossett has played in this event once (2001) and played well. He was 2nd after 36 holes and played with Duval in the final group before struggling for one round. He still managed a top-10 finish though and was a creditable 12th in his other Japan Tour appearance - the 2002 Suntory Open. His form has been patchy this year on the PGA Tour, but there have been clear signs of improvement in the last few months and in an event that has been kind to non-Japanese players, he should not be at these odds.
