Dunlop Phoenix Tournament

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Shingo Katayama to win 25/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods
The most international field of the Japan Tour season, but this is still not an event dominated by the internationals: Japan Tour players have won in five of the last ten years and Tiger Woods could only manage 8th on his only previous visit in 2002. That means better value odds on the Japan Tour players and none moreso than on Katayama who won this event in 2000. He has finished inside the top-8 in ten of his last eleven Japan Tour starts and tops the Japan Tour stats in no less than 13 of the 29 different categories, including Money Ranking and Scoring Average. He is simply the best player in Japan and should not be at these odds in his home country.

Toru Taniguchi to win 33/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Taniguchi is not too far behind either. He ranks 2nd in the Tour Money List, won two events on Tour last month and has finished in the top-10 in each of his last four starts. With top-15 finishes in each of the last four years around this course as well, he is clearly a player who should feature at some stage this week.

Hideki Kase to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
The 44-year-old Kase is playing his best golf for years. Not only did he win the Suntory Open in September and has finished in the top-10 in the last three weeks, but he has finished in the top-10 in eight out of his last thirteen starts. He also finished in the top-10 last year despite a final round 74, but in this form he looks far more likely to continue challenging for the title and so warrants support at these odds.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Toru Taniguchi to beat Robert Allenby -105 @ Five Dimes and Pinnacle [2pts]
Don't necessarily think that Allenby will play poorly this week, rather that he has no course experience and his only venture onto the Japan Tour resulted in him finishing 36th in last year's Taiheiyo Masters. This should be no more than a warm-up event for Allenby before the much more-important Australian Open next week. Should be a win for the dependable Taniguchi on his home Tour.

Thomas Bjorn to beat Robert Allenby -105 @ Centrebet [2pts]
With 2nd in the American Express Championship, when he finished 23 shots ahead of Allenby, and 11th in the Volvo Masters last month, Bjorn is slowly reclaiming some of the form that has seen him win this title on two occasions (1999 and 2003). With such a record on this course, Bjorn should be the more-motivated.
(also available at Paddy Power)

Thomas Bjorn to beat Stewart Cink +130 @ Pinnacle
Similar story here with Bjorn finishing 13 shots ahead of Cink when they last met (American Express Championship) and the American having never played in Japan. That certainly levels the playing field and makes these odds rather surprising. SkyBet make Bjorn the favourite in this match!
(also available at Skybet, Expekt and Bet365)

Shingo Katayama to beat Stewart Cink -104 @ Five Dimes
So a similar theme here. A very dependable player on Japanese soil armed with good odds against a player who has no experience in the region and whose motives for playing are questionable (i.e. money-related) relative to representing his country in the World Cup.

Todd Hamilton to beat Alex Cejka +105 @ Pinnacle [2pts]
Cejka is another who has turned his back on representing his country to chase the yen. He has not played in Japan since the 1999 Casio World Open when he finished 41st and so with no course experience he should hardly be the favourite against a player who has lots of experience on this Tour. Hamilton may not have had a great record on this course, but he has made two important steps up the ladder of world golf this year with victories in Florida and Scotland and this will be his first event back in Japan since those victories. He should get a very warm welcome and raise his game still further.
(also available at Centrebet and Paddy Power)

Craig Parry to beat Alex Cejka -105 @ Five Dimes [2pts]
With a 7-4-1 h2h record against Cejka in 2004 and lots of experience in Japan, including a top-10 finish here last year, Parry should warm up for his national Open with a good performance this week. He should have a decisive advantage over Cejka in Japan.

Craig Parry to beat Carlos Franco +110 @ Pinnacle
Will take these odds for a small play against Franco as well. He has not played in Japan in the last five years and the last time he played on this course was back in 1997. Such 'home' advantage for Parry tips this matchup decisively in his favour.
(also available at Paddy Power)

Steven Conran to beat Ryoken Kawagishi -125 @ Paddy Power [2pts]
Both players in good form, but easier to back the player who has a 12-4-0 h2h lead over his opponent in the seven months.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

4th round
Conran to beat Baddeley -120 (ties push) 5dimes

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -3.00pts

Katayama 17th
Taniguchi 8th
Kase 44th

Another top-10 finish without a payout. Taniguchi closed with a 64 to finish two shots out of the places, but all three were struggling after a slow start to this event and the winner looked to be decided before the weekend.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 7-1-0; +9.00pts

Taniguchi/Allenby WON by 1
Bjorn/Allenby WON by 2
Bjorn/Cink WON by 11
Katayama/Cink WON by 6
Hamilton/Cejka WON by 1
Parry/Cejka WON by 10
Parry/Franco WON by 3
Conran/Kawagishi LOST by 3

This is why I prefer 72-hole match betting over 18-holers! These look set for a loss in each of the three days and especially before the weekend, but in 72-hole match betting there is time for the cream to rise to the top and they did this weekend. Rather fortunate to win all the close matches, but I would never have thought that 4th place for Conran would still not be enough for him to win his match.

Japan Tour ytd
Outrights: 3-21; +0.38pts
Matchups: 9-3; +7.80pts