Accuscore
Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Both the New Orleans and Philadelphia enter this Monday Night showdown desperate to turn around their disappointing seasons. The Saints are coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Broncos, while the Eagles enter after a 30-17 loss to th Falcons. Philadelphia coach Andy Reid decided not to make any quarterback changes and will stick with Michael Vick, at least for one more game. AccuScore simulations project a New Orleans victory 65 percent of the time with an average score of 30-24. The Saints cover the -3 spread 57 percent of the time, and get a big win (10 points or more) approximately 42 percent of the time.
The Saints offense currently ranks fifth in total yards per game (388.6 yards). Although they are first in passing yards (316 per game), they are last in rushing yards (72.6 per game). The Eagles are ranked 10th in rush defense. With Darren Sproules out due to a broken hand, the Saints? ground attack will suffer even more. According to ESPN, ?in the last two seasons, the versatile Sproles leads all running backs in third-down receptions and yards per touch.? The Saints are known for their pass first, everything else last approach, making the ground game a low priority when discussing this game.
What the Saints lack on the ground is compensated for with their passing game. This season, quarterback Drew Brees has thrown for 2,310 yards, 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions with a QB rating of 93.0. He will be looking to bounce back after a subpar performance last week when he completed only half his attempts and threw for a season-low 213 yards. AccuScore simulations project 315 yards, at least two scores, and a QB rating of 98.2.
Brees? favorite targets all season have been wide receiver Marques Colston (40 receptions, 580 yards, 5 TDs), and tight end Jimmy Graham (30 receptions, 315 yards, 4 TDs). Eagle cornerback Nhamdi Asomugha will most likely cover Colston, a matchup that favors Asomugha due to Colston?s lack of speed. Graham, who caught 5 balls for 63 yards and a touchdown in last week?s game against Denver, is a matchup nightmare for the Philadelphia defense. AccuScore projects 74 yards and 58 yards for Colston and Graham respectively. Although the Saints? offense struggled against Denver?s secondary, it will have a much better performance against the Eagles who have struggled to defend the pass.
On the other side, we have a Philly team desperate to quiet the critics. Their best shot at the win will come from running the ball. New Orleans ranks 31st in the league in run defense (second last), giving up over 170 yards per contest. LeSean McCoy, the Eagles' Pro Bowl running back, has 504 yards rushing on 127 carries along with 28 receptions for 134 yards. McCoy is a threat on every single play, and with Vick?s propensity to turn the ball over, the Eagles might as well let McCoy run wild. Let him carry it 25-30 times against the horrendous New Orelans rush defense. AccuScore simulations project 90 rushing yards on 17 carries for McCoy.
The Saints pass defense (30th in the NFL) is almost as bad as their rush defense; the secondary has failed them countless times this season and is becoming known for giving up big plays. Last week, Peyton Manning destroyed the Saints with 305 yards, three touchdowns, and best of all, no interceptions. While Vick is no Manning, he does have some targets down the field that are big-time threats. Vick has passed for 1,823 yards (59 percent completion rate), nine touchdowns, eight interceptions while rushing for 247 yards and one score. DeSean Jackson, who leads the league in catch rate, is the Eagles' leading receiver with 34 catches and 524 yards. AccuScore simulations project 66 yards on 4 receptions for Jackson. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who doesn?t hold on to the ball nearly as well as Jackson, is projected to catch the ball 5 times for 62 yards.
How well Vick and McCoy perform will depend largely on the offensive line. Last week against the Falcons, Philadelphia?s offensive line allowed three more sacks and McCoy rushed for just 45 yards on 16 carries. It could be understandable if complex packages are causing trouble, but it has been basic defensive schemes Given that the Saints have not held an opponent to less than 27 points all season, this is the perfect game for the Eagles to turn things around offensively. AccuScore simulations project 254 yards and a QB rating of 98.2 for Vick.
It?s tough to pick a winner for this one. Philly?s offense (on paper) should have its way with the New Orleans defense. At the same time, we might be in for another multiple turnover game from Vick.
I?m going to stick to AccuScore?s forecast and take the Saints. Score prediction: 28-24.
