GM -
I've been sitting here trying to figure out why the way I'm capping seems to be working and your question just fell right in line with that, so I figured I'd post on it...
Let me explain to you how I do it, then I'll say what I think it all means. We'll use this weeks KC v. Oak game as an example...
I rate teams offenses vs. their opponent's defense in rushing and passing. For rushing, I use yards per game and passing I use QB Rating.
First rushing...
Rushing Offense:
KC 7
Oak 24
Rushing Defense:
KC 29
Oak 31
I compare them by looking at the difference in rank numbers.
KC's 7th ranked offense is going up against the 31st ranked defense. The difference here is +24.
Oakland's 24th ranked offense is going up against the 29th ranked defense. The difference here is +5.
KC has the edge rushing the ball: +24 to +5.
Now passing...
Passing Offense:
KC 9
Oak 21
Passing Defense:
KC 10
Oak 21
KC: 9 v 21 = +12
Oak: 21 v 10 = -11
KC has the advantage +12 to -11.
I do this for every game, as well as looking at a few other categories.
In this case, KC has the advantage both rushing the ball and passing the ball. In the past three weeks, teams that have the advantage rushing and receiving have gone 21-6-1 against the spread, or 77.8% winners with one push.
For the games that are split rushing and receiving, play on the dogs getting the points. In the last three weeks, the dogs are 11-3, or 78.6%.
Unbelievable. I don't expect those numbers to keep up, but I think they make sense. Here's why...
In a given week you are going to have 3-4 dogs win outright and a few others cover (at least so far this season). When I look at the match-ups, if a team is good enough to have the advantage both rushing and passing, they will generally be the favorite. That is why you see majority favorite picks in the 2* and 3* plays. Usually, one or two games a week will have an underdog that is actually better, by the rankings, than their opponent. Dallas, last week, is an example of this (that line opened up at Dallas +1). I will go a step further and say that a favorite who is better than their opponent both rushing and passing the ball will be more likely to cover in a game than a team that is better in only one of those categories. That makes sense...
Now, in a given week, as I stated before, we are going to have around 6-7 dogs cover (at least so far this season). I state that the majority of dogs to cover will be the dogs who are playing opponents who they match up evenly with - or - are playing against favorites who don't have the advantage both rushing and passing the ball.
So for the teams who have advantages on both ends, those teams are probably going to be favorites and are matched-up in a way that will allow that team to cover. All of the other games are more even, and we know (generally) that the majority of dogs are going to come from this group - because they are matched up in a way that will allow the dog to cover (giving points to one team in a more evenly matched game).
I don't put games that have split Rush/Pass advantages as 2-3 stars because I see them having more of an opportunity to go either way. So all of those games stay at 1*. Looking at the way the games have gone to this point using this, the dogs cover those games the majority of the time. So for those games, I favor the dog, with an inclination to the team who rushes the ball better (ironically, in the vast majority of these games, the dog has the advantage rushing).
Again the numbers don't lie (we hope). For the last three weeks, this is how it's broken down...
Advantage rushing and passing: 21-6-1, 77.8%
Playing dogs whenever rush/pass advantage is split: 11-3, 78.6%
Overall: 32-9-1, 78.1%
All of these games are posted, with the exception of a few - due to early leans released and lines coming out late (ie. minnesota a couple weeks ago). Some of the other totals you've seen me put in here are including plays on over/unders. The numbers above are sides only for every game for the last three weeks.
I know that was long and confusing, I hope I did ok trying to explain it. If you have any questions, fire them at me, I'll try to answer them. I also have spreadsheets from the last three weeks, complete with win/loss records, match-ups, etc. If you want to see one, just email me and I'd be more than happy to send it along.
Good luck this week and I'll see you all in the winner's circle...
GO CUBS!
