MICHIGAN STATE IS 17-3 SU and 17-2-1 ATS IN LAST HOME GAMES IN LAST 20
YEARS.
THAT RECORD INCLUDES A 13-0-1 ATS RECORD IN LAST 14, 9-0-1 ATS RECORD IN
REVENGE GAMES, AND 5-0 ATS RECORD VS PSU (3-0 SU LAST THREE VS PSU). LOTS OF
DOG WINS, BLOWOUT WINS, AND DOG-BLOWOUT WINS. LAST SEASON MICHIGAN ST.
REVENGED A LOSS TO WISCONSIN, WINNING BY 35, AS 8 PTS UNDERDOGS. COVERED THE
SPREAD BY 43.
Oklahoma +7 @ Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech-7
Here is that system again. Same system that gave us a win with Fresno over
Boise a few days ago. The same system that produced a win for Texas over
Oklahoma this year or a 70-10 win for Texas Tech over Nebraska last year.
This system is one of the best in my database and almost always, the line
for games that fit into this system look too good to be true. And it usually
is. Getting 7 pts with OU against Texas Tech looks too good to be true
indeed. However, I really expect TT to shot the lights out against Oklahoma
this weekend. Not only because of the system but also because Texas Tech has
a huge redzone edge over Oklahoma. They are one of the best Big12 teams in
the redzone in every category that I keep track and it included TD, points
scored out of possible pts, turnovers, and 3rd down efficiency in the
redzone, both offensively and defensively. And Oklahoma is just the
opposite. They are one of the worst redzone teams in the Big 12 this year. I
expect a solid double digit win for Texas Tech here.
Play on 6+ favs revenging at least three straight double digit losses vs the
opponent: 39-7 ATS winn by 21, covering by 15 (Play on T.Tech)
Same system is perfect last 3 years (9-0 su/ats)
System stil solid if the team was upset the previous week (Texas Tech was
upset last week at OKST) 3-0 SU/ATS
System stil solid if the opponent on 3+ winning streak (See Boise last week)
System rock solid if the opponent (OKL) allowed at least 28 pts in its
previous game: 24-0 SU (winning by 22 ppg) and 23-1 ATS (covering by 14 ppg)
in last 20 years.
LSU -17 @ Ole' Miss
Play: Ole' Miss +17
No doubt in my mind that LSU is a much better team than Miss. However, in
this particular matchup, and in this particular situation, I simply love
Mississippi. Redzone wise, LSU is better, but not nearly enough to be
favored by this many pts on the road. Actually, Miss. redzone defense is
just as good as LSU's. Miss.'overall defense is just 3-6 pts worst than
LSU's. Both teams played a bunch of low scoring games this season,
especially lately, and I expect another defensive battle here, in which
getting 17 pts could be huge. LSU is coming off of a huge OT win at Alabama
and they could have a nice little letdown here. They have beaten Mississippi
by three points or less three straight times. Last year, they beat them
27:24. LSU was on a 4 games win streak and Mississippi was on a 3 games
losing streak (including two blowout losses) going into that contest but it
didn't matter. LSU stil had troubles with Ole Miss. Two years back, the
Championship LSU team beat Miss. by 3 and that was the only non cover for
LSU from 18.oct to the Championship game vs Oklahoma in January of that
year. Three years ago, Mississippi was on a four game losing streak when
they met LSU and they lost by only 1, and that was their closest loss all of
that year. Four years ago Miss. upset LSU on the road, despite the fact that
LSU won two games before and 6 games after that game. Miss should keep it
close here.
Play against teams that just won at Alabama the week before: 18-5 ATS in
last 10 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 15-2 ATS if favored by 7+ (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 12-1 ATS if favored and vs revenge (Play on Miss)
Play against road favs not off bye after an overtime win: 27-9 ATS Last 17
years (Play on Mississippi)
Play on teams revenging three straight losses of 3-pts in weeks 10+: 16-3
ATS last 20 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 8-0 ATS if underdog (covering by 15 ppg) (Mississippi)
Will post more plays later
YEARS.
THAT RECORD INCLUDES A 13-0-1 ATS RECORD IN LAST 14, 9-0-1 ATS RECORD IN
REVENGE GAMES, AND 5-0 ATS RECORD VS PSU (3-0 SU LAST THREE VS PSU). LOTS OF
DOG WINS, BLOWOUT WINS, AND DOG-BLOWOUT WINS. LAST SEASON MICHIGAN ST.
REVENGED A LOSS TO WISCONSIN, WINNING BY 35, AS 8 PTS UNDERDOGS. COVERED THE
SPREAD BY 43.
Oklahoma +7 @ Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech-7
Here is that system again. Same system that gave us a win with Fresno over
Boise a few days ago. The same system that produced a win for Texas over
Oklahoma this year or a 70-10 win for Texas Tech over Nebraska last year.
This system is one of the best in my database and almost always, the line
for games that fit into this system look too good to be true. And it usually
is. Getting 7 pts with OU against Texas Tech looks too good to be true
indeed. However, I really expect TT to shot the lights out against Oklahoma
this weekend. Not only because of the system but also because Texas Tech has
a huge redzone edge over Oklahoma. They are one of the best Big12 teams in
the redzone in every category that I keep track and it included TD, points
scored out of possible pts, turnovers, and 3rd down efficiency in the
redzone, both offensively and defensively. And Oklahoma is just the
opposite. They are one of the worst redzone teams in the Big 12 this year. I
expect a solid double digit win for Texas Tech here.
Play on 6+ favs revenging at least three straight double digit losses vs the
opponent: 39-7 ATS winn by 21, covering by 15 (Play on T.Tech)
Same system is perfect last 3 years (9-0 su/ats)
System stil solid if the team was upset the previous week (Texas Tech was
upset last week at OKST) 3-0 SU/ATS
System stil solid if the opponent on 3+ winning streak (See Boise last week)
System rock solid if the opponent (OKL) allowed at least 28 pts in its
previous game: 24-0 SU (winning by 22 ppg) and 23-1 ATS (covering by 14 ppg)
in last 20 years.
LSU -17 @ Ole' Miss
Play: Ole' Miss +17
No doubt in my mind that LSU is a much better team than Miss. However, in
this particular matchup, and in this particular situation, I simply love
Mississippi. Redzone wise, LSU is better, but not nearly enough to be
favored by this many pts on the road. Actually, Miss. redzone defense is
just as good as LSU's. Miss.'overall defense is just 3-6 pts worst than
LSU's. Both teams played a bunch of low scoring games this season,
especially lately, and I expect another defensive battle here, in which
getting 17 pts could be huge. LSU is coming off of a huge OT win at Alabama
and they could have a nice little letdown here. They have beaten Mississippi
by three points or less three straight times. Last year, they beat them
27:24. LSU was on a 4 games win streak and Mississippi was on a 3 games
losing streak (including two blowout losses) going into that contest but it
didn't matter. LSU stil had troubles with Ole Miss. Two years back, the
Championship LSU team beat Miss. by 3 and that was the only non cover for
LSU from 18.oct to the Championship game vs Oklahoma in January of that
year. Three years ago, Mississippi was on a four game losing streak when
they met LSU and they lost by only 1, and that was their closest loss all of
that year. Four years ago Miss. upset LSU on the road, despite the fact that
LSU won two games before and 6 games after that game. Miss should keep it
close here.
Play against teams that just won at Alabama the week before: 18-5 ATS in
last 10 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 15-2 ATS if favored by 7+ (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 12-1 ATS if favored and vs revenge (Play on Miss)
Play against road favs not off bye after an overtime win: 27-9 ATS Last 17
years (Play on Mississippi)
Play on teams revenging three straight losses of 3-pts in weeks 10+: 16-3
ATS last 20 years. (Play on Mississippi)
Same system is 8-0 ATS if underdog (covering by 15 ppg) (Mississippi)
Will post more plays later
