Early week 16

[thagame24]

Coming off a 5-2 week with tonight pending, looking to keep it rolling. Here are some plays I'm jumping on early and some short comments:

Washington -3

The Skins come off their MURDER of the Cowboys by looking for some revenge vs the Giants. Yes, they got dominated in NY early in the year, but the Skins are a completely different team at home and Eli is looking more and more like the guy we saw last year. I see Washington stacking 8 up front to slow down Tiki and forcing Eli to beat him, which I don't think he can do on the road. Portis is rolling and should have a big game against the injury riddled Giants interior.

San Francisco +10 (bought .5) w/ under 42 parlay

The St. Louis Rams shouldn't be 9.5 point favorites vs the local high school team :mj07: . There is alot of point value in San Francisco here, and they've been playing strong D, so look for another scrappy game from them that comes down to a field goal. Bought the extra hook to be safe, but I'm thinking this is a adlock:

Chiefs pick'em

May wait on this one since I think it'll move, but I love the Chiefs here. Yes I know they've lost 2 in a row. Yes I know the Chargers just beat the Colts. But KC is a dominant home team, especially in December, and I expect a letdown from a very inconsistent San Diego team as KC wins out at home to sneak in. Again, I think I'll be waiting on this one; the public will be on San Diego after they beat Indy

Panthers -5

Sorry Bill, maybe next year for your Cowgirls. Bledsoe on the road is a disaster, and with the O-Line in shambles expect Bledsoe to get KILLED by Peppers and Rucker. Another big game for Steve Smith as the Panthers roll.

Let me know what you guys think!!

 

[thagame24]

most games are now posted, so here are the rest of the plays:

Seahags -6.5

This is a GIMME!!! Dungy has already conceded that he'll be treating the last 2 games as "basically preseason games". Now that sounds good for my wallet, as the Colts were the Dolts in the preseason, losing all 5 games by an average of 14.2 points!!! Holmgren, on the other hand, has already said they are playing to win because this team NEEDS the #1 seed to have a shot at the Super Bowl. Eat this one up guys, it's easy money.

Cardinals vs Eagles UNDER 39

Another gimme. You thought the redzone offense of the Cardinals was pitiful before?? Wait until you see Navarre under center in the red zone, if he even gets there. The Mike McMahon-led eagles won't fare much better on the road.

Bucs -3

Gruden will have his boys in gear and ready to go after a drubbing by the Pats, and the crowd will be a rockin' as this is a homecoming after 3 straight road games. The Falcons, on the other hand, are the most overrated team in football right now. They are 1-5 against teams over .500 this year, and that one win was against the pre-Brad Johnson Minnesota Vikings!!! Add in the fact that Vick is absolutely pitiful both on the road and against the Bucs, and I just don't see how the Bucs won't roll.

Man I love how this card is shaping up, can't wait until Saturday :clap:

 

[thagame24]

This is shaping up to be a week with my most plays ever, but I just can't get away from this card. Here are two more plays:

Baltimore -1

Of course yesterday's domination of the Packers was somewhat of a fluke, but regardless this team has played some great football at home. Now 5-2 at home, they will look to spoil the Cinderella season of the Minnesota Vikings. I love Brad Johnson and all, but this team has peaked. Until this past week, they were the only winning team to have allowed more points than points scored. Yes I know that they were getting killed early in the year and obviously played alot better the past 6 weeks, but which team is the real Minnesota Vikings?? I think reality, as it usually is, is somewhere in the middle. This team plays like a 7-9, 8-8 team at best, and its reliance on the dome style play will be their downfall this week. I'll gladly lay the point as Baltimore plays the spoiler and sends the Vikings to another long offseason.

Bears -5.5

Kicking myself for not jumping at the -3 that was posted last night and slightly worried that I'm undoubtedly on the overwhelming public side here, but these are two teams going in opposite directions. The only bright light for the Packers this season, Gado, is now out. Favre is a mess, and Rodgers will not fare much better if he gets a shot. The Packers have also been terrible at home this year, winning only 2 games, and one of those was a squeaker against the Lions. The bears, on the other hand, played some great ball last week. Grossman really sparked them, and he should have another solid game against a secondary that was lit up by Kyle Boller! I'll lay the 5.5, jump on this one soon or you'll be laying -8.5!!

 

[c20916]

Nice writeups and good luck with ALL your plays,

one comment, i don't beleive SD will have a let down, they need to win these last two games and get some help to make it into the playoffs so I think KC will ge their best effort. KC may very well cover, but it won't be b/c SD has a let down.

 

[moe777]

gl..picks look good,but normally after looking at your card id say no good .youve got lots of games and all but 1 are favs .but we all know the way this year has been going so gl.
that 49er line does look weird though.the 9ers have a better chance of staying within the # against teams like jax,ravens,dallas.but if their playing a good off and on the road they have no chance.the question though is are the rams a good or ok offence right now.i dont know.ive been on the rams the last 2 weeks and lost so its obvious i dont have a good feel for this team,on the other hand i am a 49ers fan and somehow nolan has them jacked up every weekend when they know their offence cannot put up more than 1 td in a game.gl and hope u cover a 49ers loss.bush factor.

 

[thagame24]

Adding:

Pats -5

This line is staying under the magic number because of perception that Belichick may rest starters. I don't believe this will happen; he even played his starters for 3 full quarters vs San Fran in week 17 with the #1 seed locked. Pats are clicking and should continue to roll.

KC/SD Under 49.5

This is courtesy of Weathershop from another site...

"A developing Winter time low pressure center over the Missouri valley will sweep a potent cold front through the Kansas City area on Saturday morning. The National Weather Service forecast predicts 25 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph along with a chance of rain into the afternoon. Winds should be blowing across the field. Both teams in playoff picture so may be some conservative play dictated by cold, winds and rain possible. Both teams possess stout rush defenses so not a lot of total yardage expected.

Get on it before line begins to drop.

U 49.5"

Confirmed it with weather.com . I'm jumping on this now, looks like a sure thing!!

 

[thagame24]

damnit, that second quarter fluke of the rams/niners cost me a really nice day :cursin: Ah well, 4-3-1 and i hit a small parlay of chiefs ml w/ under. hopefully will do better tomorrow. Merry Christmas everyone!

 

[thagame24]

woohoo, 2-0 Christmas brings the week to 6-3-1 plus the small parlay. Tomorrow should be easy, hopefully the Pats will close out a great week!!

 

[Scotter]

I am just hoping the pats can close out my 600/1080 6pt teaser parlay. They win. I win. ROOT FOR THE PATS!!

 

[Dayad]

I'm only rooting for you because I've got them too. I've got them at -4.5.

GL to us

 

[thagame24]

Pats are lookin good!! On to next week :clap: