Pitt -2.5
Cinci has had a great run this year, they showed that they can put up points and make a great highlight reel. But they're simply not ready. They had one of the weakest schedules in the league, and a terrible defense that was able to save face earlier in the season by forcing picks as teams fell behind early (a'la 90s Rams). The Steelers are arguably the leagues best road team, and Parker's late season resurgance should allow them to control the clock and quiet the crowd. While the Steelers aren't nearly as dominant on D as they were last year, they're by far the better defensive team in this matchup. Don't get me wrong, Cinci will put up some points but the steelers will dominate clock control and put up enough to cover. I look for a 27-21 type game as Pitt moves onto Indy.
Tampa Bay -2.5
Man, all this love for the Redskins has me :mj03: Yes, I know Washington has won 5 in a row. But it is one of the most fraudulant winning streaks I've seen in a good while. Three of these wins were against: the Rams, Cardinals, and Eagles. They played relatively well in the Rams game, but they literally tried to give both the cardinals and eagles games away. They did play well against the Giants and played a great game against the Cowboys, but the Cowboys didn't even show up that day. Those 2 games were also at home, where this team is a completely different animal. This team was 6-2 at RFK as opposed to 4-4 on the road. They are a mess in the secondary and it looked like Brunell's knee was hanging on by a thread on Sunday. I just don't see how anyone puts good money on this team on the road right now. Tampa is a 6-2 home team, and the return of Booger has really shored up their line. They do not dominate teams, but they will control the ball and Gruden will get them this W. Simms has shown flashes of ability at home, and this secondary was being carved up by Mike McMahon, of all QBs, on Sunday. He will manage the running game and set up some big-play play-actions to Galloway as he's done all season. Everyone has been down on Tampa since they got shellacked in NE, but reality is that NE is a top 3 NFL team right now, especially at home. Washington wouldn't have fared much better; they're simply not a better team. Tampa can't hang with the powers of the AFC, but they sure can hang with the Skins and will prove it come Saturday!!! 20-13 Bucs
Pats pick'em/Panthers +10
This is my favorite play of the week. Everyone seems to see value in Jax +7.5, but I see a line that's spot on and tough to play either way. Everyone seems to forget that Jacksonville is a Florida team that will be playing in 13 degree windchills come saturday night!!! The Patriots simply will not lose this game. They have home field, a better coach, a better QB, and boatloads more playoff experience. Jacksonville will have to play a perfect game to cover this number.....and if they do they'll still lose. The backdoor is also wide open in this number which is also why I love the Pats in a tease. I'll say Pats dominate the game, with Jacksonville sneaking in the backdoor at the end. 24-17 Patriots.
Panthers +10: This is a great position for the Panthers to come in and win this game outright. They're by far the best road team in the NFC, no one comes close. Yes I know the Giants are great at home, but with injuries piling up on defense and the declining play of Eli I just don't see them doing much in the postseason this year. Tiki has looked great, but this team can fundamentally tackle so unfortunately for his stat (and check) book, Tiki will not be getting gift 50 and 95 yard td runs this week. Don't get me wrong, the Giants will definitely be putting up a fight and this game will be close. But Delhomme and Foster should be able to expose the D enough to win, or at least keep it close. I see this game coming to a last posession field goal, possibly in OT. Regardless, Carolina keeps it close and takes the teaser to the bank!! 23-20 carolina
Good luck this week everyone!!! :mj14:
