earnings in the oil patch eca, pca,su

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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here are some earnings in the oil/gas patch this week. a quiet week......lol.
Toronto dropped more than 6% and the US and emerging markets did not fare much better.

ECA Encana made 1.80 EPS and Cash flow 3.33
production was 4% higher than a year ago.

the oil sands/refining have had a great quarter, and company is raising its cash flow from this division to 1.1 billion up from 650 million.

more than half of 2007 production is hedged at 8.63 and a floor of 6

should note low tax rate of 20% instead of 30% also helped the results.

Encana is a strong natural gas producer with refiners, (the COP deal ) along with cdn. oil sands.

Cash flow 2006 8.56 2007 10.90 e 2008 11
eps 2006 3.19 2007 5.30 2008 5.35

the stock trades for 60Us 64cdn.
believe close to fair value 70-72.50cdn.

if the stock pulls back would be one the list.5-10%. great company.


Suncor SU

by 2008 production should grow to 350,000 bbd, up 35%,

also more expansion in the cdn. oil sands is on the way so by 2012 production should grow to 500,000.

there may be more production increases beyond that time will tell.

currenly production is sitting at 203,000bbd oil sands

SU reported 1.39 after one time items the number is 1.04, cash flow 1.77 for the quarter.

eps 2006 5.03 2007 4.60 2008 6
cf 2006 9.37 2007 6.40 2008 10

Suncor trade on the price of oil, guess that is obvious. however even if it has good news trades on short term moves of oil that day.

I have no idea why the large US companies have not tried to buy into or takevover Suncor. I mean most of the large US companies have declining production and are going to be spending heavliy on new projects.

Suncor is not cheap but above 40 oil this is a cash cow......the cow will cost more if they wait and in a few years China and India and Europe will be calling.......

bought Suncor in a drip/sPP in early 1999 for (avg. price 42-45 cdn. ) since then each share is now 4shares and price is 94cdn.

the sector will probably contniue to sell off SU was down Friday and is at 94 cdn. high 100 cdn.

after the carnage SU is one to look at, though never the cheapest in the group. then again reserves of 15 billion barrels cannot be bought to cheap.

since ECA, and SU both have refiners like pca would put them in the int. group.

thanks
selkirk
 

Dr. Fade

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Sep 29, 2005
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Kansas City
Gamblers, Gentleman, and Investors todays date is 7/29/2007 Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) is currently trading @ $65.81. This is a freakin' layup. This stock will be @ $90 one year from now. Look @ the #'s and research. Market is ready to correct and will end the year 07' 10% lower than the current 15k inflated level imo. The money will flow back to the co.'s w/solid earnings and dividens like SUN. The oil demand is only going higher and supplies are not increasing. This is one of the best opportunities w/very low downside risk. I'll report back quarterly.
 

selkirk

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 16, 1999
2,147
13
0
Canada
have read positive reports on Sun, and most of the refiners look cheap.

currently own VLO, have owned it for awhile....sold 50% during the market sell off last week, stop loss. also have puts various months at 65 strike. believe the stock is cheap however earnings will not grow from 2007 to 2008. that is my main concern.

the earnings look that they will peak in 2007.

thanks
selkirk
 
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