earnings TD, CIBC CM, Encana ECA, ect.

[selkirk]

Plan to post some recent earnings of some stocks that I own or have been discussed on this board. hopefully these will be recent earnings but in some cases they may be 30 days old before I get them posted, these are all within the past week.

TD, CIBC CM, Encana trade in Cdn. US.
most figures in Cdn. $


CIBC CM
Made $1.54 a share which beat the estimates of $1.22
The number take in account +.14 (tax charge) and -.14 mutual fund investigations in the US.

the Bank has set aside $50 million for penalties that may take place next year from CIBC world markets.

CIBC has $861 million of unrealized gains on securities for investment purposes. These gains will be added to earnings over time.

CIBC earnings per share 2003 $4.06 2004 $5.40E 2005 $5.65
CIBC yields just under 3% the dividend will be increased in 2004 if earnings come close to projections.

TD Bank
made .94 EPS this quarter,
TD securities reported 44% increase in earnings (year over year) --many new issues/income trusts, income trusts.....
TD waterhouse 11% in earnings (year over year)
and most important the retail bank operation had 16% earnings improvement.

TD Waterhouse failed to merge with E-Trade, it is thought that TD wanted a large ownership (control ) of the combined company. Costs at TD Waterhouse are lower than in 2000, and can provide good leverage to an improving market.

If you buy TD the main reason is a large well run Retail banking operation in Canada. However TD securities and TD Waterhouse will add nicely to results if the market continues to climb.

Earnings per share 2003 $2.89 2004 $3.65 E 2005 $4


Encana ECA

unlike many large oil/gas companies that have cut reserve life ECA has increased reserves 12%, and will probably be able to grow production by +10% oil/gas each year for the next 3-4 years.

ECA in 2003 due to high oil/gas prices had costs of 1.9 billion which left $2.6 billion in free cash flow. If this trend continues in 2004 there will probably be share buybacks and increased dividends.

the quarterly dividend was increased from .10cdn to .10US per share.

ECA debt ratio is at 34% and falling.
in 2003 ECA bought back 23.8 million shares worth $1.18 billion
in 2004 company bought back so far $136 million

EPS 2003 $5.03 2004 $4 E 2005 $3.90 assuming oil $28-$30US
CFS 2003 13.10 2004 10.50 2005 $12


ECA is trading over $57 cdn, my target was $60 which has taken 6 months longer than I thought. own the stock

own TD, CIBC CM, have calls written on them. Have written puts $42.50 TD April, July and some October the stock is at $44.88cdn.

other energy investments own TLM, covered calls, also written puts TLM June $70, $75, had a run up this week...good thing and now is over $79 cdn. has traded in a range $74-$80 the past month.

also own Suncor and have written puts $32.50 June.


more earnings soon.

thanks
selkirk

 

[deportes]

Selkirk, great information like always. What do you think of CPN
Calpine energy stock. I have a few and the stock is just doing nothing. bought at 16 US. now hangs at 5.? for ever. thinking about selling and moving to better greener pastures.
Thanks

 

[selkirk]

Deportes actually commented on Calpine back on 8-20-2002, do not own the stock bought it a few times under $5 and made very small gains trading it, if you use the search feature you can find the whole post, here was my main reply.

would rate Calpine a hold, the company is turning itself around but it will take time, got itself into a huge mess.

should earn (EPS) 2004 -.05 2005 +.10
company should be profitable in 2005 or 2006 at the latest, however it is trading at $5.43 would rate it a hold. upside this year maybe $6.

good luck with whatever you decide maybe you can use it as a tax loss if you do sell it

here is post from 8-20-2002

thanks
selkirk


Marine Calpine is not a fuel cell company but is an energy producer. It was a darling stock in the late 1990s, as California had the energy crisis, and price for power went to all time highs.

Calpine busily built power plants to meed the demand. this drove up debt (which is still a concern), and then power prices fell. also were hurt by Enron.

everyone started looking at all of the power producers books much more carefully because of enron and they wanted to leave the sector.

Calpine once a $40 stock fell on hard times, for a variety of reasons; high debt, falling energy prices (compared to the high prices many people thought would last, Enron/accounting, some of their accounting was aggressive nothing as bad as Enron (that would be hard to accomplish).

Calpine is at $4, will probably not go bankrupt (famous last words), it will also not go to $20-$30 in the next 6-8 months that is BS.

if Calpine breaks through $4.25 I will probably buy some, small position, my stop loss will be $3.25.

they just completed the Hermiston Power Plant 630 MW natural gas, 150 MW sold to Bonneville power (5 year contract), PR today. rest will be sold to California.

this is a very high risk stock, your mother should know that, high risk, hopefully high reward. could lose 25-50% very quickly.

I personally think they will survive buying if it breaks above $4.25 currently at $4. make sure your mother has a stop loss if she buy the stock.



enclosed is the companies comments on August 1, 2002 when they announced 2nd Q earnings of .19 a share.

thanks
selkirk


"2002 is proving to be one of the most -- if not the most -- challenging years for the U.S. power industry and for Calpine. Yet we continued to achieve new milestones as we execute the program that we outlined at the beginning of the year: focus on strengthening liquidity, efficiently operate our plants, complete projects currently under construction and reduce overhead and operating costs," stated Calpine Chairman, CEO and President Peter Cartwright. "In the quarter just ended, we made significant progress toward strengthening liquidity, while adding to our portfolio of clean, fuel- efficient power generating facilities. With our low-cost fleet, we continued to operate profitably despite low power prices."

"Thanks to the hard work and dedication of our employees, we have, since the beginning of the year, brought on line ten new energy centers and completed three expansion projects, adding approximately 5,300 megawatts of clean, low-cost power generation."

"On the liquidity front, Calpine raised $2.5 billion through major financings during the first six months of 2002, reduced capital spending and sold assets. We also have launched several new initiatives to strengthen Calpine's cash resources and reduce our debt. We will only proceed with new projects that meet our stringent investment criteria, have long-term power sales contracts, and have access to attractive financing."


2002 Second Quarter Financial Results

Financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2002 reflect a significant decrease in electricity prices, gas prices and spark spreads as compared with the same periods in 2001, primarily reflecting an increase in supply and a softened demand resulting from depressed economic activity. Declines in market prices for electricity were mitigated by the company's volume of long-term contracts. The company did experience a significant drop in mark-to-market gains from trading activities, which reflects the company's decision to limit this activity due to costs associated with credit support for trading.

Total electrical generating production for the three and six months ended June 30, 2002, increased by 99% and 101%, respectively, as the company brought additional facilities into operation. The combination of lower spark spreads on electrical generation, lower revenues on sales of oil and gas, and lower trading gains resulted in decreases of 16% and 25%, respectively, in gross profit for the three and six months ended June 30, 2002 as compared with the same periods in 2001. Calpine's low-cost production, economies of scale and volume of long-term contracts mitigated the effect of the depressed power market.

For the three months ended June 30, 2002, fully diluted earnings per share from recurring operations was $0.19, compared with $0.39 for the second quarter of 2001. For the same periods, GAAP fully diluted earnings per share was $0.19 and $0.32 (after merger expense), respectively. For the six months ended June 30, 2002, fully diluted earnings per share from recurring operations was $0.30, compared with $0.75 for the six months ended June 30, 2001. For the same periods, GAAP fully diluted earnings (loss) per share was $(0.01) (after effects of pre-tax equipment cancellation costs of $168.5 million) and $0.68, respectively. Financial results for the second quarter of 2002 also reflect higher project development costs as the company expensed $18.1 million in costs related to the cancellation or indefinite suspension of certain development projects.


Industry-Leading Low-Cost Power Portfolio

Calpine remains committed to providing its customers with clean, reliable and low-cost electricity. The company's highly efficient natural gas-fired and geothermal power plants represent the cleanest, most modern fleet of electric generating facilities in North America.

Calpine has slowed or suspended capital spending on a significant number of development projects. It remains focused on completing plants currently in construction and on projects that have attractive power sales contracts in place with access to financing. In addition, the company continues to reduce costs -- including overhead, operating and capital -- as it transitions from a development company to an operating company.

Calpine currently has 70 operating power plants that generate up to 16,300 megawatts of electricity. In 2004, upon completion of its revised construction program, Calpine expects to produce up to 28,500 megawatts of electricity from 95 power plants located in 23 states, three Canadian provinces and the United Kingdom. Since last reported in May, recent highlights include:


-- Generated 15.7 million megawatt-hours and produced approximately

35 billion cubic feet of gas and gas equivalents at costs well below

market prices during the quarter.

-- Signed a three-year power sales agreement with the Tennessee Valley

Authority (TVA) to supply TVA with an option to purchase up to

500 megawatts per day of baseload capacity from Calpine's 794-megawatt

Decatur Energy Center beginning in June 2004;

-- Secured several mid- and long-term power sales contracts with major

wholesale customers, increasing Calpine's total contractual sales since

December 2001 to approximately 40 customers and nearly 3,300 megawatts;

and

-- Completed construction of six new natural gas-fired energy centers and

two peaking units, adding over 3,800 megawatts of capacity; new

facilities are now providing clean, reliable electricity for power

customers in New York, California, Alabama, Illinois, Texas and British

Columbia; since January 2002, Calpine has added approximately 5,300

megawatts of low-cost capacity.


Calpine Energy Services

Calpine Energy Services (CES) continues to execute on the company's business model of entering long-term contracts directly with load-serving entities. CES remains focused on securing low-cost fuel to supply Calpine's generating plants, selling electricity from its generating assets and optimizing the company's portfolio.

Calpine currently has 125 power sales contracts in place with 80 major wholesale and industrial customers. These contracts represent $6.6 billion of above market value when discounted at 9% and have a seven-year weighted average life. Additional detailed information regarding the company's long-term contracts can be found in part under the Supplemental Data and in full on the investor relations page of the company's website at www.calpine.com.

The company continues to evaluate joint venture alliances for its energy services group and will only move forward if such alliance will add value for Calpine.


Liquidity-Enhancing Initiatives

Calpine continues to take steps to strengthen its balance sheet and ensure sufficient liquidity for the company's revised business plans. Recent milestones since Calpine's last quarterly update include:


-- Funded and increased its two-year secured bank term loan to

$1.0 billion from $600 million and reduced the size of its secured

corporate revolving credit facilities to $1.0 billion from

$1.4 billion; and

-- Received BBB- investment grade rating on Calpine's term loan and

revolving credit facilities from Standard & Poor's; assigned

Ba3 ranking by Moody's Investors Service.

 

[deportes]

thanks for the reply Silkirk