- Dec 9, 2017
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Been really busy so I haven't posted in a while, but hope to interact a bit more with MJS in the future. If you wish to read the entire weekly report, please visit:
https://www.nolandalla.com/2021-nfl-predictions-and-picks-week-8/
As of Friday, I've made EIGHT picks for NFL Week 8. Here's my picks, so far which I hope will be of interest to MJS readers:
WEEK 8 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS
Carolina / Atlanta OVER 46 ? Risking $330 to win $300
Atlanta Team Total (First Half) OVER 12.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300
Two observations from last week?s Miami Dolphins 30-28 win vs. Miami. (1) The Falcons? offense is going to be very good, especially with such a talented receiver corps. Now healthy again, with QB Matt Ryan throwing 50+ passes per game, this offense will score points. TE Kyle Pitts is a game-changer. He caught 8 passes for 167 yards last week. I have no doubt the Falcons will be an OVER team the rest of the season. (2) The other big factor is the Falcons? defense, which is awful. Atlanta gave up 4 touchdown passes last week to QB Tua Tagovailoa (Tua!), and lost 13-points leads twice in the second half. Seriously, how does any team blow two 13-point leads in a half of football against the NFL?s 28th ranked offense? This pass defense can?t stop anybody, so look for Atlanta to surrender points (which averages 29 PPG allowed this season). Obviously, the concern here with scoring points is Carolina, which has gone into hibernation after a 3-0 start. The Panthers have dropped 4 straight, including a blowout humiliation last week at NY Giants. Carolina said in advance they?d run the hell out of the ball (we jumped on the UNDER, and won easily). That tip-off on game strategy and execution was disastrous, so look for Carolina in a desperate situation to take far more chances, especially versus a defense that?s known for getting burned by the pass. At 46, this total is right down the middle of a high-scoring OVER team (Atlanta 4-2 to the OVER) and a low-scoring UNDER team (Carolina 5-2 to the UNDER). However, those Carolina numbers are misleading as the Panthers? defense have faced some real offensive sinkers (Jets, Giants, Eagles, Texans), which helps to pad their defensive stats. Inside a dome, with Atlanta clicking on offense but vulnerable on defense, plus Carolina in desperation mode to end a 4-game slide, I think we?ll see an entertaining game with points scored. I got the OVER early in the week at 46. A correlated wager is taking Atlanta?s team total in the first half to go OVER 12.5. This number seems slightly low with the Falcons? strong offense, healthy again, playing back at home for the first time in a month. The key here is catching a win on 13, which is an important number in totals wagering.
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 19.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300 [BEST BET]
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) ? Risking $330 to win $300
I don?t know if the Steelers have turned things around with 2-straight wins to get back to 3-3, but at least the offense looks better and is capable of scoring points. They?ve posted 27 and 23 the last two weeks, so I don?t see much of a problem getting to 20 versus a defense that?s been burned like scorched toast when it plays winning teams. I don?t care that the Browns stifled the awful Texans, Bears, or Broncos. The Browns defense isn?t very good. I expect a close game so have no opinion on a side, but it appears oddsmakers have set this team total on Pittsburgh just a little low. Catching a win on ?20? is huge, so I?ll gladly lay -130 and look for the Steelers to do enough to reach the OVER. I hope QB Baker Mayfield starts (it?s uncertain as this analysis is being posted), since that could create a possible shootout. But even Case Keenum under center for the Browns probably helps the Steelers to go OVER (I don?t think he?ll replicate the decent performance be put up last Thursday night). With 10 days to prepare for this division rival, I think the Steelers get enough points to cash this ticket. The same logic applies to a bet on the Steelers exceeding 9.5 points (team total) in the first half, so that?s also worth a wager. UPDATE: Mayfield will start for the Browns, which is good. That probably forces the Steelers into a more aggressive offensive game plan.
(First Half) Detroit +3 vs. Philadelphia (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
This isn?t so much a bet on the Lions as a wager against Philadelphia. The Eagles have no business laying a FG in the first half given how they?re playing right now. This is the second straight road game for the Eagles, coming off an awful performance in Las Vegas last week. Philadelphia?s offense is, at best ? inconsistent. This isn?t a team that should be laying points to anyone. Meanwhile, winless Detroit is coming off an inspiring effort in Los Angeles last week, nearly upsetting the Rams. While the Lions? W-L record is horrible (0-7), let?s keep in mind that Detroit is 4-3 against the spread, and 2-1 against the spread at home. So, getting +3 at home given the current state of these two teams strikes me as value.
(First Half) Jacksonville +3 vs. Seattle (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
Jacksonville Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) (-120) ? Risking $240 to win $200
After what we?ve seen the last few weeks with Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks, this looks be a solid fade, especially with Seattle in a favorite role. I won?t spend time beating up Smith, who really looks lost at times when dropping back to pass. Worse, he?s immobile and has difficulty evading a pass rush. Coming off a crushing defeat at home to the Saints, I?m not sure what the mindset of the Seahawks will be, especially on defense. This is a really bad defensive team that played its heart out last week. Sometimes, there?s a letdown after such a close-but-no-cigar result, and that could happen here. Jacksonville doesn?t inspire great confidence, but the Jags have covered in 2 of their last 3 games. They also come off a win in London two weeks ago (beating Miami), so there?s been plenty of time to prepare. Jacksonville has also posted 19, 20, 19, and 23 points in each of the last four games and now faces one of the weaker defenses, so wagering them OVER 9.5 in the first half strikes me as a solid value. Two modest-sized wagers on Jacksonville are prompted by the expectation the Jags will be competitive in the first half, while the Seahawks continue to be sluggish on offense.
SNF: Minnesota / Dallas UNDER 52.5 ? Risking $330 to win $3o0
This was a late play made on Friday after news that QB Dak Prescott looks unlikely to start. And why would he play a single down, let alone start, if there?s any kind of injury or risk? Dallas which is breezing right now in a horrible division, all but has the NFC East locked up and just needs to stay healthy. Pushing Prescott into a road start versus a dangerous defense when he?s not 100 percent strikes me as a very dumb move (Mike McCarthy, please do the smart thing). So, there?s a huge dropoff from Prescott, who was having a possible MVP season and the weaker greenhorn backup, Cooper Rush, who has 1 completion in 3 passing attempts for 4 yards IN HIS ENTIRE NFL CAREER. That QB inexperience would likely mean feeding the ball to RB E. Elliot 25-30 times and hoping for the best. Given Elliots? decline in the last few seasons (averaging 4.7, 4.5, 4.0 YPC each of last three seasons), that?s perfectly fine with me as I?m betting the UNDER. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has improved significantly. I still don?t trust this unit when playing top teams, but against the Vikings mediocre offense (ranks 17th in PPG), the Dallas defense should be fine. The total looks way too high based on the Prescott news. If he was starting, this is an entirely different ballgame. With a greater than 50/50 chance he doesn?t play, or could be at less than full strength, this looks like a very compelling UNDER bet.
THIS WEEK?S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):
Carolina / Atlanta OVER 46 ? Risking $330 to win $300
Atlanta Team Total (First Half) OVER 12.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 19.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300 [BEST BET]
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) ? Risking $330 to win $300
(First Half) Detroit +3 vs. Philadelphia (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
(First Half) Jacksonville +3 vs. Seattle (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
Jacksonville Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) (-120) ? Risking $240 to win $200
SNF: Minnesota / Dallas UNDER 52.5 ? Risking $330 to win $300
https://www.nolandalla.com/2021-nfl-predictions-and-picks-week-8/
As of Friday, I've made EIGHT picks for NFL Week 8. Here's my picks, so far which I hope will be of interest to MJS readers:
WEEK 8 PREDICTIONS AND PICKS
Carolina / Atlanta OVER 46 ? Risking $330 to win $300
Atlanta Team Total (First Half) OVER 12.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300
Two observations from last week?s Miami Dolphins 30-28 win vs. Miami. (1) The Falcons? offense is going to be very good, especially with such a talented receiver corps. Now healthy again, with QB Matt Ryan throwing 50+ passes per game, this offense will score points. TE Kyle Pitts is a game-changer. He caught 8 passes for 167 yards last week. I have no doubt the Falcons will be an OVER team the rest of the season. (2) The other big factor is the Falcons? defense, which is awful. Atlanta gave up 4 touchdown passes last week to QB Tua Tagovailoa (Tua!), and lost 13-points leads twice in the second half. Seriously, how does any team blow two 13-point leads in a half of football against the NFL?s 28th ranked offense? This pass defense can?t stop anybody, so look for Atlanta to surrender points (which averages 29 PPG allowed this season). Obviously, the concern here with scoring points is Carolina, which has gone into hibernation after a 3-0 start. The Panthers have dropped 4 straight, including a blowout humiliation last week at NY Giants. Carolina said in advance they?d run the hell out of the ball (we jumped on the UNDER, and won easily). That tip-off on game strategy and execution was disastrous, so look for Carolina in a desperate situation to take far more chances, especially versus a defense that?s known for getting burned by the pass. At 46, this total is right down the middle of a high-scoring OVER team (Atlanta 4-2 to the OVER) and a low-scoring UNDER team (Carolina 5-2 to the UNDER). However, those Carolina numbers are misleading as the Panthers? defense have faced some real offensive sinkers (Jets, Giants, Eagles, Texans), which helps to pad their defensive stats. Inside a dome, with Atlanta clicking on offense but vulnerable on defense, plus Carolina in desperation mode to end a 4-game slide, I think we?ll see an entertaining game with points scored. I got the OVER early in the week at 46. A correlated wager is taking Atlanta?s team total in the first half to go OVER 12.5. This number seems slightly low with the Falcons? strong offense, healthy again, playing back at home for the first time in a month. The key here is catching a win on 13, which is an important number in totals wagering.
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 19.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300 [BEST BET]
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) ? Risking $330 to win $300
I don?t know if the Steelers have turned things around with 2-straight wins to get back to 3-3, but at least the offense looks better and is capable of scoring points. They?ve posted 27 and 23 the last two weeks, so I don?t see much of a problem getting to 20 versus a defense that?s been burned like scorched toast when it plays winning teams. I don?t care that the Browns stifled the awful Texans, Bears, or Broncos. The Browns defense isn?t very good. I expect a close game so have no opinion on a side, but it appears oddsmakers have set this team total on Pittsburgh just a little low. Catching a win on ?20? is huge, so I?ll gladly lay -130 and look for the Steelers to do enough to reach the OVER. I hope QB Baker Mayfield starts (it?s uncertain as this analysis is being posted), since that could create a possible shootout. But even Case Keenum under center for the Browns probably helps the Steelers to go OVER (I don?t think he?ll replicate the decent performance be put up last Thursday night). With 10 days to prepare for this division rival, I think the Steelers get enough points to cash this ticket. The same logic applies to a bet on the Steelers exceeding 9.5 points (team total) in the first half, so that?s also worth a wager. UPDATE: Mayfield will start for the Browns, which is good. That probably forces the Steelers into a more aggressive offensive game plan.
(First Half) Detroit +3 vs. Philadelphia (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
This isn?t so much a bet on the Lions as a wager against Philadelphia. The Eagles have no business laying a FG in the first half given how they?re playing right now. This is the second straight road game for the Eagles, coming off an awful performance in Las Vegas last week. Philadelphia?s offense is, at best ? inconsistent. This isn?t a team that should be laying points to anyone. Meanwhile, winless Detroit is coming off an inspiring effort in Los Angeles last week, nearly upsetting the Rams. While the Lions? W-L record is horrible (0-7), let?s keep in mind that Detroit is 4-3 against the spread, and 2-1 against the spread at home. So, getting +3 at home given the current state of these two teams strikes me as value.
(First Half) Jacksonville +3 vs. Seattle (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
Jacksonville Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) (-120) ? Risking $240 to win $200
After what we?ve seen the last few weeks with Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks, this looks be a solid fade, especially with Seattle in a favorite role. I won?t spend time beating up Smith, who really looks lost at times when dropping back to pass. Worse, he?s immobile and has difficulty evading a pass rush. Coming off a crushing defeat at home to the Saints, I?m not sure what the mindset of the Seahawks will be, especially on defense. This is a really bad defensive team that played its heart out last week. Sometimes, there?s a letdown after such a close-but-no-cigar result, and that could happen here. Jacksonville doesn?t inspire great confidence, but the Jags have covered in 2 of their last 3 games. They also come off a win in London two weeks ago (beating Miami), so there?s been plenty of time to prepare. Jacksonville has also posted 19, 20, 19, and 23 points in each of the last four games and now faces one of the weaker defenses, so wagering them OVER 9.5 in the first half strikes me as a solid value. Two modest-sized wagers on Jacksonville are prompted by the expectation the Jags will be competitive in the first half, while the Seahawks continue to be sluggish on offense.
SNF: Minnesota / Dallas UNDER 52.5 ? Risking $330 to win $3o0
This was a late play made on Friday after news that QB Dak Prescott looks unlikely to start. And why would he play a single down, let alone start, if there?s any kind of injury or risk? Dallas which is breezing right now in a horrible division, all but has the NFC East locked up and just needs to stay healthy. Pushing Prescott into a road start versus a dangerous defense when he?s not 100 percent strikes me as a very dumb move (Mike McCarthy, please do the smart thing). So, there?s a huge dropoff from Prescott, who was having a possible MVP season and the weaker greenhorn backup, Cooper Rush, who has 1 completion in 3 passing attempts for 4 yards IN HIS ENTIRE NFL CAREER. That QB inexperience would likely mean feeding the ball to RB E. Elliot 25-30 times and hoping for the best. Given Elliots? decline in the last few seasons (averaging 4.7, 4.5, 4.0 YPC each of last three seasons), that?s perfectly fine with me as I?m betting the UNDER. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense has improved significantly. I still don?t trust this unit when playing top teams, but against the Vikings mediocre offense (ranks 17th in PPG), the Dallas defense should be fine. The total looks way too high based on the Prescott news. If he was starting, this is an entirely different ballgame. With a greater than 50/50 chance he doesn?t play, or could be at less than full strength, this looks like a very compelling UNDER bet.
THIS WEEK?S BETS (Lay amount/Win amount):
Carolina / Atlanta OVER 46 ? Risking $330 to win $300
Atlanta Team Total (First Half) OVER 12.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 19.5 (-130) ? Risking $390 to win $300 [BEST BET]
Pittsburgh Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) ? Risking $330 to win $300
(First Half) Detroit +3 vs. Philadelphia (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
(First Half) Jacksonville +3 vs. Seattle (-115) ? Risking $230 to win $200
Jacksonville Team Total OVER 9.5 (First Half) (-120) ? Risking $240 to win $200
SNF: Minnesota / Dallas UNDER 52.5 ? Risking $330 to win $300
