Enbridge very good results,

[selkirk]

sometime will list the stocks I have in my DRIP/SPP (dividend reinvestment plan and share purchase plans.)

most of them have fallen though still like them except for two that....well later

Enbridge is a company I have owned for more than 10 years, probably 15. it is a pipeline company based in Canada, but has North American operations.

yesterday they announced earnings:

1. dividend will be increased by 12% to .37 quarterly from .33

2. there earings will come in around 2.18 to 2.32

3. they believe they will be able to maintain earnings growth of between 10% to 2012, they have some good projects and growth ahead....also they have done this is the past.

4. in november they borrowed money 500 million at 5.57% and 6.62%, not many companies can even come close to getting money at those rates.

If I had to buy one stock for an investor starting out enb, would make the list of top 5-10 and be near the top.

it is boring, boring, who is go to brag about picking this stock, however thoughout the years, it averages 10% counting div. some years better.

they do not seem to screw up (techinical term) often, like TRP however they did cut their div and stock went from 20-8 (that was ten years ago and never owned trp then, only bought back in at 18.)

anyways ENB 37.75cdn. low 33.10 high 46.27, 29.79 US low 26.29 high 46.76.

guess the cdn. dollar dropping by 25% to the US has had an effect, anyways good pipeline.

no rush to buy in this market, if the markets struggle, people will sell this boring pipeline to make margin calls and offset losses.
and in a rally who cares about a boring pipeline company.

so only about 10% upside from here (capital), still will continue to own, and if I get a 10% sale, would add to the position.
getting 4% yield from a well run pipeline that will avearage me 10% over the years, is not bad.

Energy
until oil and natural gas can rally not adding to the position. only own some sr. and have covered calls and an uncovered calls against these positions.

have 40% of my normal weighting in energy the rest is in cash.

NXY was taliked about being taken out at 38. though have not added to my position, stock went from 20 to 27, back, then back again.

Total probably does want it however though they could, still hard for anyone to raise money in this environment. also oil /gas have not rallied. so scary to take on more debt and pay high rates.

NXY deal was thought to be off, now, it will happen but not until the credit situation clears. and oil and gas stabilize....so a few months.....or more...lol.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Kirk Was doing some stock screening and this Canadian stock has everything I was looking for--

--any input on TCK ???

 

[selkirk]

DTB I have talked about this stock a couple of times, in the past this one churned out cash and had a great run from 1998 to mid 2008.

first will update the new lows thread, this is the one stock was completely wrong 3 stocks that went up or flat and one loser TCK or TCK.b

1. AGU hit a low of 36 and talked about it being good value, actually hit below 30cdn. now at 40. a good stock though will buy on a pull back have a position. announced div. agri. stocks have high beta.

2. Fortis this is similar to Enbridge and was at 22.80 now at 24.71 plus pays a div/yield of 4.19%. hit over 26. good stock to pick up in the low 20s. long term holding for me, unless someone wants to buy it off of me for 28 in six months. FTS is cdn. utility, trades on Toronto.

3. RCI.b yields 3.10% Rogers hit a low of 34.96 though rebounded to 38. a good stock, now at 32.58, a buy in here, though picking up a position slowly, may go to 28-30 cdn. founder of the company died but great management still in place., whole sector will slow, wirless phones.
so it was a good short term trade, would sell 38-40 and look to buy 28-32 range.


TCK. b never worked out and sold out shortly after the post, where the above three had a bounce and two are still above those prices, had this one completely wrong, and sold out later, posted in the shareclub oct. thread. a short time later.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

TCK or TCK.b in Canada, Teck

Teck was a base metal company at from 98-2008 went on a great run, slowly started buying and bought large amounts in 2003. the stock made me large amounts of money it seemed every year.

also the put options paid high premiums and ussually expired worthless, would also write the occasional call (far out of the money) and they worked out as well.

only pointing this out as though I took plenty off of the table and the stock did not owe me anything sometimes you can get blinded by past success of a stock intstead of looking at it criticallly. my excuse as the other three stocks in that thread worked out...and the TCK TCK.b description was almost 100% wrong.

since I got stopped out (see shareclub thread) as to why sold, also 20% stop. the stock crated

now finally some usefull info.

DTB the div is gone, TCK will have to cut it to zero.

2. the prices of copper and zinc will hurt them, no one makes money at these prices, and copper has to go up over 2.

3. their oil sands project with Petro Canada PCA and UTS ( a junior, their only project) is all but dead in the short term. they did a study on costs and believe it will be around $90. no one want to spend billions probably 4-7 billion on phaes one, to get 90 oil, when oil is 45. even if costs come down to say 75-80. not much interest.....also very hard to get any kind of capital, so this is on the back burner....pca will look to expand in Libya, and TCK need to conserve cash. and UTS just sits there hoping oil goes back up and the project and some stage make sense.

4. TCK bought out Fording coal this summer, though an expensive purchase, most included I liked the deal orginally. Fording coal spun off from CP and rose greatly mines met coal for steel.

met coal was going for 300-350, and the lows were 275. in the summer. at 250 the deal made sense. even 200 the deal would fund it self, however met coal is below 200 and in some cases the price 100-150. below 150 is death. for TCK in the long term.

TCK CEO who missed out on inco wanted to make acquistions, and past management was far more cautious.

the problem is when the deal announced it popped $6, to over $42cdn. now it sits at 5.70cdn. 4.66US. they could have and should have issued stock and made it most a stock deal,

or issued 200-400 million shares though somewhat dillutive the market would have still liked the deal..

also issue longer term debt, instead the deal was mostly cash not paper, and they issued little in equity, and long term debt.

before the deal they were spinning cash and had over 2 billion (believe close to 2.5 billion on hand) and paid a good div.

now they have to refinance just over 5 billion in short term debt related to the deal by April....giving these market conditions that will not be easy.

they are going to sell no core assets, something they planned on anyways.... gold properties...though that is not easy to sell in this environment.

one deal the gold company that made the purchase went up and tck was flat, the market tells you quickly on most deals.


DTB this is a stock only for high risk, gamble. here comes the IFS

IF
the economy recovers in early 08 and zinc and copper rebound sightly.

IF credit market improve, currenlty tck. would have to pay +10% +++ probably more if they could do a deal, if they can do it for below 8.

IF IF IF
met coal can rebound to 200 this stock will be a 50-150% return and probably higher longer term.

if met coal goes to 100 and the economy and copper and zinc stays weak, this stock probably goes to zero.

for now I would watch, though it might rally 10-20%, the company will annonce the div cut....ect, would look at it in jan, feb.


thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thank You Sir

Yep I knew you had owned it and had written several times on it--thats why I wanted your input before pulling the trigger.

It is amazing what key statistics don't tell you. Thought something had to be wrong as #'s looked way too good per price of stock--yahoo had book value bout 4 times price and earnings/per share a little over 1/2 price per share.

Thanks again.