energy stocks and ag stocks roasted

[selkirk]

this has happened before a large hedge fund that was making large bets on commodities, in this case oil/gas stocks (leveraged, leveraged...extreme) blows up.

so they blow out positons and other funds also sell, and then soon it is the case of who wants to own these lousy stocks that go down 5% a day, well today around 3%.

here are a few will do an update in a week or two and see where they are, should be either flat or up 10%. though....would buy in slow.

CNQ 81.98 77.23 US
CNQ has dropped over 10 dollars this week, large nat. gas play but have cdn. oil sand play coming into production.

ECA 73.74 69.34US
natural gas play and also breaking the other half of their oil sands play....the street liked it at 93...which was probably fully priced however at 73, 69 not much love.

TLM 17.38 cdn. 16.36us
TLM is a stock often hated, they were in the Sudan, and some in the US congress wanted to pass some grave laws against them, though they operated legally....hated anyways sold Sudan assets to an idia oil company, and now trying to focus assets...stock has not moved in two years....good for covered calls.

SU
53.54 50.61US
have no idea why exxon which might be in the oil business, have to check on that or about a dozen other large int. energy companies that cannot grow reserves have not bought out SU.
will trade with oil, was at 60 now down here...most expensive of the ones listed then again they will have reserves for generations....

could throw devon and husky energy...many more.
would avoid jrs. at this stage...

well oil on toronto at 13.62 is just cheap. I mean next year cash flow below 4...north sea...

risks are discoveries, and price of oil....

sold no longer own calm 35.07 got shredded... stopped out at 40

afam 40.48 also out of the stock though a good run at 46.45 got out at prices 40-42.... will wait to see if get back in...

calm is cheap however the market killed the ag stocks and that get torched with the group...so will wait for strenght.

still own HD and close to making a profit on the stock... it went up today 4.49% on comments from the ceo :shrug: wow...quite a move....just hope does not go over 32 have covered calls.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Had been getting through this bear with pretty much intact with managable losses--but have taken hit on resource (mostly metals) and shipping stocks past week. OUCH!

 

[selkirk]

DTB the Toronto Index which has a high amount of resources stocks was off over 12% (not counting yesterday small rebound) for September.

every day most energy names and ag, metals, resources would fall 3-5%...would look at the stocks and a " great " performer would (only ) be down 1-2%

sold 50% of my energy portfolio, by Aug, now will have covered calls on all of my positons and even uncovered calls at higher prices.

these stocks seem cheap however will see if oil holds and at what levels. was looking at TCK.b as it has twiced bottomed near these levels and rebounded over 10-15% shortly after...though for now waiting.

also looking at financials however will wait for the LEH to play out mostly then my next concern is if the market will look for the next one....MER....ect.

will slowly build up cash but mainly hold stocks that have good earnings and pay a dividend...own very little that does not pay a dividend and a safe one at that.....

do not own or would not buy any jr. mining, energy companies, some have great value and trade a low cash flow valutuations, they will be great buys, but not yet, do not need to buy at the bottom anyways (hard to do.)....

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

well time for an update and no there is no profit after two weeks, just have to wait a little longer.

these stock have held up, though thanks to a rally today.

TLM 16.79 CNQ 80.38 eca 72.23 su 48.57

coal has gotten beaten down with a stick fdg.un was even trading below the takout by tck

bought a small amount for a trade....only 25% in case it went lower, now wish bought much more....coal stocks have been getting sliced and diced. anyways will wait they may fall back again.... looking interesting. especially ones, that profitbale, long term reserves and pay high divs.... imagine that....

tck or tck.b is now the third time it fell below 34 and is rallying in the past it rallied to hit 40 cdn. and above. and most times have only bought a small amount since was in fear that it would breat 34 and plummet.... still at 3 times this year.

tck is a play on base metals and coal.

thanks
selkirk