English Open

[bettingmad]

Peter O'Malley 40/1 Stan James.. Since cut to 28 but 33 at Heathorns & Tote)
A difficult event with doubts about lots of players. Justin Rose won for me in-running last week but seems to follow every good performance with a bad one. Darren Clarke has excellent course form but quotes of 11/2 look too short after a poor 74th place last week. Greg Owen is the most consistent player at the moment with 5 top 10's in his last seven outings, the only disappointment being the missed cut when I backed him! But can he actually win one? By default I have landed on a player who is very difficult to win with (Timeform squiggle?)... but at least we know he can win this... Peter O'Malley took this title last year after finishing 10th the year before. This season he has managed a 2nd in the Heineken and came back to form with a 9th last time out in the Volvo PGA. The thing that swings it for him is that he had last week off (hopefully to concentrate on this) but lots of other players are playing their 6th week in a row. Not many players successfully defend a title but Clarke managed this one in 1999 & 2000... hopefully O'Malley can complete a back-to-back double !

 

[Ian]

Well Sporting Odds had their prices up for all of 10 minutes but I managed to nick a bit of the 100/1 Carter - should be half those odds

 

[Ian]

Its silly time - Hennie Otto has seemingly fully recovered from his back surgery - in his last 4 events he finished 1st in South Africa then mc in Germany and in the last 2 weeks has finished 3rd and 4th on the Challenge Tour - big leap of faith but he is a promising young player - I'll bite on a little 200/1 Victor Chandler

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Phillip Price to win 25/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Siding with the two players who lost out of last week's battle for the British Masters. Price did little wrong last Sunday, apart from a poorly played 13th hole, he was just beaten by some outstanding golf. Hopefully, he can take the positive from the way he played last week and if he can again hit over 80% of greens in regulation, he will feature in this event. Forest of Arden is similar to the Marquess course at Woburn and requires good shot-making skills. The Welshman finished 6th in the 1997 British Masters on this course and could easily improve on that performance.

Ian Poulter to win 33/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Surprised to find Poulter as high as 33/1 after his performance last week. He had eight birdies in the final round and but for a three-putt on the 16th hole or the missed 7-foot putt on the last green, he would have tied Rose. If only he would have curbed some of that ultra-attacking golf! Finished in the top-10 last year and like Price, should start the week hungry for atonement.

Steve Webster to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Sportingbet, UKBetting or Paddy Power
Had been looking for Owen as a selection this week, but couldn't get 22/1 so siding with the local player from Atherstone. Webster did little wrong last week and finished just 5 shots behind 6th place. That would have been in line with other good performances in the past month - top-10 in the Algarve Portuguese Open and the Benson & Hedges International and top-25 in the Deutsche Bank - SAP Open. His early form on the course can be ignored - his breakthrough on the European Tour came in the 1999 British Masters - which leaves some impressive finishes in the last two years. He had been in the top-10 all week until a poor final round saw him fall to 23rd in 2000 and he finished 5th last year. In a field lacking of players who win regularly on the European Tour, bar Clarke, these three look the best of the nearly men!

 

[bettingmad]

2nd Selection: Ian Poulter 33/1 Totalbet
Tempted by the generous Totalbet quote as generally shorter - as low as 16/1 Sporting Odds & Tote. Won the Italian in 2000 & Moroccan 2001. Only one top 10 this season (Spanish) prior to last weeks excellent 2nd in the British Masters. Talented but inconsistent, though did string two good performances together in 2000 when 3rd in Sao Paolo & improving a place the week after with 2nd in the Moroccan... hope he goes one better again! Could be spurred on by his best mate (or ex-best mate!!) winning last week. 9th here last year.

Just read Stan's post after sending mine... I agree with Stan on Poulter and Ian on Faxon.... I can sense a juicy double coming!

 

[milpalm]

Greg Owen 20/1. 4 top tens in his last 6 events. He was 11th last year and should do well again.

Niclas Fasth 20/1. He's been inconsistent this year but played well in the PGA where he finished 11th. No course form to speak of but he's one of the few quality players in this field.

Peter O'Malley 33/1. The defending champion. He was 11th in the PGA and should do well this week on a course he obviously likes.

 

[bettingmad]

milpalm,
Fasth is still 25/1 at Coral and Heathorns.

 

[milpalm]

Thanks B'mad. I don't have an account with Heathorns and there's not much left on my Eurobet account. I have to settle for the 22/1 offered by Victorchandler.

 

[steved]

0.5 ew on following
Owen 20/1 Hills
Poulter 33/1 Eurobet
Webster 40/1 bet365
Not much new here, but trying to change way I select players..I am too biased by previous course form as opposed to recent form..trying to address that here, but end up picking same as Stanley (which is not necessarily bad!) The one's I have left out, were Lynn and Garrido, but they are just not doing anything, so if they play well, it will be from out of the blue (like Poulter last week!!)...

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS

Lee Westwood(25/1 for 0.20* e.w. @ Bet 365)
I am not alone in thinking the rehabilitation will continue on pace.

Justin Rose(12/1 for 0.30* e.w. @ Bet 365)
If this was roulette, taking the chip off the table after a straight up winner would be unthinkable for me. While I see the similarities with roulette, I hope Justin finds the similarities with Woburn. But the odds seem atrocious even if he delivers against an unexceptional field.

Steve Webster(40/1 for 0.30* e.w. @ Bet365)
I have not tracked a more profitable angle for these five months than sleeping in one's own bed, or some other close tie that has the flavor of home cooking.

GL

 

[bettingmad]

What a shocker from O'Malley missing the cut after -3 on day one... shame on him.

With only 1 round to go Poulter looks too far back.

Mirroring last week and getting out with Justin Rose again. The 13/2 at bet365 looks decent when as low as 9/2 with Chandler & Surrey. Hoping Darren Clarke keeps smiling while chucking away a tournament like he has often done when I have backed him in the past.
Webster & Jacquelin are both players who I have followed and would be annoyed to miss their maiden win... but you can't back'em all.

 

[Stanley]

Final update:1-2; +0.94 units

Price 3rd
Poulter 16th
Webster 10th

Small profit on the event as Price proved once again the importance of course management. How Poulter and Webster would have gained from such an approach! Poulter was attacking as ever and was always on the fringes on contention, but Webster should really have finished very highly. Joint leader early on in the final round, he found water three times in six holes around the turn and dropped seven shots over those holes. He would finish only three shots outside the top-5.


European Tour ytd
Matchups: 21-17; +3.45 units
Outrights: 4-26; +16.49 units

 

[bettingmad]

Very poor event 2 outrights and an in-running failure.... and to compound it I laid Clarke earlier on at betfair despite his excellent event form... as he has let me down so many times in the past...but this time nobody was able to apply any pressure to his usual jittery nerves.

Think it's time I took a break.... a trip to the US Open and then on to Japan for some footy sounds ideal

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