Eni, SLF, NXY, and review of energy holdings

[selkirk]

DTB about Eni has shown up on a few value screens, only been trying these for a few years, though have seen them listed in a couple of artticles.

The stock has a good yield, much higher than most oil/gas companies. a 2%+ yield can help support a stock. the info Dooley posted is about what I have, along with a few different estimates.

also their exposure to natural gas will probably help. still worried about natural gas however it has shown strength. believe natural gas will have to trade at least at $8 to keep up to demand. drilling is dropping off sharply in North America....sometimes this can take a while before it shows up in the price.....

my energy portfolio is a little defensive at this momnet. worried that opec is just talk. and the price has not been strong in the short term. so just going with the trend.

stocks I own and options out in cdn $.
ECA also have written 56Jan, 58Jan, 58 March.
ECA below $54, so this friday 56, 58 jan will expire and then the 58 march will be covered. so short term short, until Friday.

PCA have 48 covered call March, own the stock and sold the 48 March for $1.50. cheap stock just not going anywhere. currently over $44.

TLM have covered calls 19 Jan. when they expire will write July 20 covered calls for 1.50-2. will do that next week. might be a mistake.

CNQ 56, have covered calls at 60 various dates. this stock is volatile and premium for options can be high.

NXY has held up well, will not add to the position. was helped last week by a story about their buzzard project. no call on the stock.

PWt.un own a very small amount. should have sold it all, however pays a good yield and income trust or not stock has value.

still have oil (on Toronto) stops are in place.
hard to time the market, and not sure how ENI trades, as for the names above just caution.
will probably be giving upside by using the calls.

Sunlife made a purchase in the US, market liked the deal and Sunlife is trading just under $50 cdn.

like the deal because in the first deal should add 5 cents a share to earnings. probably more going forward. Sunlife probably has 8-15% upside in 2007 counting div.

own Sunlife,and Manulife. long term holding.

thanks
selkirk

 

[s_dooley24]

Selkirk-

Any thoughts on CHK as a natural gas play?

 

[djv]

Any you guys in Apple. Saw fast money tonight and there saying may be more to back dating of options then out to public. And iphone will not be out till June. They believe stock may have upside of another buck or two in next day or two and then would be a good time to sell. Or if you did well already sell now. They think a hit could be hard and slow stock down till summer shake out. If nothing else it will be interesting to see how right they are. I will be watching close. Im in with 75 shares at 70. So im not gong to play pig.

 

[selkirk]

just like to point out that the TLM July calls 20 trade at .90-1.25, when they do trade. even the 19 calls would be about 1.40, not 1.50-2 wishfull thinking on my part.

Dooley I looked at CHK, six months ago, estimates 06 3.3 and for 07 2.80. I do not own it, play natural gas through my energy companies listed above especially eca.

however CHK is just as good and could be argued better....in the short term than eca. still would not be in a rush to add a energy play until the downturn is over.... most of these stocks have held up well considering the weakness in gas and especially oil of late. will wait to see strength in oil before add to my energy holdings.

DJV I once bought Apple at much cheaper prices, at one time before the ipod they were a value stock. high amount of cash, and if they could ever make anything off of their business, computers...well...hello I pod.

should note sold after 50% gain on my small position. of coarse try not to think about how much I left on the table.

the ipod is great, children ask for it at christmas. taking some profits is not bad at least on some of the stock.

long term the iphone has great potential in the short term 1-2 years. however the stock has had a great run and people may take some money off the table.

hard to call a direction short term like flipping a coin.

long term mobile phone business is very difficult, just look at the run RIM had when they cam out with the pearl. now a host of new enteries, would not hold rim, short term 6 months.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks for input Kirk--
-- can't see oil staying in $50's and figured now would be good time to add one. NXY has held up much better than PTR on down turn--however will ride both for long term--lost ground trying to time PTR previously

 

[djv]

I like your NXY also. What I'm doing is trying a basket of three. NXY, USO, and on the mechanical side RIG. Just added USO. Had to at that lower price. Sold out the Apple this morning glad I did. I want to keep the money in play, So USO looked right with the RIG And NXY that I have had for a while. But that's all in that category I want. I try never to go by 3 in one area. How about you guys?

 

[selkirk]

DJV agree an investor should not have to many investments in one sector. sometimes I have more than 3 holding in one sector...ie. oil/gas.

watched The Smartest Guys in the Room, about Enron, the stock went up 50% in 98 and almost 100% in 99, was widely covered with buy reports from most of the major brokerages.

postive press, the whole thing was a fraud. and some investors had everything in the stock.

In Canada the major index is made up of Energy/oil 29%, Financials, and materials (metals,).
so have large holdings in these groups though less than the index.

materials and energy /oil can be very volatile, have seen when these stocks can drop 20% on little news and small declines 5% or less. just have to keep that in mind.

TLM is also holding up well.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

well since Friday the oils have done well.

this is probably due to:

1. natural gas above 7
2. oil rebounding off of 50 to close above 55
3. colder weather in the US and Europe. okay eastern US.

Major reason though is that Royal dutch shell is trying to take over shell canada. the minority shareholders are not going away easily.

40 no, and now 45 seems not to have to many takers. the results of shell Canada were not good but this is an oil sands play, they were looking at 500,000 barrels a day now they are using numbers of 700,000 barrels a day. also a reserve life that is 4X longer than royal dutch!!

so Nexen and Cnq both have oil sands plays have gone up since they are cheap when compared to the value of Shell Canada.

Also there was a story in the globe (Globe and Mail Report on Business) a day ago that Total was looking at buying Nexxen.

these stocks are volatile. today
NXY 74.27 3.4%
TLM 5.1%
CNQ 1.2%
SU.1%
ECA .1%
pca -.5%

actually no shock on an great day for energy pca to show a loss. have not had time to write covered calls on TLM and since it is moving well, no hurry. nxy is also not hedged.

the rest are to some extent. a pullback would not be out of the question as some of these stocks have had great runs.

still also own oil on Toronto. have no idea why I still own pca, however you need one stock to hate.

thanks
selkirk

 

[s_dooley24]

Article on Energy plays for 2007, touches on some of the stocks mentioned above

http://news.morningstar.com/article/article.asp?id=181991&pgid=wwhome1a

 

[selkirk]

good article dooley. heard of most of the names on the list. would put NXY and CNQ at higher ratings.

especially cnq which has not had the same run up as NXY on takeover rumours. one cnd name that is not on the list and should be is TLM.

they just made a major discovery off of Vietnam. they are big in north sea (norway), and in north America. also not afraid to go almost anywhere else.

Carl Ichan is rumoured to be buying the stock or about to.... who knows however some want the stock broken up into three parts. great managment and growing production. and they are selling off smaller properites and buying back stock.

it is up around 10% in the last few weeks.

the only one that has not had a decent run is pca. and PWT.un but that is a trust with different issues.

thanks
selkirk