I got a bet in yesterday on DEN -3.5 after reading about Davis' retirement party and SF not playing their starters much tonight. Now, the line is up to -6 and I was wondering, since I don't have a lot of experience playing middles, if anyone has any thoughts on whether this is a good spot to try one, or if I should wait until the line moves higher before doing it. Only a 2.5 point difference, so I'm not sure if that's enough. Thanks.
Enough gap for a middle?
- Thread starter Heyward
- Start date
It depends.
Only about 10% of games can be expected to land on 4 or 5. (6.8 and 3% respectively.) So you really didnt move across a key number here. Now if you moved from 2.5 to 5, more than 20% of games will land on 3 or 4 - thats a solid play.
I guess it depends on what kind of chance you want to take. Probably not worth a play IMHO
Only about 10% of games can be expected to land on 4 or 5. (6.8 and 3% respectively.) So you really didnt move across a key number here. Now if you moved from 2.5 to 5, more than 20% of games will land on 3 or 4 - thats a solid play.
I guess it depends on what kind of chance you want to take. Probably not worth a play IMHO
Maybe
Maybe
Your problem with the middle is that you miss out on the key number of 3. You still get 4, 5, and maybe a full 6 if it goes to 6.5. I am not an expert but the numbers will probably show it is worth a shot. I don't middle very often unless I get the -2.5, +3.5 but I think the charts show you still have a long term edge with 4, 5, and part of 6. If you get 6.5 it is defintely worth a shot.
Tom
Maybe
Your problem with the middle is that you miss out on the key number of 3. You still get 4, 5, and maybe a full 6 if it goes to 6.5. I am not an expert but the numbers will probably show it is worth a shot. I don't middle very often unless I get the -2.5, +3.5 but I think the charts show you still have a long term edge with 4, 5, and part of 6. If you get 6.5 it is defintely worth a shot.
Tom
If you can eitehr capture the 3 (not possible it seems) or the 6 as a win (not a PUSH) this might be a decent middle. I'm a contrarian here and look for this game to go UNDER 39.5, so I can see a Denver 4,5, ot 6 point win. But the PUSH on 6 negates some of the edge. You need to win with at least two key number, and preferably 3. 4 and 6 would give you a fair middle, but not the best -- kinda simlar to the CHI-STL game where the sharps bet the line donw to 3.5 and then back up to 6 or 6.5 Rams were ahead by 4 late in the game and then blew it -- but that was a helluva middle. Same thing could happen here.
Nolan
Nolan
Line just hit 6.5 (thank you ESPN NFL Matchup for all the T. Davis retirement hype), so I'm going to give it a try.
Thanks for the advice everybody. I was thinking of the question in terms of the size of the gap rather than how many key numbers are involved. I hadn't been thinking about that before, but it makes a lot of sense. Hopefully, now that I'm getting a win on the 4 and the 6, it's worth a shot.
Thanks for the advice everybody. I was thinking of the question in terms of the size of the gap rather than how many key numbers are involved. I hadn't been thinking about that before, but it makes a lot of sense. Hopefully, now that I'm getting a win on the 4 and the 6, it's worth a shot.
