Thursday
Utah -8 over Texas A&M: At this time last year, we told you how good a coach Urban Meyer was, but I don't even think even Meyer felt Utah would win the conference in his first year. Now he's loaded with 17 returning starters, a solid quarterback in Alex Smith and a chance to be nationally rated. The Aggies come in off a horrible first year under Dennis Franchione, who might not have gotten out of Alabama alive had he stayed and had that kind of season. To make matters worse, he has to choose between two inexperienced QBs. Instead of getting better last year, the Aggies got worse with a defense that looked more suited for Conference USA than the Big 12. Franchione knows his rep is on the line, but opening with a shaky team, at a killer, at night and on national TV is a prescription for disaster.
The pick: Utah.
TCU -6? over Northwestern: This one is simple. TCU got lit up late last year by good passing teams after star safety and team leader Marvin Godbolt went down. He's back, and even if he wasn't, Northwestern couldn't pass it's way to a Pop Warner title. Four, count 'em, four touchdown passes were all they managed last season. Stack that against 13 interceptions for QB Brett Basanez. And he's back, which is good news for TCU. Other than that, TCU owns the speed, has most of a terrific offense returning, and wants to prove it's BCS worthy this year. Take the home team, especially at night on ESPN, particularly when they're this much better.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Friday
Washington State -2? over New Mexico: The Cougars were a brutally tough team last year under Bill Doba. Last year Washington State was as tough as anybody in the Pac-10 and dominated Texas in the Holiday Bowl. But most of that starting team is gone. Can Doba do it again with fresh meat? We're betting he can. Six-foot-five QB Josh Swogger, who got plenty of action last year when starter Matt Kegel kept getting hurt, may be ready for the big time. If not, he'll at least find the New Mexico defense inviting. The Lobos gave up 34 or more five times last year, including 55 to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and don't appear to have improved there at all. They should be solid on offense again this year but are a little light on experience. Last year this game ended 23-13 at Washington State but looks to be more wide open this time, with the Cougars starting fresh on defense. Still, an entire new defense with the Cougars coaching staff is likely to outplay the Lobos, even on the road. We'll take our chances.
The pick: Washington State.
Saturday
Rutgers +6 over Michigan State: Let me say this one time. Greg Schiano is building something positive at Rutgers. The former Miami defensive coordinator, now in his fourth season in New Jersey, won five games last season and was in all of the other six but one. The 44-28 loss at Michigan State last September was a very close game until late. Quarterback Ryan Hart looked good last year and will be even better this year with superior targets. The running backs are very solid, with sophomore Justice Hairston a star on the rise. The defense, however, will tell the story. It gave up 34 or more seven times last year. It looks improved this time round, but we'll have to see. Michigan State should be solid again this year after a big run in the Big Ten last season, coach John L. Smith's first at East Lansing. The offense, however, loses Jeff Smoker and has only three returning starters and may take a while to get rolling. The defense should be fine with five starters back from a blitz-happy squad. The bottom line here is we think the game means a lot more to Rutgers than it does to the Spartans, who are probably thinking more about Notre Dame, two weeks away.
The pick: Rutgers.
Temple +16 over Virginia: Temple hung very tough last year in road losses at Penn State, Cincinnati and Louisville and at home against Virginia Tech, losing three games in OT. The Owls have seven starters back on both offense and defense and have a terrific passing combo in Walter Washington to Mike McGann. Washington might even be the best quarterback in the Big East. On D, they are led by all-league LB Rian Wallace and overall could pull a few surprises, including in its home opener here against Virgina.
The Cavs are ranked in the top 15 by many and have a solid offense with new QB Marques Hagans replacing the graduated Matt Schaub. Hagans might not throw as well as Schaub, but he sure can run better. On defense Virginia may have the nation's best linebacking tandem under Al Groh, who used to coach linebackers for the New York Jets. Yes, Virginia should win, but they won't have the incentive Temple does here. Can't see the Cavs taking them seriously until they get chewed out at halftime.
The pick: Temple.
Navy -7 vs. Duke: This is an intriguing game. Opening up on the road at Navy seems like a much easier task than opening at Virginia, which the Blue Devils did last year with a 27-0 whitewashing. Then again who wants to face the Navy offensive attack, which looks more like Knute Rockne's than anything else. In Paul Johnson, the Midshipman have one of the best coaches in the country. Add to that 15 starters returning from a team that went to a bowl. Duke, on the other hand, improved under Ted Roof, who got the job midseason last year. They have a good passing attack and should be able to move the ball against Navy. And finding an opponent they can possibly beat is especially enticing in September, with the likes of Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Virginia Tech on the horizon. The game could be tight. Then again Navy might blow them away.
The pick: Pass.
Texas Tech -24 over SMU: Mike Leach is a great offensive mind and oversaw the country's No. 1 attack last year. B.J. Symons is gone after setting records for a QB, but Leach will find somebody who fits perfectly into the system to run the team. There's a lot of starting depth coming back on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, which could be the bad news, too, as the Red Raiders gave up 40 or more six times last year.
SMU returns 20 starters from a team that went 0-12. That team averaged 11 points a game and only reached 20 once. Draw your own conclusion. Texas Tech whacked the Mustangs in the opener last year 58-10, and there's no reason to expect something else here.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).
Sunday
Kentucky +9 over Louisville: I know, I know. Louisville is supposed to be loaded this year. Some polls have them as high as 12th, etc. But that's what they said last year, and the Cardinals still disappointed despite a nine-win season. Bobby Petrino can recruit, which is why Clemson wanted him, but can he coach? Kentucky had three heartbreaking losses last year to Florida, Arkansas (6 OTs) and South Carolina, which showed their potential. Quarterback Shane Boyd will be an elusive target both running and throwing for Kentucky, and the Wildcats have nine defensive starters back. This is just too many points for a backyard rivalry.
The pick: Kentucky.
Houston -3 over Rice: The Cougars won seven games and went to a bowl last year with a very improved team for Kevin Briles. QB Kevin Kolb returns and might be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The defense needs to improve, giving up an average of 51 points in its five losses -- all to bowl teams. How can it not? It will have to get ready for Ken Hatfield's famed triple-option attack again, which it held off successfully in last year's opener, 48-10. This one will be closer, but Houston has too much firepower with Kolb.
The pick: Houston.
Monday
South Florida -1? over Pittsburgh: The South Florida Bulls won 21 straight home games before dropping a 13-10 decision to TCU last year. They also lost to UAB by three at home later in the season, also no disgrace. South Florida isn't quite as deep as last year, but Pitt lost just about every leader it had, including Rod Rutherford and Larry Fitzgerald from the offense. It looks like the Panthers may have picked the wrong spot to open. The crowd and the Bulls will be frenzied and swarming. This is some home field advantage with the crowd nearly in your lap. Pittsburgh's only break is the game isn't under the lights, but it will be on national TV.
The pick: South Florida.
Passing thoughts
Oklahoma giving nearly five touchdowns seems like a lot, but keep in mind the Sooners scored 50 or more six of 11 times in the regular season last year, and scored 34 or more four of the other five. Bowling Green is a terrific MAC team but is outmatched here. Their only chance is if their good defensive ends can put pressure on the Sooners' passing game. ... Texas has a habit of clocking the little guys and choking in the big ones. North Texas is a little guy in this one. ... Tulsa improved by leaps and bounds last year so don't ask why they're such a small underdog at Kansas. ... Ohio State probably hasn't forgotten how its season almost went down the drain last year at Cincinnati, but don't look for a big blowout as a result. The guess is the Buckeyes still aren't taking them seriously. ... FSU and Miami adorn our screens Labor Day night. Miami could be in for a long season if its offense reverts to '03 form, but the Seminoles haven't shown Oklahoma-type execution in some time now. This rivalry tends to produce sloppy games, which are a letdown to watch and good to stay away from when it comes to investing hard-earned capital. Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last season.
Utah -8 over Texas A&M: At this time last year, we told you how good a coach Urban Meyer was, but I don't even think even Meyer felt Utah would win the conference in his first year. Now he's loaded with 17 returning starters, a solid quarterback in Alex Smith and a chance to be nationally rated. The Aggies come in off a horrible first year under Dennis Franchione, who might not have gotten out of Alabama alive had he stayed and had that kind of season. To make matters worse, he has to choose between two inexperienced QBs. Instead of getting better last year, the Aggies got worse with a defense that looked more suited for Conference USA than the Big 12. Franchione knows his rep is on the line, but opening with a shaky team, at a killer, at night and on national TV is a prescription for disaster.
The pick: Utah.
TCU -6? over Northwestern: This one is simple. TCU got lit up late last year by good passing teams after star safety and team leader Marvin Godbolt went down. He's back, and even if he wasn't, Northwestern couldn't pass it's way to a Pop Warner title. Four, count 'em, four touchdown passes were all they managed last season. Stack that against 13 interceptions for QB Brett Basanez. And he's back, which is good news for TCU. Other than that, TCU owns the speed, has most of a terrific offense returning, and wants to prove it's BCS worthy this year. Take the home team, especially at night on ESPN, particularly when they're this much better.
The pick: TCU (best bet).
Friday
Washington State -2? over New Mexico: The Cougars were a brutally tough team last year under Bill Doba. Last year Washington State was as tough as anybody in the Pac-10 and dominated Texas in the Holiday Bowl. But most of that starting team is gone. Can Doba do it again with fresh meat? We're betting he can. Six-foot-five QB Josh Swogger, who got plenty of action last year when starter Matt Kegel kept getting hurt, may be ready for the big time. If not, he'll at least find the New Mexico defense inviting. The Lobos gave up 34 or more five times last year, including 55 to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and don't appear to have improved there at all. They should be solid on offense again this year but are a little light on experience. Last year this game ended 23-13 at Washington State but looks to be more wide open this time, with the Cougars starting fresh on defense. Still, an entire new defense with the Cougars coaching staff is likely to outplay the Lobos, even on the road. We'll take our chances.
The pick: Washington State.
Saturday
Rutgers +6 over Michigan State: Let me say this one time. Greg Schiano is building something positive at Rutgers. The former Miami defensive coordinator, now in his fourth season in New Jersey, won five games last season and was in all of the other six but one. The 44-28 loss at Michigan State last September was a very close game until late. Quarterback Ryan Hart looked good last year and will be even better this year with superior targets. The running backs are very solid, with sophomore Justice Hairston a star on the rise. The defense, however, will tell the story. It gave up 34 or more seven times last year. It looks improved this time round, but we'll have to see. Michigan State should be solid again this year after a big run in the Big Ten last season, coach John L. Smith's first at East Lansing. The offense, however, loses Jeff Smoker and has only three returning starters and may take a while to get rolling. The defense should be fine with five starters back from a blitz-happy squad. The bottom line here is we think the game means a lot more to Rutgers than it does to the Spartans, who are probably thinking more about Notre Dame, two weeks away.
The pick: Rutgers.
Temple +16 over Virginia: Temple hung very tough last year in road losses at Penn State, Cincinnati and Louisville and at home against Virginia Tech, losing three games in OT. The Owls have seven starters back on both offense and defense and have a terrific passing combo in Walter Washington to Mike McGann. Washington might even be the best quarterback in the Big East. On D, they are led by all-league LB Rian Wallace and overall could pull a few surprises, including in its home opener here against Virgina.
The Cavs are ranked in the top 15 by many and have a solid offense with new QB Marques Hagans replacing the graduated Matt Schaub. Hagans might not throw as well as Schaub, but he sure can run better. On defense Virginia may have the nation's best linebacking tandem under Al Groh, who used to coach linebackers for the New York Jets. Yes, Virginia should win, but they won't have the incentive Temple does here. Can't see the Cavs taking them seriously until they get chewed out at halftime.
The pick: Temple.
Navy -7 vs. Duke: This is an intriguing game. Opening up on the road at Navy seems like a much easier task than opening at Virginia, which the Blue Devils did last year with a 27-0 whitewashing. Then again who wants to face the Navy offensive attack, which looks more like Knute Rockne's than anything else. In Paul Johnson, the Midshipman have one of the best coaches in the country. Add to that 15 starters returning from a team that went to a bowl. Duke, on the other hand, improved under Ted Roof, who got the job midseason last year. They have a good passing attack and should be able to move the ball against Navy. And finding an opponent they can possibly beat is especially enticing in September, with the likes of Florida State, Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Virginia Tech on the horizon. The game could be tight. Then again Navy might blow them away.
The pick: Pass.
Texas Tech -24 over SMU: Mike Leach is a great offensive mind and oversaw the country's No. 1 attack last year. B.J. Symons is gone after setting records for a QB, but Leach will find somebody who fits perfectly into the system to run the team. There's a lot of starting depth coming back on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, which could be the bad news, too, as the Red Raiders gave up 40 or more six times last year.
SMU returns 20 starters from a team that went 0-12. That team averaged 11 points a game and only reached 20 once. Draw your own conclusion. Texas Tech whacked the Mustangs in the opener last year 58-10, and there's no reason to expect something else here.
The pick: Texas Tech (best bet).
Sunday
Kentucky +9 over Louisville: I know, I know. Louisville is supposed to be loaded this year. Some polls have them as high as 12th, etc. But that's what they said last year, and the Cardinals still disappointed despite a nine-win season. Bobby Petrino can recruit, which is why Clemson wanted him, but can he coach? Kentucky had three heartbreaking losses last year to Florida, Arkansas (6 OTs) and South Carolina, which showed their potential. Quarterback Shane Boyd will be an elusive target both running and throwing for Kentucky, and the Wildcats have nine defensive starters back. This is just too many points for a backyard rivalry.
The pick: Kentucky.
Houston -3 over Rice: The Cougars won seven games and went to a bowl last year with a very improved team for Kevin Briles. QB Kevin Kolb returns and might be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The defense needs to improve, giving up an average of 51 points in its five losses -- all to bowl teams. How can it not? It will have to get ready for Ken Hatfield's famed triple-option attack again, which it held off successfully in last year's opener, 48-10. This one will be closer, but Houston has too much firepower with Kolb.
The pick: Houston.
Monday
South Florida -1? over Pittsburgh: The South Florida Bulls won 21 straight home games before dropping a 13-10 decision to TCU last year. They also lost to UAB by three at home later in the season, also no disgrace. South Florida isn't quite as deep as last year, but Pitt lost just about every leader it had, including Rod Rutherford and Larry Fitzgerald from the offense. It looks like the Panthers may have picked the wrong spot to open. The crowd and the Bulls will be frenzied and swarming. This is some home field advantage with the crowd nearly in your lap. Pittsburgh's only break is the game isn't under the lights, but it will be on national TV.
The pick: South Florida.
Passing thoughts
Oklahoma giving nearly five touchdowns seems like a lot, but keep in mind the Sooners scored 50 or more six of 11 times in the regular season last year, and scored 34 or more four of the other five. Bowling Green is a terrific MAC team but is outmatched here. Their only chance is if their good defensive ends can put pressure on the Sooners' passing game. ... Texas has a habit of clocking the little guys and choking in the big ones. North Texas is a little guy in this one. ... Tulsa improved by leaps and bounds last year so don't ask why they're such a small underdog at Kansas. ... Ohio State probably hasn't forgotten how its season almost went down the drain last year at Cincinnati, but don't look for a big blowout as a result. The guess is the Buckeyes still aren't taking them seriously. ... FSU and Miami adorn our screens Labor Day night. Miami could be in for a long season if its offense reverts to '03 form, but the Seminoles haven't shown Oklahoma-type execution in some time now. This rivalry tends to produce sloppy games, which are a letdown to watch and good to stay away from when it comes to investing hard-earned capital. Rich Podolsky went 92-76-3 picking college football games for Insider last season.
