Estoril Open de Portugal

Stanley

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The first three months of the season have passed, so it's time to increase the stakes to their 'normal' levels, plus branch out to other Tours.

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano to beat Rory McIlroy -115 @ Five Dimes
Continuing to oppose McIlroy while he is priced up on the basis of his potential rather than his recent results. GFC leads him 10-5-1 h2h in the first two rounds and with a tee-time advantage (the morning group averaged 1.5 shots better than the afternoon group in round 1 last year) and free of being last week's co-organiser, he should beat McIlroy tomorrow

Stephen Gallacher to beat Mark Foster -119 @ Five Dimes
Easy to oppose Foster who has made just one cut in his last seven starts and has failed to finish ahead of Gallacher in any of his last six attempts. The morning-afternoon split in their tee-times should also help

Peter Baker to beat Stephen O'Hara -115 @ Five Dimes
Opposing O'Hara for similar reasons. He has missed all three cuts this year, averaging 74.7, and has struggled in five of six rounds on this course

Ross McGowan to beat Steve Webster -115 @ Five Dimes
Backing McGowan who led by 2 shots at the cut last year - Webster missed the cut - and who has yet to be beaten by Webster in the 1st round this year

Jose Manuel Lara to beat Gregory Bourdy +100 @ Bet365
Lara has finished ahead of Bourdy in seven of their last eight common events and, with Bourdy missing the cut on both occasions that this course has been used on the European Tour, Lara has also finished ahead of him on both those occasions, the last time by 11 shots after 36 holes

Pelle Edberg to beat Gregory Bourdy -102 @ Five Dimes
Another morning-afternoon split in favour of the backed player and with Edberg showing good form last week, he looks worth backing in this match
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Outrights:

Phillip Archer(66/1) e.w.
Thomas Bjorn(40/1) e.w.
Peter Lawrie(55/1) e.w.
Ross McGowan(50/1) e.w.
Jose-Filipe Lima(125/1) e.w.

toddler_fishing.jpg


GL
 

Stanley

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Round 2 play (2pts):

Ulrich Van Den Berg to beat Ben Evans -130 @ Five Dimes
Evans' best ever start to a Tour event was to be 64th after 18 holes, so I can't see him holding onto his current 14th place position. By contrast, Van Den Berg has plenty of experience with five victories on the Southern Africa Tour
 

Stanley

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Round 4 plays (2pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano +130 @ Five Dimes
Bourdy has held the 3rd round lead three times, but shot 69 to finish 2nd in the 2003 Danish Open, 69 to win the 2006 Telkom PGA Championship and 67 to win the 2007 Mallorca Classic less than six months ago. With those performances when in the lead, he is worth a sho at these odds

Sam Little to beat Peter Baker +110 @ BlueSq
Sam Little to beat Simon Khan +100 @ Five Dimes
Backing a player who ranks an impressive 18th on Tour in 4th round scoring average over the past 12 months and is in much better form than his opponents who have missed both their last two cuts
 
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