Making some plays based on mathematical numbers, expected outcomes and outright hunches.
Heres my breakdown on the final.
Spain - Draw - Germany
39 - 34 - 27
Theres not a lot of discrepancy to be found between the 3 possibles and certainly the draw produces the highest EO of the bunch.
What really puts these numbers out of sync is the fact that Villa and Ballack are most likely out. Its impossible to assign a tangible, intrinsic value on these players in relation to the team. The loss of Villa has much more impact on Spain compared to the loss of overrated Ballack due to the amount of quality shots taken.
I truly believe that Spain is the better team and they should be able to come out on top. Its also very possible that the game opens up pretty tight with so much on the line. Klose and Podolski and much better on the front line versus what Spain will begin with assuming its just F Torres.
The books just arent giving up very much with Spain at +125 IMO. The most likely outcome for the first half is 0-0 with minimal real scoring chances. My numbers have the 1st half draw at 54.2% so anything at even money or better is a good, safe play.
However, combining the two most likely outcomes in the first half draw and second half Spain gives an high reward/low risk bet that I like to make, and thats just what I will.
Germany vs Spain
Germany vs Spain Halftime / Fulltime score Draw HT / Spain FT +450
Going to take a flyer here on 1st goal scorer. This is a hunch based on what Ive seen and expect from this game. Assuming Guiza doesnt start or get too much playing time, this is pretty solid. Hoping Xavi and Fabregas used more as setup men. Torres is the obvious choice but half the payout.
Germany vs Spain
Player to score the first goal of the match D Silva (Spa) +1000
Looking for a 2-0 Spain victory today. Enjoy the game.
Heres my breakdown on the final.
Spain - Draw - Germany
39 - 34 - 27
Theres not a lot of discrepancy to be found between the 3 possibles and certainly the draw produces the highest EO of the bunch.
What really puts these numbers out of sync is the fact that Villa and Ballack are most likely out. Its impossible to assign a tangible, intrinsic value on these players in relation to the team. The loss of Villa has much more impact on Spain compared to the loss of overrated Ballack due to the amount of quality shots taken.
I truly believe that Spain is the better team and they should be able to come out on top. Its also very possible that the game opens up pretty tight with so much on the line. Klose and Podolski and much better on the front line versus what Spain will begin with assuming its just F Torres.
The books just arent giving up very much with Spain at +125 IMO. The most likely outcome for the first half is 0-0 with minimal real scoring chances. My numbers have the 1st half draw at 54.2% so anything at even money or better is a good, safe play.
However, combining the two most likely outcomes in the first half draw and second half Spain gives an high reward/low risk bet that I like to make, and thats just what I will.
Germany vs Spain
Germany vs Spain Halftime / Fulltime score Draw HT / Spain FT +450
Going to take a flyer here on 1st goal scorer. This is a hunch based on what Ive seen and expect from this game. Assuming Guiza doesnt start or get too much playing time, this is pretty solid. Hoping Xavi and Fabregas used more as setup men. Torres is the obvious choice but half the payout.
Germany vs Spain
Player to score the first goal of the match D Silva (Spa) +1000
Looking for a 2-0 Spain victory today. Enjoy the game.
