okay the market rallied, on the news of the deal and some better than expected news from the US markets had a very good three weeks.
was not surprised the market would go up on news of the deal, was shocked by how much. there was so many details left out.
- if everything works out Greece debt will fall to 120% of GDP compared to 160% currently - to 180% without a deal.
Greece debt (default of 50%) the target has to be 60%, at least since even if half was to default Greece probably cannot pay it back.
- the banks that hold the Greece debt will if needed, and it will be needed have capital invested in them..., so they agree to the default terms, which are not officially a default....confusing.
- where does the money come from, who funds it and by how much is a question, or a pesky detail that has not be completly outlined.
by the way a debt problem cannot be solved with more debt, you can postpone the problem but not solve it...,most of the nations funding this are close to having debt problems.
- finally Greece says they may want a vote on this, wow. who knows.
this is all a sideline, the most important matter is that Italy and Spain bond yields are not going down.
when Italy joined EU they paid at one point 12%, when the interest declined to 4% on their debt, they did not pay off their debt they racked up much more, spent more, and now could not afford 6% on their debt they will go into default.
ie. Spain.
by the way many countries are paying next to nothing on their debt, but are still deeply in debt.
still have a large cash positon, have been trading around positions and watching.
thanks
selkirk
was not surprised the market would go up on news of the deal, was shocked by how much. there was so many details left out.
- if everything works out Greece debt will fall to 120% of GDP compared to 160% currently - to 180% without a deal.
Greece debt (default of 50%) the target has to be 60%, at least since even if half was to default Greece probably cannot pay it back.
- the banks that hold the Greece debt will if needed, and it will be needed have capital invested in them..., so they agree to the default terms, which are not officially a default....confusing.
- where does the money come from, who funds it and by how much is a question, or a pesky detail that has not be completly outlined.
by the way a debt problem cannot be solved with more debt, you can postpone the problem but not solve it...,most of the nations funding this are close to having debt problems.
- finally Greece says they may want a vote on this, wow. who knows.
this is all a sideline, the most important matter is that Italy and Spain bond yields are not going down.
when Italy joined EU they paid at one point 12%, when the interest declined to 4% on their debt, they did not pay off their debt they racked up much more, spent more, and now could not afford 6% on their debt they will go into default.
ie. Spain.
by the way many countries are paying next to nothing on their debt, but are still deeply in debt.
still have a large cash positon, have been trading around positions and watching.
thanks
selkirk
