European Masters

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Brooks Koepka to beat Bradley Dredge -110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Bet365 and Stan James]
Dredge has been playing very well recently, but he is still not in the same class as Koepka who was 15th in the PGA Championship and has earned his PGA Tour Card for next season via non-member FedEx Cup points despite not even having a Tour Card for the season and even having to enter Monday qualifying for PGA Tour events up to late April. Course history is important on this course and he finished 7th here last year whereas Dredge may be a former champion eight years ago, but has missed the cut in each of last three visits.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Willett tb Ramsay -125; Koepka tb Ilonen -110; Kieffer tb Grillo -102; Chowrasia tb Manley -109]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Bradley Dredge(40/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(50/1) e.w
Brett Rumford(150/1) e.w.
Peter Lawrie(500/1) e.w.
Matthew Fitzpatrick(150/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Maximilian Kieffer to beat Emiliano Grillo +116 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes and Stan James]
Grillo had the better of rd1, but Kieffer has been in much better form recently with a 6-1-1 h2h record against the Argentinean over the last four months. He also finished 13th on this course last year wheras Grillo missed the cut on his debut last year. That points to a probable bounce-back from the German tomorrow and these are good odds on that happening.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 play (2pts):

Shane Lowry to beat Tommy Fleetwood -116 @ Bet365
Fleetwood has shown an improvement in form recently, but Lowry stills leads him 7-0-1 h2h since May. Both players are in the top-10 at the start of the weekend but that statistic shows that it is Lowry who is more likely to remain in contention for the next 36 hours.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Lowry tb Ramsay -120; Koepka tb Molinari -120]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 play (2pts):

David Lipsky to beat Graeme Storm -120 @ Stan James
Opposing Storm who leads a European Tour event after 54 holes for only the third time in his career. In the two previous occasions, he shot 76 in rd4 to finish 18th in 2006 New Zealand Open and he shot 73 in rd4 in the 2012 KLM Open to finish 5th. With that record when leading and without a top-50 finish in his last six starts, he looks a go-against player tomorrow. Lipsky has been in much better form with top-25 finishes in each of the last three weeks and he leads the event in greens in regulation so far this week - he should be a good player to take advantage of any problems that Storm faces tomorrow.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Koepka tb Fleetwood -119; Olesen tb Manassero +100; Lowry tb Warren -111; Howell tb Karlberg -105]