European Open

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Johan Edfors(70/1) e.w.
- - Harry's course preview evoked a venue smack dab in Edfors? wheelhouse . . . After the first couple months of 2007, I had Edfors capped as fade material or pass without exception for the full balance of 2007; I?ve had him marked as one to watch for 2008 without personally catching much of a payoff during his initial run during the season, and I?ve been biding my time for signs of and/or opportunities for catching his second wind in 2008.

Francesco Molinari(66/1) e.w.
- - The course suits well enough, and the timing seems about right when charting his play.

Oliver Wilson(50/1) e.w.
- - Last week didn?t work out so well.

Charl Schwartzel(40/1) e.w.
- - Seems a better candidate this week than Darren Clarke for earning a spot in the Open Championship.

Simon Dyson(100/1) e.w.
- - Abysmal on home soil . . .Another player on whom I?ve been biding my time for some signs of momentum to uncork his streaky potential, and he delivered twice in one week, IMO.

Darren Clarke(55/1) e.w.
- - I like the pairing more than the venue this week . . . When I look and pass judgment, there?s plenty there to spark his spirited push for a spot in the Open Championship, instead of striking out while just looking at 3 pitches and never having the bat leave his shoulder . . .. I?ll stubbornly be there next week, regardless of this week.

Emanuele Canonica(250/1) e.w.
- - Offers the most appeal to me amongst the season-making prices.

Still finishing up . . .


Matchups:

Edfors(+131) over McGane/PaLawrie (1st Round)


GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (2pts):

Mikko Ilonen to beat Rory McIlroy -102 @ Five Dimes
McIlroy does not have a good history of following up low scores with another one. He has shot less than 70 nine times in the opening round, but only followed it up with a second sub-70 round on two occasions, averaging over 73 in the 2nd round in this scenario. So it is no surprise that he ranks a lowly 144th in 2nd round scoring over the last 12 months; that puts the value on Ilonen in this matchup

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (2pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Ross Fisher -118 @ Unibet [available widely]
Peter Hanson to beat Ross Fisher @ Five Dimes
Simply opposing the second round leader who has held the lead after 36 holes on three occasions previously and has yet to finish the third round with even a share of the lead, averaging 75 in the process. McDowell is in prime position to take advantage and apply the pressure in the final pairing, while these appear good odds on Hanson who is in 13th place and playing without any of the pressure faced by Fisher

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Graeme McDowell to beat Ross Fisher -118 @ Unibet [available widely]
Peter Hanson to beat Ross Fisher -135 @ Five Dimes
Repeating yesterday's plays against Fisher. Sure, they both lost, but McDowell never trailed Fisher until the last hole when he bogeyed it and Fisher had the only birdie of the day on the hardest hole on the course, averaging 0.59 shots over par. As for Hanson, he was leading Fisher before the Englishman eagled the 15th. Fisher clearly showed the early signs of pressure - he was two-over-par after seven holes - and he will face a lot more today and again, his record is not good in this situation. He has won once from four attempts when leading the event heading into the final round (2007 KLM Open), but his failures include a final round 84 around Wentworth when 4th round leader of the 2007 BMW PGA Championship and who can forget the drama of the 2007 HSBC Champions Tournament ... needing only a bogey six on the last hole to beat Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood, he found the greenside rough in two, but hit his pitch straight over the green into the water and took a double-bogey seven and lost the playoff. He has to be opposed today.

Michael Jonzon to beat Stephen Gallacher -110 @ Five Dimes
The last two occasions that Gallacher has entered the final round in the top-10, he has shot 76, so it is little wonder that his best finish this year is 19th - Jonzon has a 3rd and 6th place finish to his name in 2008 - and that he ranks 110th (of 131) in final round scoring over the last 12 months. The value is clearly with Jonzon who ranks 3rd in that category