Round 1 plays (1pt):
Ben Curtis to beat John Daly -145 @ The Greek [also available @ William Hill]
They may have played in only three common events over the past 12 months (though that does include last week's BMW PGA Championship), but Curtis has shot the lower score than Daly in every single round over that period.
Shane Lowry to beat Shaun Micheel +100 @ Five Dimes
Surprising to see Micheel in this event, and having finished 72nd in the Byron Nelson Championship there may be some after-effects from the travelling in the early stages of this event. Difficult to predict how Lowry will play in this event, but at least he has had a week to celebrate his Tour win and will not be short of confidence.
Richard Green to beat Pablo Martin -149 @ Unibet
They have played in 20 common events since the start of 2008, but Martin has shot the lower 1st round only four times (and finished ahead of Green at the end of the event only three times). So, with Green showing better form each week since his return to the Tour after a two-month layoff, he should again dominate this matchup.
Sergio Garcia to beat Ross Fisher +105 @ SkyBet [tie loses] [also available @ Five Dimes]
Fisher beat Garcia to this title last year, but since the Open Championship last year, Fisher has finished behind Garcia in every common European Tour event and has shot the higher score in every 1st round. Fisher may be the defending champion, but in his only previous event as a defending champion, he only just made the cut at the 2008 KLM Open and after his efforts at Wentworth last week, there may well be some fatigue this week.
Francesco Molinari to beat David Horsey -110 @ The Greek [also available @ William Hill]
Molinari's form is enough to beat anyone in this field. Since the Tour reached Europe, he has finished 3rd, 3rd, 11th, 6th, disqualified (in the 2nd round, but had been the 1st round leader after breaking the course record) and 35th (despite an opening 77 last week). Horsey started well last week, but shot higher in every successive round and shouldn't be pick'em with the Italian.