FOUND THIS AT ANOTHER SITE AND FELT THE RESEACH AND RATIONALE IS EXCELLENT. THOUGHT I WOULD POST IT HERE FOR ALL TO SEE.
Florida St -8? (1'st Half) at Louisville
Seminoles 1H - Only like the 1H in this game, more on that later. Feel Seminoles are the vastly superior team. L'ville has an above average defense, but not as good as their stats and of course have big name QB-Ragone, but have little else on offense to compliment him. Cards OL young and inexperienced and Noles should dominate up front. Weather will be a factor in tonights game with rain of up to one inch expected in the evening with winds 20-30 MPH. Florida St is the much more balanced offensive team, averaging 230 yards on the ground and 259 through the air. Cards rely mostly on the pass and with the combination of rain/wind and a below average OL, should be at a disadvantage. Noles very strong stopping the run allowing only a 100/game with a 3 yard average. L'ville run defense stats appear even better, but breaking it down, shows they dominated weak teams Army and Duke holding each under 30 rushing yards. Kentucky a passing team didn't try to much on the ground and the one good rushing team they faced, Colo St ran for 205 yards with a 4.6 ypc. Like FSU's HB-Greg Jones in sloppy conditions, he goes at about 250 lbs and will be hard to stop. Just don't see Cards with a back that can matchup against FSU defense. Another misleading defensive stat is with Florida St. It appears that they have a weak pass defense (104th nationally) allowing 261 yards a game. However much of this comes in garbage time against the second team players, which is partly the reason for a 1H play only. Noles have been dominant in 1H of all their games, especially the L3. Overall in 4 games have outscored their opponents 108 to 17 or for an average of 31.3 to 4.3. Iowa St scored 14 of the 17 aforementioned points but still trailed by 17 points at the half, which has been the Noles slimmest 1H margin thus far. In L3 games they have allowed only 3 first half points while scoring 77. FSU has been giving up 4Q points when (exception Iowa St) the game has been out of hand. Over 70% of the total points allowed by FSU have occured in 4Q. In L3 games they have allowed 40 of the total 46 points allowed, or 87%. Clearly the defense is playing well and dominating through the 3Q, and if they kept their starters in, would be much better statistically. Guess the BCS dropping the margin of victory from the computation has adjusted Bowdens gameplan. Meanwhile Cards have not been good in 1H against the two quality opponents that they have faced. Trailed 7 to 16 against Kentucky and 14 to 20 against Colo St and attempted to rally late outscoring them 19 to 3 in 4Q. So very leery about FSU keeping the backdoor open late. Throw in the Cards should be nervous/edgy/overpumped early (and have been penalty and TO prone) as this is the biggest game home game the team has had in a long time.
Good Luck!
-Tom--
Florida St -8? (1'st Half) at Louisville
Seminoles 1H - Only like the 1H in this game, more on that later. Feel Seminoles are the vastly superior team. L'ville has an above average defense, but not as good as their stats and of course have big name QB-Ragone, but have little else on offense to compliment him. Cards OL young and inexperienced and Noles should dominate up front. Weather will be a factor in tonights game with rain of up to one inch expected in the evening with winds 20-30 MPH. Florida St is the much more balanced offensive team, averaging 230 yards on the ground and 259 through the air. Cards rely mostly on the pass and with the combination of rain/wind and a below average OL, should be at a disadvantage. Noles very strong stopping the run allowing only a 100/game with a 3 yard average. L'ville run defense stats appear even better, but breaking it down, shows they dominated weak teams Army and Duke holding each under 30 rushing yards. Kentucky a passing team didn't try to much on the ground and the one good rushing team they faced, Colo St ran for 205 yards with a 4.6 ypc. Like FSU's HB-Greg Jones in sloppy conditions, he goes at about 250 lbs and will be hard to stop. Just don't see Cards with a back that can matchup against FSU defense. Another misleading defensive stat is with Florida St. It appears that they have a weak pass defense (104th nationally) allowing 261 yards a game. However much of this comes in garbage time against the second team players, which is partly the reason for a 1H play only. Noles have been dominant in 1H of all their games, especially the L3. Overall in 4 games have outscored their opponents 108 to 17 or for an average of 31.3 to 4.3. Iowa St scored 14 of the 17 aforementioned points but still trailed by 17 points at the half, which has been the Noles slimmest 1H margin thus far. In L3 games they have allowed only 3 first half points while scoring 77. FSU has been giving up 4Q points when (exception Iowa St) the game has been out of hand. Over 70% of the total points allowed by FSU have occured in 4Q. In L3 games they have allowed 40 of the total 46 points allowed, or 87%. Clearly the defense is playing well and dominating through the 3Q, and if they kept their starters in, would be much better statistically. Guess the BCS dropping the margin of victory from the computation has adjusted Bowdens gameplan. Meanwhile Cards have not been good in 1H against the two quality opponents that they have faced. Trailed 7 to 16 against Kentucky and 14 to 20 against Colo St and attempted to rally late outscoring them 19 to 3 in 4Q. So very leery about FSU keeping the backdoor open late. Throw in the Cards should be nervous/edgy/overpumped early (and have been penalty and TO prone) as this is the biggest game home game the team has had in a long time.
Good Luck!
-Tom--
