EXPECT THE IMPOSSIBLE
It is a common saying among sporting types to, "expect the unexpected". True, I say. The unexpected will most certainly occur from time to time. Road teams will win NFL playoff games, bad pitchers will throw shutouts and hall of fame goaltenders will give up soft goals. But in my opinion, the unexpected is the blanket that leaves your feet cold and uncovered on a winter night. The proper saying should be, "Expect the Impossible".
In that gambling is the ultimate test of both money and emotions, the expectation of the impossible is as important in this game as it is anywhere. In fact, it's the very name of the game. Books would like you to think that you are playing against them but the seasoned handicapper knows that gaining the knowledge that eludes other handicappers is the true path to profit. The "expected" is public money. Any single play that can be reasonably made on a few minutes of work or at a quick glance is probably an expected public play.
You know to stay away from public plays because you know to expect the unexpected. But what about the impossible? What about occurances that you absolutely cannot see coming?
How many of you expect to lose $5,000 or more on a single losing streak? I certainly didn't when I started wagering on sports, but I can assure you it's happened at least five times in amounts ranging into five figures. O.K., so I wager more money than the average fellow. True. But the comparison is applicable at any level. How many $100 bettors expect to lose $1,500 or more in a single losing streak three or more times this year? Sounds pretty catastrophic, but it certainly could happen.
We all want to see the best in ourselves so stretches in which we go 6-24 or some such number are hard to fathom until they happen. And if you want a warning about money management, I guess that's it. If you want to keep from going broke, manage your money so that no matter how bad the streak, you always have the ability to recover.
A few years ago, Baz Luhrman, the director of MOULIN ROUGE, produced a song which was spoken word, recitiing a column written by a Chicago newspaper columnist. It was a falsetto graduation speech to the Class of 1999. The most poigniant thing said in the song was that the true problems in your life will never be the ones you see coming. Everyone worries about money, health and love, but the things that cause you the most stress will be the unexpected.
I think those words are generally true of life, and also true of handicapping. Certainly in the marco view protecting yourself against unbelieveable losing streaks is a sound idea, but in the micro view expecting the impossible will help as well.
Judging by the posts on the Message Forum, the biggest area of disaster for most handicappers is betting large amounts of money on a "sure thing". Whether it's a pennant contending baseball team trying to avoid a sweep to a doormat or a similar situation in any other sport, no game can be relied on to hold a gigantic portion of your bankroll. The seductive thing about huge plays on sure things is that you may win one or several of these plays, but in the end you are sure to hit one big loser that wipes you out. For that reason, you at all times must be ready to expect the impossible.
If the message of this column seems redundant when set alongside my previous work, that's because it is. But good money management and avoiding make up bets never gets old. The problem with both is that they are easier said than done. I freely admit to having made many stupid money management decisions and a small number of make up bets. At times I lack discipline. That is why I repeatedly talk about these subjects.
The reason I bring up this topic now is that with baseball season in its dog days, most good teams will go through down cycles where they will take completely shocking losses. While there is no shame in being on the wrong side of one of these losses, make the best of it by staying away from make up bets and avoiding doubling and quadrupling bets in order to chase money by figuring the impossible won't happen. If there's anything a lifetime of sports should have taught us, it's to not only expect the unexpected, but the impossible as well.
It is a common saying among sporting types to, "expect the unexpected". True, I say. The unexpected will most certainly occur from time to time. Road teams will win NFL playoff games, bad pitchers will throw shutouts and hall of fame goaltenders will give up soft goals. But in my opinion, the unexpected is the blanket that leaves your feet cold and uncovered on a winter night. The proper saying should be, "Expect the Impossible".
In that gambling is the ultimate test of both money and emotions, the expectation of the impossible is as important in this game as it is anywhere. In fact, it's the very name of the game. Books would like you to think that you are playing against them but the seasoned handicapper knows that gaining the knowledge that eludes other handicappers is the true path to profit. The "expected" is public money. Any single play that can be reasonably made on a few minutes of work or at a quick glance is probably an expected public play.
You know to stay away from public plays because you know to expect the unexpected. But what about the impossible? What about occurances that you absolutely cannot see coming?
How many of you expect to lose $5,000 or more on a single losing streak? I certainly didn't when I started wagering on sports, but I can assure you it's happened at least five times in amounts ranging into five figures. O.K., so I wager more money than the average fellow. True. But the comparison is applicable at any level. How many $100 bettors expect to lose $1,500 or more in a single losing streak three or more times this year? Sounds pretty catastrophic, but it certainly could happen.
We all want to see the best in ourselves so stretches in which we go 6-24 or some such number are hard to fathom until they happen. And if you want a warning about money management, I guess that's it. If you want to keep from going broke, manage your money so that no matter how bad the streak, you always have the ability to recover.
A few years ago, Baz Luhrman, the director of MOULIN ROUGE, produced a song which was spoken word, recitiing a column written by a Chicago newspaper columnist. It was a falsetto graduation speech to the Class of 1999. The most poigniant thing said in the song was that the true problems in your life will never be the ones you see coming. Everyone worries about money, health and love, but the things that cause you the most stress will be the unexpected.
I think those words are generally true of life, and also true of handicapping. Certainly in the marco view protecting yourself against unbelieveable losing streaks is a sound idea, but in the micro view expecting the impossible will help as well.
Judging by the posts on the Message Forum, the biggest area of disaster for most handicappers is betting large amounts of money on a "sure thing". Whether it's a pennant contending baseball team trying to avoid a sweep to a doormat or a similar situation in any other sport, no game can be relied on to hold a gigantic portion of your bankroll. The seductive thing about huge plays on sure things is that you may win one or several of these plays, but in the end you are sure to hit one big loser that wipes you out. For that reason, you at all times must be ready to expect the impossible.
If the message of this column seems redundant when set alongside my previous work, that's because it is. But good money management and avoiding make up bets never gets old. The problem with both is that they are easier said than done. I freely admit to having made many stupid money management decisions and a small number of make up bets. At times I lack discipline. That is why I repeatedly talk about these subjects.
The reason I bring up this topic now is that with baseball season in its dog days, most good teams will go through down cycles where they will take completely shocking losses. While there is no shame in being on the wrong side of one of these losses, make the best of it by staying away from make up bets and avoiding doubling and quadrupling bets in order to chase money by figuring the impossible won't happen. If there's anything a lifetime of sports should have taught us, it's to not only expect the unexpected, but the impossible as well.
