Fading Bulls early...

[DZ]

Going to start a new thread for this because the other thread title could be misleading. This will be dedicated to playing against the Bulls in the 1st Quarter in games where Cristiano Felicio starts.


For tonight, the Bulls have already confirmed he is starting. So here are the plays...

CHA -3.5 1Q (-115) 5x
CHA SCORE 1ST 10 PTS -165 3x
CHA SCORE 1ST 20 PTS -210 8x



I always play the 1st to 10 pts prop smaller than 1st to 20 because results for the former can be a bit more volatile if a team comes out slow and the Bulls come out and drain a few threes early. Generally, Felicio will stay in there until the 5min mark of the 1
Q, which has typically provided more than enough time for the opposition to reach 20 points, in my observation of this trend. This makes the 1st to 20 prop the best play of the three, especially when the favorite is laying a larger number for the 1st Qtr, as is the case tonight. Charlotte is an above average 1st quarter team and they are at home, so today's situation is optimal.

 

[Jord20]

Going to start a new thread for this because the other thread title could be misleading. This will be dedicated to playing against the Bulls in the 1st Quarter in games where Cristiano Felicio starts.


For tonight, the Bulls have already confirmed he is starting. So here are the plays...

CHA -3.5 1Q (-115) 5x
CHA SCORE 1ST 10 PTS -165 2x
CHA SCORE 1ST 20 PTS -210 8x



I always play the 1st to 10 pts prop smaller than 1st to 20 because results for the former can be a bit more volatile if a team comes out slow and the Bulls come out and drain a few threes early. Generally, Felicio will stay in there until the 5min mark of the 1
Q, which has typically provided more than enough time for the opposition to reach 20 points, in my observation of this trend. This makes the 1st to 20 prop the best play of the three, especially when the favorite is laying a larger number for the 1st Qtr, as is the case tonight. Charlotte is an above average 1st quarter team and they are at home, so today's situation is optimal.

This is hilarious! I got busy yesterday, but my plan was to say this...

I tied Brooklyn into a LOT of plays tonight because I have a certain rule in gambling that goes something like this... anytime Christiano Felicio is starting in a professional basketball game, i will automatically fade that team in as many ways as humanly possible. I don't know his actual +/-, but I am all over this as well. Without any regrets. Also agree with your Dallas reasoning on home vs away.

Good luck, DZ.

 

[OWENS81]

I'm on board!!!! I like it a lot... Good luck DZ!!! Hopefully I finally caught one of your winners in time...

 

[DZ]

For the record, in the three games Felicio has started (all coming since the all-star break), playing against the Bulls on these three props (1Q, 1st to 10 & 1st to 20) has gone 3-0 in each game (9-0 total).

 

[OWENS81]

Gonna be a nail biter on the 20!!!! Cmon Charlotte!!!!

 

[DZ]

Amazing how the Bulls suddenly go on a 9-0 run as soon as Felicio goes out. I might have to consider dropping the 1Q plays against them in certain situations...

 

[DZ]

Amazing though, considering Felicio had the Bulls 1st 6 pts and 8 pts total in the quarter. As soon as he comes back in, the live play will come on the Hornets...

 

[DZ]

Felicio back on the floor now and the Bulls promptly give up the lead. CHI was -7 with him on the floor and +8 with him off the floor, even stretching the lead to 9 at one point, until he checked in at 6:25 mark of the 2Q. Borrowed the following info from Dr. Bob:

Chicago has been outscored by 242 points in just 468 minutes this season (-24.8 points per 48 minutes) when Felicio has been on the court this season and he has started the last three games. The Bulls have been outscored by 59 points with Felicio on the court in those 3 starts (in just 71.4 minutes).

That. Is. Incredible.

 

[DZ]

For the record, in the three games Felicio has started (all coming since the all-star break), playing against the Bulls on these three props (1Q, 1st to 10 & 1st to 20) has gone 3-0 in each game (9-0 total).

Now 11-1...

1st to 10 4-0
1st to 20 4-0
1st Qtr 3-1

 

[DZ]

Love that Felicio is putting up some points in this game. He's 6-6 with 12 points and 1 broken ankle from a killer Kemba crossover. The scoring stats should help Hoiberg overlook his +/- and defensive ineptitude to keep him in the starting lineup for future games, which means more opportunities to play against him.

 

[DZ]

Bulls lineup same for today. Uncertain after Friday...

Bulls lineup same for today. Uncertain after Friday...

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/2...ulls-rotation-could-change-after-fridays-game

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hoiberg said 1 more game with same lineup and then a change for next block of 5.</p>— K.C. Johnson (@KCJHoop) <a href="https://twitter.com/KCJHoop/status/969280767888187392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is a real shame. Hopefully, Hoiberg will still find games to start him down the stretch, although we'll have to keep a close eye on the situation...





Also of note...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sport...t-bulls-fred-hoiberg-pace-20180301-story.html

Fred Hoiberg issued his challenge to the Bulls at the first practice after the All-Star break and revealed it to reporters two days later after the first post-break game.

Over the final 25 games, finish in the top five in pace.

Through four games ? all losses as new lineup combinations are tried and untested players used ? the Bulls rank sixth at 103.4 possessions per game. After a slow start, they rank 12th for the season at 100.2 possessions per game.

?The throw-aheads have helped,? said Hoiberg, referencing long, upcourt chest passes that are faster than dribbling.

?(With) that part, we?re doing as good a job as we?ve done all year. Kris Dunn and Cam (Payne) have both done an excellent job looking to get attacks early in possessions. What we need to do now is take care of the ball. We can?t just play fast and be reckless.?​

Looks like the Bulls pace of play is on the rise. Looking for opponent TT overs in certain situations might prove to be a profitable strategy. Opponent PPG since the break... 116, 122, 104 & 118. 1Q PPG seem to be headed in the opposite direction... 33, 31, 28, 26 -- but this seems to have more to do with the opponent than the way the Bulls are playing. Dallas ranks 25th in avg points per 1st Qtr and are worse on the road (24.4) so not an optimal spot tonight.

DAL is 27th in avg 1Q margin at -2.0 and their road margin avg is -3.1 in the 1Q. Probably wise to make the fade play against the Bulls a smaller one tonight.

 

[DZ]

CHI vs DAL

CHI vs DAL

Think I'll pass on the 1Q play tonight. Playing these smaller because Dallas' recent history with these props going back to mid-January has not been great. Upon further research, a 3rd qtr play looks pretty good as well.


MAVERICKS SCORE 1ST 10 PTS -110 2x
MAVERICKS SCORE 1ST 20 PTS -115 3x
DAL PK 3Q -115 2x

 

[DZ]

Now 11-1...

1st to 10 4-0
1st to 20 4-0
1st Qtr 3-1

14-1 now with Felicio starting. Money train...

Also of note, 3rd Qtrs are 5-0 now in the same span, which makes a ton of sense if he comes back out to start after the half.

 

[DZ]

Felicio is back starting again. Problem is, they're playing the Knicks tonight who are equally bad early. This is a game of who can tank harder. Pass.

 

[DZ]

I think this is a good fade opportunity tonight. I do have concerns about the way Denver has closed 1st quarters of late. It seems that the Harris injury may be affecting how they finish and affecting Malone's substitutions patterns, however they have shown a propensity to struggle in the 1st Quarter all season, especially on the road. Still, the Bulls are severely undermanned besides starting Felicio tonight. No Dunn, Markannen, LaVine and possibly Lopez out too, which would mean lots of minutes for Felicio. Will have to check on his status just before tip and I may have a full game bet on the Nuggets. Nuggets are also a strong 3Q team, although less so on the road, so that bet warrants some consideration.

NUGGETS SC 1ST 10 PTS (-155) 4x
NUGGETS SC 1ST 20 PTS (-180) 5x

 

[OWENS81]

Good stuff DZ ... always enjoy your posts ... keep up the good work.:0074

 

[DZ]

There we go. Denver made that harder than it needed to be. Now let's see how they close the quarter...

 

[DZ]

This fade has been so money. Today, I played it this way...


MIL SCORE 1ST 10 PTS (-125) 4x
MIL SCORE 1ST 20 PTS (-140) 5x
MIL -1.5 1Q (-115) 2x

 

[DZ]

Jeezus...Bucks look like they guard the paint without Giannis.

 

[DZ]

Late posting for today. Yesterday, Bucks were a complete disaster. First time that's happened since I started tracking this. Today, no Felicio starting and it's vs Detroit with a high line, so a definite pass.