Farmers Ins. @ San Diago
- Thread starter ormond80
- Start date
CH3 to win 50-1
Strictly a value bet, although he played very well last week. Charles is not a prolific winner, but he is not a virgin either. Tends to get long strings of birdies, and that's how you win in this league.
72 holes
Walker over Reed +125
I have to take this number, although I took Reed the last 2 weeks.
CH3 over Haas -115
I like Haas generally, I think he's a good guy. He tends to be a bad gamble though, at least for me. Charles is in the back nine of his career, and tries really hard to win money. He doesn't throw away shots, and knows that every stroke means bucks won or lost.
Strictly a value bet, although he played very well last week. Charles is not a prolific winner, but he is not a virgin either. Tends to get long strings of birdies, and that's how you win in this league.
72 holes
Walker over Reed +125
I have to take this number, although I took Reed the last 2 weeks.
CH3 over Haas -115
I like Haas generally, I think he's a good guy. He tends to be a bad gamble though, at least for me. Charles is in the back nine of his career, and tries really hard to win money. He doesn't throw away shots, and knows that every stroke means bucks won or lost.
Outrights
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 BRANDT SNEDEKER +1600
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 J B HOLMES +3320
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 CHARLES HOWELL III +5135
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 SI WOO KIM +8550
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 LUCAS GLOVER +10895
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 BRANDT SNEDEKER +1600
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 J B HOLMES +3320
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 CHARLES HOWELL III +5135
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 SI WOO KIM +8550
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2016 LUCAS GLOVER +10895
Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
- - My take on Mickelson last week was summed up by Johnny Miller?s observation on the 72nd hole that Phil?s game has looked really good all through his bag, starting with his driver. Gary Koch also noted several times that all week his new swing was producing a much more piercing ball flight, with none of the ?pop ups? he?s been prone to. Bones says he?s never seen Phil working harder, and Phil in his own words stated the swing has been on plane for quite a while, but he didn?t have the club face awareness down from hip high to hip high, but the awareness showed up last week and he was hitting little fades and little draws with his driver like he does with his irons. It also appeared to me he was standing over his short putts for a noticeably longer few moments, and I don?t know what that might have been about, but he was rolling them in smartly. IMO this week will not be a case of one step back after two steps forward, and I like this play as much or more than 40/1 last week.
Lucas Glover(110/1) e.w.
- - Torrey Pines is the venue in 2006 when I first took notice of Lucas and thought he demonstrated something languid and loping in his swing and demeanor that suggested to me he had what I have always referred to as ?a big boy game for big boy venues - and the majors.? I was right about that at least once at Bethpage. Ever since I?ve always fancied Glover at Torrey Pines (along the same lines but for different rerasons I always thought Phil would win at Augusta, and often been on board with Boo Weekley at Hilton Head, Stuart Appleby at Firestone, Geoff Ogilvy at Kapalua, Luke Donald at Riviera, Brandt Snedeker at Augusta, Charles Howell at Torrey Pines (even with skinny odds and so frequently a bridesmaid, rarely a bride), Ross Fisher at Wentworth, and some others which escape me) . . . As for last week, the take I posted on Lucas from lots of play late in calendar year 2015 was ?Glover's wedges seem worse than his putter at the moment, which is not an endorsement.? But last week I was pleasantly surprised by his steady production at a birdie fest alongside hacking amateurs, so maybe this week it all comes together.
Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
- -
Shane Lowry(80/1) e.w.
- - Nothing too recent in personal observations for me to draw on, but nothing too distant either, and I can see a fit . . . And FWIW his last outing at Nedbank seems bizarre to me, finishing 25th with a stat line on tour-tips of 8/2/26/25/6, so maybe he?s due a few breaks this week.
Marc Leishman(50/1) e.w.
- - Since my best golf insights have always been built on watching the golf and following the leaderboards, and I can now say I?ve been engaged in following the golf for four straight weeks, I have tried to stick to that approach exclusively in making my plays this week (and it will likely lead to at least one play in-running, like Lingmerth last week) . . . Nevertheless, this is a play I will speculate with, based on research and digging, rather than recent visual impressions and leaderboard tracking.
Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.
- - A confluence of liking what an awesome capper had to say about liking his chances here every year, my own brief observations last week seeming consistent, and attractive value with the odds
Jimmy Walker(30/1) e.w.
- - Since I missed out on getting any plays down in Qatar, I won't skimp on plays for this event if I have a liking. He has at least looked like he knows it's a Ryder Cup season, so maybe a value loser at this price.
Brandt Snedeker(16/1) e.w.
-- How can I not like what I've seen so far this year? I'm just not thrilled with the odds.
GL
- - My take on Mickelson last week was summed up by Johnny Miller?s observation on the 72nd hole that Phil?s game has looked really good all through his bag, starting with his driver. Gary Koch also noted several times that all week his new swing was producing a much more piercing ball flight, with none of the ?pop ups? he?s been prone to. Bones says he?s never seen Phil working harder, and Phil in his own words stated the swing has been on plane for quite a while, but he didn?t have the club face awareness down from hip high to hip high, but the awareness showed up last week and he was hitting little fades and little draws with his driver like he does with his irons. It also appeared to me he was standing over his short putts for a noticeably longer few moments, and I don?t know what that might have been about, but he was rolling them in smartly. IMO this week will not be a case of one step back after two steps forward, and I like this play as much or more than 40/1 last week.
Lucas Glover(110/1) e.w.
- - Torrey Pines is the venue in 2006 when I first took notice of Lucas and thought he demonstrated something languid and loping in his swing and demeanor that suggested to me he had what I have always referred to as ?a big boy game for big boy venues - and the majors.? I was right about that at least once at Bethpage. Ever since I?ve always fancied Glover at Torrey Pines (along the same lines but for different rerasons I always thought Phil would win at Augusta, and often been on board with Boo Weekley at Hilton Head, Stuart Appleby at Firestone, Geoff Ogilvy at Kapalua, Luke Donald at Riviera, Brandt Snedeker at Augusta, Charles Howell at Torrey Pines (even with skinny odds and so frequently a bridesmaid, rarely a bride), Ross Fisher at Wentworth, and some others which escape me) . . . As for last week, the take I posted on Lucas from lots of play late in calendar year 2015 was ?Glover's wedges seem worse than his putter at the moment, which is not an endorsement.? But last week I was pleasantly surprised by his steady production at a birdie fest alongside hacking amateurs, so maybe this week it all comes together.
Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
- -
Shane Lowry(80/1) e.w.
- - Nothing too recent in personal observations for me to draw on, but nothing too distant either, and I can see a fit . . . And FWIW his last outing at Nedbank seems bizarre to me, finishing 25th with a stat line on tour-tips of 8/2/26/25/6, so maybe he?s due a few breaks this week.
Marc Leishman(50/1) e.w.
- - Since my best golf insights have always been built on watching the golf and following the leaderboards, and I can now say I?ve been engaged in following the golf for four straight weeks, I have tried to stick to that approach exclusively in making my plays this week (and it will likely lead to at least one play in-running, like Lingmerth last week) . . . Nevertheless, this is a play I will speculate with, based on research and digging, rather than recent visual impressions and leaderboard tracking.
Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.
- - A confluence of liking what an awesome capper had to say about liking his chances here every year, my own brief observations last week seeming consistent, and attractive value with the odds
Jimmy Walker(30/1) e.w.
- - Since I missed out on getting any plays down in Qatar, I won't skimp on plays for this event if I have a liking. He has at least looked like he knows it's a Ryder Cup season, so maybe a value loser at this price.
Brandt Snedeker(16/1) e.w.
-- How can I not like what I've seen so far this year? I'm just not thrilled with the odds.
GL
Investing my winnings on Mickelson from last week:
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w. 145th Open Championship
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w. P.G.A.
Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w. The Masters
Phil Mickelson(40/1) e.w. U.S. Open
- - In 2004 Mickelson repeatedly noted that Troon suited him best on the Open rota because all the way around you can strategically play to one side of virtually every hole and avoid the real problems which lie on the other side; utilizing his peerless short game when missing a green, and ready shotmaking when missing a fairway, he was indelibly engaged in the three-way battle that separated from the rest of the field. And the record shows what can happen now that Lefty gets to tune up for the Open on a links course instead of the bogs at Loch Lomond . . . I would have definitely concluded that the Open offered the best value in the majors for Mickelson this year if it wasn?t for the fact such surprising odds are being offered at Baltusrol where he has won before and will be played when he will surely be highly focused on a crammed schedule of majors while building toward the Ryder Cup . . . Although the 6-time runner-up surely wants the U.S. Open the most, IMO I would have to easily rate Oakmont as the least suitable major venue for Phil this season.
GL
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w. 145th Open Championship
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w. P.G.A.
Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w. The Masters
Phil Mickelson(40/1) e.w. U.S. Open
- - In 2004 Mickelson repeatedly noted that Troon suited him best on the Open rota because all the way around you can strategically play to one side of virtually every hole and avoid the real problems which lie on the other side; utilizing his peerless short game when missing a green, and ready shotmaking when missing a fairway, he was indelibly engaged in the three-way battle that separated from the rest of the field. And the record shows what can happen now that Lefty gets to tune up for the Open on a links course instead of the bogs at Loch Lomond . . . I would have definitely concluded that the Open offered the best value in the majors for Mickelson this year if it wasn?t for the fact such surprising odds are being offered at Baltusrol where he has won before and will be played when he will surely be highly focused on a crammed schedule of majors while building toward the Ryder Cup . . . Although the 6-time runner-up surely wants the U.S. Open the most, IMO I would have to easily rate Oakmont as the least suitable major venue for Phil this season.
GL
Pre-tournament plays:
BACK 2pts
Chad Campbell 520 & lay 8pts @ 130
Backing a player to get into contention rather than win here. Last year, he was 5th-6th-3rd after each of the first three rounds before faltering in rd4. It was a similar story in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open where he was 5th-1st-3rd-8th after each of the four rounds and he had good form during the Fall season with two top-10 finishes.
John Senden 450 & lay 6pts @ 150
Senden is definitely a player to back to get into contention rather than finish the job. He had a good run of form in Australia in November-December, including 2nd in the UNIQLO Masters, and consistently gets himself into the top-20 at stages of a tournament and so available at much lower odds in-running.
Alex Cejka 550 & lay 6pts @ 180
Cejka did win the 2015 Puerto Rico Open, but he has since showed that was not a fluke with a particularly goof Fall season: a runners-up finish in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and 6th place finish in the RSM Classic. His record in this event isn't great, but he has never played as well on the PGA Tour until last year, so he can be backed to improve significantly here.
BACK 2pts
Chad Campbell 520 & lay 8pts @ 130
Backing a player to get into contention rather than win here. Last year, he was 5th-6th-3rd after each of the first three rounds before faltering in rd4. It was a similar story in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open where he was 5th-1st-3rd-8th after each of the four rounds and he had good form during the Fall season with two top-10 finishes.
John Senden 450 & lay 6pts @ 150
Senden is definitely a player to back to get into contention rather than finish the job. He had a good run of form in Australia in November-December, including 2nd in the UNIQLO Masters, and consistently gets himself into the top-20 at stages of a tournament and so available at much lower odds in-running.
Alex Cejka 550 & lay 6pts @ 180
Cejka did win the 2015 Puerto Rico Open, but he has since showed that was not a fluke with a particularly goof Fall season: a runners-up finish in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and 6th place finish in the RSM Classic. His record in this event isn't great, but he has never played as well on the PGA Tour until last year, so he can be backed to improve significantly here.
for round 2, playing:
Hadwin - 145 vs Ishikawa
an ugly round of 7 over par on the easier North Course yesterday doesn't bode well for Ryo's chances on the South Course today imo - solid week for Hadwin last so hopefully he can carry a little of that form into today's round but more of a play against Ishikawa than a play on Hadwin
and as always, good luck no matter which golfers you choose,
LA Burns
Hadwin - 145 vs Ishikawa
an ugly round of 7 over par on the easier North Course yesterday doesn't bode well for Ryo's chances on the South Course today imo - solid week for Hadwin last so hopefully he can carry a little of that form into today's round but more of a play against Ishikawa than a play on Hadwin
and as always, good luck no matter which golfers you choose,
LA Burns
Pre-rd3 play:
BACK 2pts
Rob Oppenheim 110
Just three shots back, these look good odds for a player who may have only played in five previous PGA Tour events, but won on the Web.com Tour last year.
BACK 2pts
Rob Oppenheim 110
Just three shots back, these look good odds for a player who may have only played in five previous PGA Tour events, but won on the Web.com Tour last year.
Saturday:
In-running:
Charles Howell(80/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Freddie Jacobson(35/1) e.w.
Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.
Matchups:
Thompson(+180) over Cauley/Burgoon
Horschel(-110) over Streelman
Jacobson(-110) over Brown
Howell(+125) over Hadwin/Vegas
- - Only the Thursday play was closely followed . . . I would often look at Jacobson as not a threat, but I like his chances for hanging tough on Saturday . . . Horschel is confident again, if nothing else . . . Howell gets a further look after draining a 40 foot putt to birdie the last two . . . And I'll take another flyer on Thompson.
GL
In-running:
Charles Howell(80/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Freddie Jacobson(35/1) e.w.
Michael Thompson(200/1) e.w.
Matchups:
Thompson(+180) over Cauley/Burgoon
Horschel(-110) over Streelman
Jacobson(-110) over Brown
Howell(+125) over Hadwin/Vegas
- - Only the Thursday play was closely followed . . . I would often look at Jacobson as not a threat, but I like his chances for hanging tough on Saturday . . . Horschel is confident again, if nothing else . . . Howell gets a further look after draining a 40 foot putt to birdie the last two . . . And I'll take another flyer on Thompson.
GL
