Round 1 play (2pts):
Camilo Villegas to beat Gary Woodland +110 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Boyle Sports, Carib and WSEX]
The line has moved 15 cents overnight and now comes into my 'value' category. First, they are playing the North course today which will favour Villegas over Woodland as much as tomorrow's South course will favour them the other way around. The North course's very tight fairways meant that it was the toughest course for driving accuracy on Tour last year (38.9 percent). Couple that with their current driving accuracy rankings on Tour - Villegas 17th, Woodland 113th - and it is clear that the big-hitting Woodland should find it harder to find any advantage on the North course. Second, Villegas comes into this event in great form - he finished the 2011 PGA Tour season with four top-10 finishes in last five events - and he opened with a 63 to lead the Humana Challenge on day one last week; Woodland struggled to finish 24th of 27 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions when widely-tipped for that event and hasn't played since. And finally, there is their histories in this event: whereas Woodland has finished mdf and 58th in his two previous attempts and failed to break 70 on the North course, Villegas has finished 13th, 9th (U.S. Open), 3rd, and 44th in the last four years, recording 69-63-69 on the North course. In fact, he has started on the North course in each of his last three starts in this event and has ended day one in 13th, 1st and 22nd place. I don't see how he can be plus-odds on this course.
