Farmers Insurance Open
- Thread starter UGA12
- Start date
A different golf forum was lamenting the lack of discussion on the forum, so I thought I would contribute some this week with an uncharacteristic early post.
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.
- - His name came up on a forum for the Humana (maybe it was this forum), and I immediately thought there is a name to watch for early this season, after a water accident in Hawaii derailed his early season in 2012. While I didn?t agree the pro-am birdie fest in Palm Springs was a very good fit, I was following his progress all week on the leader board, and after a slow start, I was very satisfied with what I was tracking . . . I think of Glover as a much better fit on what I call a ?big boy? venue that is of major championship caliber, where any weakness in your game will eventually find you out, which is mainly why I was on him at the the ?big boy? venue of Bethpage Black, and sure enough he since popped up as a surprise winner at Charlotte. Also worth noting, I began forming my initially favorable impressions about Lucas while he was finishing 4th at Torrey Pines in 2006, and looking back, sure enough he has 3 Top Ten finishes there. Horses for courses and all that going for me here.
Kyle Stanley(125/1) e.w.
- - My only real strike last year was hitting on Stanley twice in the same event, 50/1 at the start in Phoenix, and again at 20/1 on Saturday. So now he is back at Torrey Pines where he caught everyone?s fancy, and I?ll be giving him another chance to carry my cash.
David Howell(80/1) e.w. in Qatar
- - I was pumped last week when Howler took my 200/1 e.w. cash all the way to the lead on Sunday, and I?ll be back on board this week . . . A good early season reminder is that you can sometimes find a rich source of ANGLES and INFORMATION by going back and looking at various forum discussions from prior years. In doing so at another forum, I came across this nugget: "David Howell - 0.5 top 10 18/1 . . . David Howell is now based in Dubai in the winter and will be well acclimatised. Admittedly he is not the force he was but he has a great long term record in Qatar with five top ten finishes from twelve starts including last year when 5th. His five year exemption for winning the PGA Championship runs out this year so he has to improve his golf. Although he has gotten off to a poor start this year he still has the ability to bounce back with a top ten finish. He may have some emotional thoughts about Qatar this week as I believe it may have been one of the last events his Mum saw him play before she sadly died last year." Of course, he proceeded to miss the cut last year.
I?m sure the rest of my plays will be finalized (how about Ross Fisher, omg, but for a number of reasons I always like to catch a player too early rather than too late, if I can?t get it just right) and get posted about 5 to 50 minutes before the outright markets are suspended at the off on Thursday.
GL
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.
- - His name came up on a forum for the Humana (maybe it was this forum), and I immediately thought there is a name to watch for early this season, after a water accident in Hawaii derailed his early season in 2012. While I didn?t agree the pro-am birdie fest in Palm Springs was a very good fit, I was following his progress all week on the leader board, and after a slow start, I was very satisfied with what I was tracking . . . I think of Glover as a much better fit on what I call a ?big boy? venue that is of major championship caliber, where any weakness in your game will eventually find you out, which is mainly why I was on him at the the ?big boy? venue of Bethpage Black, and sure enough he since popped up as a surprise winner at Charlotte. Also worth noting, I began forming my initially favorable impressions about Lucas while he was finishing 4th at Torrey Pines in 2006, and looking back, sure enough he has 3 Top Ten finishes there. Horses for courses and all that going for me here.
Kyle Stanley(125/1) e.w.
- - My only real strike last year was hitting on Stanley twice in the same event, 50/1 at the start in Phoenix, and again at 20/1 on Saturday. So now he is back at Torrey Pines where he caught everyone?s fancy, and I?ll be giving him another chance to carry my cash.
David Howell(80/1) e.w. in Qatar
- - I was pumped last week when Howler took my 200/1 e.w. cash all the way to the lead on Sunday, and I?ll be back on board this week . . . A good early season reminder is that you can sometimes find a rich source of ANGLES and INFORMATION by going back and looking at various forum discussions from prior years. In doing so at another forum, I came across this nugget: "David Howell - 0.5 top 10 18/1 . . . David Howell is now based in Dubai in the winter and will be well acclimatised. Admittedly he is not the force he was but he has a great long term record in Qatar with five top ten finishes from twelve starts including last year when 5th. His five year exemption for winning the PGA Championship runs out this year so he has to improve his golf. Although he has gotten off to a poor start this year he still has the ability to bounce back with a top ten finish. He may have some emotional thoughts about Qatar this week as I believe it may have been one of the last events his Mum saw him play before she sadly died last year." Of course, he proceeded to miss the cut last year.
I?m sure the rest of my plays will be finalized (how about Ross Fisher, omg, but for a number of reasons I always like to catch a player too early rather than too late, if I can?t get it just right) and get posted about 5 to 50 minutes before the outright markets are suspended at the off on Thursday.
. . .discovered under the grandstand, sometime after Stanley fell apart at the conclusion of yesterday's Farmers Insurance Open . . .
Torrey Pines Cut Kyle Stanley One Of Those Oversized Checks Before His Epic Collapse At No. 18
GL
LIA's post about Glover got me to remembering backing him on his first win, in 2005. I had bet Glover a half dozen times previous, thinking it was inevitable his first PGA win was going to be soon. Turned out to be right. Lucas career is quite a bit short of what I thought it would be. Even winning a US Open and one other, didn't push him into star player category. I believe Lucas is a true journeyman, able to make a great living playing golf, and possible winning every once in a while. Superstar? No. Star? No. Threat to win every week? No. Household name? No. All this leads me into this weeks choice to win.
Tringale to win 150-1 Sia
Here's a guy who very quietly established himself as an average player. What the hell? Is he ever going to win? Yeah, I think one or two. Maybe this week. He played decent last week and he had a top 5 on this course last year.
This is Phil's home course and Tiger just kicks his ass on it. That has to be maddening. It's always interesting to watch though.
Tringale to win 150-1 Sia
Here's a guy who very quietly established himself as an average player. What the hell? Is he ever going to win? Yeah, I think one or two. Maybe this week. He played decent last week and he had a top 5 on this course last year.
This is Phil's home course and Tiger just kicks his ass on it. That has to be maddening. It's always interesting to watch though.
Tournament Matchups:
Snedeker +135 over Tiger
Scott Piercy -116 over Robert Garrigus
Martin Laird +104 over Ross Fisher
To Win:
Marc Leishman 61-1.
Snedeker +135 over Tiger
Scott Piercy -116 over Robert Garrigus
Martin Laird +104 over Ross Fisher
To Win:
Marc Leishman 61-1.
72 holes
Snedeker over Mick -125
This is not the bet I thought it was. I thought it was against Rollins. I don't know how I messed that up. I was also looking at Piercy over Rollins. That must have been what happened.
I like this match up too though. The price is a little high although I love Sned to beat Phil.
Snedeker over Mick -125
This is not the bet I thought it was. I thought it was against Rollins. I don't know how I messed that up. I was also looking at Piercy over Rollins. That must have been what happened.
I like this match up too though. The price is a little high although I love Sned to beat Phil.
Another high flyer week for me....
Colsaerts 40-1 win, 20-1 place, 10-1 show
Huh 50-1 win, 25-1 place 12 1/2 show
Cauley 60-1 win, 30-1 place, 15-1 show
Stanley 80-1 win, 40-1 place, 20-1 show
As always, good luck to all!
Colsaerts 40-1 win, 20-1 place, 10-1 show
Huh 50-1 win, 25-1 place 12 1/2 show
Cauley 60-1 win, 30-1 place, 15-1 show
Stanley 80-1 win, 40-1 place, 20-1 show
As always, good luck to all!
72 holes
Piercy over Garrigus -120
Piercy plays well here and everywhere, Garrigus cut the last four at Torrey.
Piercy over Garrigus -120
Piercy plays well here and everywhere, Garrigus cut the last four at Torrey.
Outrights
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN RICKIE FOWLER +2000
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN SCOTT PIERCY +3300
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BILL HAAS +4000
1st Round Match Up
B HAAS (RND 1) -115 (H MAHAN (RND 1) vrs B HAAS (RND 1))
4 Round Match Up
S PIERCY -125 (R GARRIGUS vrs S PIERCY)
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN RICKIE FOWLER +2000
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN SCOTT PIERCY +3300
ODDS TO WIN FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN BILL HAAS +4000
1st Round Match Up
B HAAS (RND 1) -115 (H MAHAN (RND 1) vrs B HAAS (RND 1))
4 Round Match Up
S PIERCY -125 (R GARRIGUS vrs S PIERCY)
Outright (.1 unit)
Bradley (24/1)
Colsaerts (60/1)
Cink (190/1)
Tournament Matchups (1 unit)
Mahan (+155) ov Van Pelt
Piercy (-120) ov Garrigus
Rollins (+115) ov Haas
Colsaerts (Ev) ov Day
Leishman (-110) ov Cauley
Bradley (24/1)
Colsaerts (60/1)
Cink (190/1)
Tournament Matchups (1 unit)
Mahan (+155) ov Van Pelt
Piercy (-120) ov Garrigus
Rollins (+115) ov Haas
Colsaerts (Ev) ov Day
Leishman (-110) ov Cauley
Round 1 plays (2pts):
Vijay Singh to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +100 @ Paddy Power
A lot is expected of the 'Belgian Bomber' this year and I am sure that he will be in contention for several PGA Tour titles this year, but it is still a big ask for him to perform on his first start as a PGA Tour member. He did finish 9th of 32 in the Volvo Golf Champions in South Africa earlier this month, but I think the value will lie in opposing him for a while until the hype dies down, particularly as he is playing on courses for the first time. That is certainly not the case with the veteran Singh, who, despite being eligible for the Champions Tour next month, still finished in the top-20 in his previous start this season (the Sony Open in Hawaii) and has finished in the top-20 in this event in both of the last two years.
Stewart Cink to beat Jonas Blixt +110 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [available generally]
Cink's troubles since his tried to change his golf swing - he didn't record a single top-10 finish between May 2011 and the end of last season - are well-documented, but a change in swing philosophy this season has already earned him rewards. He recorded that long-awaited top-10 finish last week and could have been set for a much higher finish had he not found water on the last two holes. Was it confidence, rustiness or the effect of pressure of his re-formulated swing? Either way, it should not re-occur in the first round and he should be backed at these odds to beat Blixt whom, despite Cink's difficulties last season, he beat in 11 of 17 1st and 2nd rounds last year. With Cink's record of four top-15 finishes in his last five visits to Torrey Pines, he may well continue his revival this week.
Vijay Singh to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +100 @ Paddy Power
A lot is expected of the 'Belgian Bomber' this year and I am sure that he will be in contention for several PGA Tour titles this year, but it is still a big ask for him to perform on his first start as a PGA Tour member. He did finish 9th of 32 in the Volvo Golf Champions in South Africa earlier this month, but I think the value will lie in opposing him for a while until the hype dies down, particularly as he is playing on courses for the first time. That is certainly not the case with the veteran Singh, who, despite being eligible for the Champions Tour next month, still finished in the top-20 in his previous start this season (the Sony Open in Hawaii) and has finished in the top-20 in this event in both of the last two years.
Stewart Cink to beat Jonas Blixt +110 @ 5Dimes and WSEX [available generally]
Cink's troubles since his tried to change his golf swing - he didn't record a single top-10 finish between May 2011 and the end of last season - are well-documented, but a change in swing philosophy this season has already earned him rewards. He recorded that long-awaited top-10 finish last week and could have been set for a much higher finish had he not found water on the last two holes. Was it confidence, rustiness or the effect of pressure of his re-formulated swing? Either way, it should not re-occur in the first round and he should be backed at these odds to beat Blixt whom, despite Cink's difficulties last season, he beat in 11 of 17 1st and 2nd rounds last year. With Cink's record of four top-15 finishes in his last five visits to Torrey Pines, he may well continue his revival this week.
looking to get back into the positive with this one:
rickie fowler +140 vs tiger woods
rickie has been riding bmx's since the hyundai while tiger's been busy traveling the world, making commercials and missing cuts - of course i find it a bit hard to pull the trigger on a play fading the King of Torrey Pines, but Fowler has had a nice little run at TP for the past few years and apparently the south course is one of his faves - from pgatourdotcom:
"For me, I list it as one of my favorite courses, the South Course, for sure, and being able to play the North Course is definitely a great complement for the two to be here and be part of one event," said Fowler, who now wears the Farmers logo on the right side of his cap in a sponsorship deal announced Wednesday.
"... It's got the length. I like the small greens. I grew up on Poa annua greens, and some guys don't like Poa annua. I do. Obviously, there are some decent views. Some of the better views in golf, usually, you get great weather. ... But it's just a great piece of property, being close to home, lot of friends and family, so it's a special place for me."
also think Rickie looking to erase the memories of his final round 84 playing alongside Tiger at the Memorial last year - and simply not sure Tiger will be quite revved up just yet
as always, good luck no matter which golfers you choose
LA Burns
rickie fowler +140 vs tiger woods
rickie has been riding bmx's since the hyundai while tiger's been busy traveling the world, making commercials and missing cuts - of course i find it a bit hard to pull the trigger on a play fading the King of Torrey Pines, but Fowler has had a nice little run at TP for the past few years and apparently the south course is one of his faves - from pgatourdotcom:
"For me, I list it as one of my favorite courses, the South Course, for sure, and being able to play the North Course is definitely a great complement for the two to be here and be part of one event," said Fowler, who now wears the Farmers logo on the right side of his cap in a sponsorship deal announced Wednesday.
"... It's got the length. I like the small greens. I grew up on Poa annua greens, and some guys don't like Poa annua. I do. Obviously, there are some decent views. Some of the better views in golf, usually, you get great weather. ... But it's just a great piece of property, being close to home, lot of friends and family, so it's a special place for me."
also think Rickie looking to erase the memories of his final round 84 playing alongside Tiger at the Memorial last year - and simply not sure Tiger will be quite revved up just yet
as always, good luck no matter which golfers you choose
LA Burns
Tiger Woods once said Lucas Glover was the best ball striker on the Presidents Cup team!
That's enough for me.
Riding my two weekly picks once more.
One of them will win...soon!
Glover 375/1
Streb 445/1
That's enough for me.
Riding my two weekly picks once more.
One of them will win...soon!
Glover 375/1
Streb 445/1
wow I am late glad they have not tee'd off yet
match ups
Barnes over Yang -105 945 units
Colsaerts over Day -115 345 units
Snedeker over Woods +130 200 units
Mahan over Van Pelt plus 2.5 -110 1100 units
Howell over Bradley even 200 units
Outrights
Leishman 50 units 125-1
Garrigus 50 units 50-1
Watney 50 units 20-1
Chalmers 10 units 285-1
match ups
Barnes over Yang -105 945 units
Colsaerts over Day -115 345 units
Snedeker over Woods +130 200 units
Mahan over Van Pelt plus 2.5 -110 1100 units
Howell over Bradley even 200 units
Outrights
Leishman 50 units 125-1
Garrigus 50 units 50-1
Watney 50 units 20-1
Chalmers 10 units 285-1
Adding:
Outrights:
Scott Piercy 41-1
Bill Haas 56-1
Jason Kokrak 238-1
1st round:
Bill Haas -109 over Hunter Mahan
Outrights:
Scott Piercy 41-1
Bill Haas 56-1
Jason Kokrak 238-1
1st round:
Bill Haas -109 over Hunter Mahan
Outrights:
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.
- -
Kyle Stanley(125/1) e.w.
- -
Dustin Johnson(14/1) e.w.
- - His work on his scoring clubs was in full evidence at Kapalua, and is a perfect compliment to his prior strengths in these environs.
Rickie Fowler(22/1) e.w.
- - Great ANGLES, lousy price.
http://www.pgatour.com/tourreport/2013/01/23/fowler-looks-forward-to-tiger-pairing.html
John Rollins(50/1) e.w.
- - The choice over Leishman and Singh.
John Daly(250/1) e.w.
- - This year's Kyle Stanley?
Michael Thompson(125/1) e.w.
- - Adding one more play.
Matchups:
Fowler(+135) over Woods (1st Round)
GL
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.
- -
Kyle Stanley(125/1) e.w.
- -
Dustin Johnson(14/1) e.w.
- - His work on his scoring clubs was in full evidence at Kapalua, and is a perfect compliment to his prior strengths in these environs.
Rickie Fowler(22/1) e.w.
- - Great ANGLES, lousy price.
http://www.pgatour.com/tourreport/2013/01/23/fowler-looks-forward-to-tiger-pairing.html
John Rollins(50/1) e.w.
- - The choice over Leishman and Singh.
John Daly(250/1) e.w.
- - This year's Kyle Stanley?
Michael Thompson(125/1) e.w.
- - Adding one more play.
Matchups:
Fowler(+135) over Woods (1st Round)
GL
