Fast Forward-Michigan
- Thread starter SpinToWinJim
- Start date
Thks. I am alittle behind this week. But this is nice to have. As you know all thoughts are welcome here. There are many more reading your thoughts then will say it. M J, and most of us call them (or our selfs) lurkers. Seems many of us started that way we watch and look for a while then jump in.
Michigan is one of those speed tracks. So those who like that will do well. To your top five I would add Park 1, Stewart 20, and Marlin 10. Skinner would not surprise me. However he seems to find bad luck, a lot more then a year ago. Lets have a good safe race.
Had one of my senior moments. See you have 10 up already. Mr. Benson. I mean Marlin 40.
I have these matches,
Marlin O Mayfield
B Labonte O Rudd.
[This message has been edited by djv (edited 06-09-2001).]
Michigan is one of those speed tracks. So those who like that will do well. To your top five I would add Park 1, Stewart 20, and Marlin 10. Skinner would not surprise me. However he seems to find bad luck, a lot more then a year ago. Lets have a good safe race.
Had one of my senior moments. See you have 10 up already. Mr. Benson. I mean Marlin 40.
I have these matches,
Marlin O Mayfield
B Labonte O Rudd.
[This message has been edited by djv (edited 06-09-2001).]
Two matches above is all I like at this point. Nothing looks real good. Maybe there will be more tomorrow.
Thanks for posting your column Jim. Looks like I started something good!
Rather see you post it than me even though I read that you gave me and others permission to cut and past your work.
Thanks
AzRusty
Rather see you post it than me even though I read that you gave me and others permission to cut and past your work.
Thanks
AzRusty
Went with the following to win:
Benson # 10 25/1
Marlin # 40 16/1
Martin # 6 16/1
Mayfield # 12 20/1
Pureley because I like the odds! Small wagers one unit on each.
AzRusty
Good Luck
Benson # 10 25/1
Marlin # 40 16/1
Martin # 6 16/1
Mayfield # 12 20/1
Pureley because I like the odds! Small wagers one unit on each.
AzRusty
Good Luck
Az i never gOt a chance to do a thing. My mom was not feeling well so spent 3 to 4 hours at walk clinic with here. So Im just going to take a nap. Chit.
No Bacon....
Just a lot of grease. The faint lingering smell of burning rubber and the memory of smoke and twisting metal.
Wouldn't change a thing though. I had a pretty good shot till the last 10 laps and the last yellow flag!
Chit Chit Chit
All that money up in smoke! Not that much really.. thank GOD.
Thanks for your input Jim. Hope your mom is feeling better djv.
Did you get the two files that I sent you, djv? Extreme sports and the saguaro cactus picture? Let me know. I want you to see them. I am pretty sure that Anders got both files.
AzRusty
Just a lot of grease. The faint lingering smell of burning rubber and the memory of smoke and twisting metal.
Wouldn't change a thing though. I had a pretty good shot till the last 10 laps and the last yellow flag!
Chit Chit Chit
All that money up in smoke! Not that much really.. thank GOD.
Thanks for your input Jim. Hope your mom is feeling better djv.
Did you get the two files that I sent you, djv? Extreme sports and the saguaro cactus picture? Let me know. I want you to see them. I am pretty sure that Anders got both files.
AzRusty
How I made my picks for the race in case Jim Fitzgerald is interested or anyone else. I didn't spend much time doing this. For some reason had several things going on and was just not in the mood to do some heavy research. Uh.... actually I read Jim's article then went to the Olympic site and checked the odds against what he listed as good picks. I have inserted Olypmic's odds next to each pick except Jarrett's which I didn't see listed for some reason.
88-Dale Jarrett-Jarrett got his first win at this track, and has, I believe, three wins here total.
24- 4/1 Jeff Gordon-Gordon is no stranger to winning at Michigan either, and you can bet they will be gunning to prove that last week was no fluke, and they are back, big-time.
20- 10/1 Tony Stewart-Won here last year, and has 6 top tens in his last 7 races.
2- 10/1 Rusty Wallace-Also won here last year, as well as multiple wins in previous years. Don?t forget that Rusty also won California earlier this year, and the two Penske-owned tracks are very similar.
10- 15/1 Johnny Benson-I can feel it. It is coming this week.
Shot In The Dark Pick:
28- 15/2 Ricky Rudd-Won here before, runs very well on these tracks.
Others To Watch:
40- 16/1 Sterling Marlin
12- 20/1 Jeremy Mayfield
6- 16/1 Mark Martin
18-Bobby Labonte Hmmm.. I overlooked this one! It printed on the next page and I just missed it. Duh. Don't know what his odds to win were. And ...doesn't matter now, does it?
In reviewing possible winners you have to consider not just who has the greatest chance of winning but also the greatest value of return for the money invested. Often you would want to throw out the clear favorite even if he is the probably winner because there is just no value in it!
Based on what I am saying I threw out Gordon, Stewart, Rusty Wallace (even though he made me money in California.. yeah.. baby! and thanks again Jim), and Ricky Rudd. A return of on 15/2 just wasn't worth it even though he almost won the race.
I only wanted to place a maximum of three or four wagers. If you bet on everybody that you think MIGHT win you will have the winner but still go in the hole. So I picked as best value bets Benson, Marlin, Martin and Mayfield.
Well....those that watched the race know that Mayfield really never showed much promise. BUT each of the other three were in the top six places for multiple laps. Martin, Marlin or Benson could easily have won. And in the last 30 laps Marlin and Benson were strong contenders.
I thought I had a winner until that last snafu with the caution and ensuing yellow flag at 10 laps remaining. Marlin finished 3rd behind Rudd and Gordon. In reviewing the race results I see that Mayfield finsihed 4th.. how'd I miss that? LOL
Mayfield at 25/1 offered exceptional value in the contenders. But .... close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades!
Anyway...that was my logic.
Yep, Jim, the winner was right there near the top of your list. I just thought it highly improbable that Jeff Gordon would win two weeks in a row. Also improbable that the pole sitter would win.
Good luck to us all next time and congratulations to all the winners!
AzRusty
88-Dale Jarrett-Jarrett got his first win at this track, and has, I believe, three wins here total.
24- 4/1 Jeff Gordon-Gordon is no stranger to winning at Michigan either, and you can bet they will be gunning to prove that last week was no fluke, and they are back, big-time.
20- 10/1 Tony Stewart-Won here last year, and has 6 top tens in his last 7 races.
2- 10/1 Rusty Wallace-Also won here last year, as well as multiple wins in previous years. Don?t forget that Rusty also won California earlier this year, and the two Penske-owned tracks are very similar.
10- 15/1 Johnny Benson-I can feel it. It is coming this week.
Shot In The Dark Pick:
28- 15/2 Ricky Rudd-Won here before, runs very well on these tracks.
Others To Watch:
40- 16/1 Sterling Marlin
12- 20/1 Jeremy Mayfield
6- 16/1 Mark Martin
18-Bobby Labonte Hmmm.. I overlooked this one! It printed on the next page and I just missed it. Duh. Don't know what his odds to win were. And ...doesn't matter now, does it?
In reviewing possible winners you have to consider not just who has the greatest chance of winning but also the greatest value of return for the money invested. Often you would want to throw out the clear favorite even if he is the probably winner because there is just no value in it!
Based on what I am saying I threw out Gordon, Stewart, Rusty Wallace (even though he made me money in California.. yeah.. baby! and thanks again Jim), and Ricky Rudd. A return of on 15/2 just wasn't worth it even though he almost won the race.
I only wanted to place a maximum of three or four wagers. If you bet on everybody that you think MIGHT win you will have the winner but still go in the hole. So I picked as best value bets Benson, Marlin, Martin and Mayfield.
Well....those that watched the race know that Mayfield really never showed much promise. BUT each of the other three were in the top six places for multiple laps. Martin, Marlin or Benson could easily have won. And in the last 30 laps Marlin and Benson were strong contenders.
I thought I had a winner until that last snafu with the caution and ensuing yellow flag at 10 laps remaining. Marlin finished 3rd behind Rudd and Gordon. In reviewing the race results I see that Mayfield finsihed 4th.. how'd I miss that? LOL
Mayfield at 25/1 offered exceptional value in the contenders. But .... close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades!
Anyway...that was my logic.
Yep, Jim, the winner was right there near the top of your list. I just thought it highly improbable that Jeff Gordon would win two weeks in a row. Also improbable that the pole sitter would win.
Good luck to us all next time and congratulations to all the winners!
AzRusty
Glad you got em! I've been coming home from work so tired lately that I just have been forgetting to check out my e-mail.
