Favorites are on fire

[GM]

Strange day today...

Favorites go 9-2-1 (plus 1 Pick 'Em game, Car/TB). Both dog winners were with the spread only (Jets, Houston). Every single favorite won their game outright. I can't recall ever seeing a week where not a single underdog won a game. Of course there is still one game to go.

Favorites are now on a 34-18-2 run over the last 4 weeks (65.4%). Home favs are 25-13-1 over the same span (65.8%); Road favs have gone 9-5-1 (64.3%).

 

[Stag]

looks like now is the time to play the doggies...as things in NFL have a way of balancing out
can't ever recall a weekend like this...no dog wins outright!

 

[Stag]

furthermore.......if you teased all faves by 6.5 points.............you would have gone unbeaten

 

[GM]

Even more amazing was that this happened on a weekend with 9 home underdogs.

This week is very similar to Week 11 of last year. Eight home dogs managed to go 0-7-1 ATS that week. Faves went 12-3 that week. And there was only one outright dog winner.

 

[baby johnson]

what happened the following wek

 

[GM]

Week 12 last year:

Favs outcovered dogs 8-7, with 1 Pick 'Em
Home favs 5-5; Road favs 3-2
7 Overs, 9 Unders, 45.1 PPG

In short, nothing too spectacular. Only thing that is slightly unusual is that Unders prevailed 9-7 despite a rather high PPG.

(I only mention the O/U's and PPG because this week and last year's Week 11 were also similar in that both were quite a bit lower-scoring than the season average. Both today and LY Wk 11 were in the 38 PPG range. Last year it spiked up to 45.1 the following week).

Week 12 last year also featured some very large favorites (8 different teams favored by 6 pts or more). It looks like this pattern will also repeat this year. Already on the board I see 6 teams favored by 6 or more, and that's without a line on Hou @ Indy (which should be in the 20-point range), and Clev @ Pitt (which will also probably exceed 6).

I guess the question now is what to do with this info.

Here is last year's Week 12:

?Indianapolis 9? 53? DETROIT
?DALLAS 3 36 Chicago
?NEW ENGLAND 7 34? Baltimore
?Philadelphia 7 37 NY GIANTS
PITTSBURGH 10 35? ?Washington
?CINCINNATI 6 38 Cleveland OV
?MINNESOTA 5? 46? Jacksonville
Tampa Bay 2? 39 ?CAROLINA
KANSAS CITY 3 52 ?San Diego OV
Tennessee 1 43 ?HOUSTON OV
ATLANTA 9 48 ?New Orleans
?NY Jets 3? 36? ARIZONA
SEATTLE 4 39 ?Buffalo OV
SAN FRANCISCO Pk 37? ?Miami OV
DENVER 11? 41? ?Oakland OV
?GREEN BAY 6? 51 St Louis OV

? Won the game and covered the spread
? Covered the spread, but did not win outright
OV Game went Over the posted total

 

[GM]

And it continues. Favorites go 8-5 today.... An amazing 20 games over .500 in just the past 5 weeks (43-23)... 78-59 for the season. This has got to turn....soon!!

 

[Blackman]

And it continues. Favorites go 8-5 today.... An amazing 20 games over .500 in just the past 5 weeks (43-23)... 78-59 for the season. This has got to turn....soon!!

I think Vegas is trying to buck these numbers -- we saw it today with the Bears and Colts lines. Personally I thought both lines were very high, but in turn I didn't have the stones to back the Niners or Texans either. I know the Colts offense is potent but a line of 18 is rare in the NFL, and the 27th ranked offense in the NFL laying almost two tds is just as crazy. I'm interested to see if they keep pumping us with these double digit favorites, I think I'm going to have to grow a sack and make these fades, regardless of how poor the opponent is.

 

[GM]

Well the lines are pretty big for this coming week. Four double-digit favorites on the board already, with St Louis being a 5th at one of my books. 12 of 16 lines are up and in every game but one the fav is laying 3? points or more. Geez, we've got teams like St Louis and New England laying double-digits. Not like either of these clubs is a powerhouse anymore.

Just seems to me this year there are about 8 teams that are really really bad, worse in average talent than your weakest 8 would normally be...and then there's a pretty big gap. These pigs aren't covering either (til this week when GB, Hou and SF all did).

I think the dogs start to bark this week. If fav's go better than .500 with all these big numbers I'll be very surprised. By the end of the season fav/dog numbers will probably end up very close to the .500 mark overall.

 

[Blackman]

You bring up a good point, there are some really bad teams this year.

Honestly the more I see from the Jets I don't think I'd play them if they were +21 instead of +12. Not saying I love the Broncos laying double digits either, but the Jets offense is so bad they might not sniff the end zone for a while.

The parody we have become used to is fading, and now there seems to be a real split between the halves and halve nots. Could be the reason for this.

Interesting subject and want to see if this continues.

 

[Statman02]

for the second week in a row only 2 teams out of the 26 that played today failed to cover a 13 point teaser ( Balt and NYJ ).......I am considering quitting trying to handicap and put all my money into 13 point teasers.......I continue to watch all my square buddies get fat on favorites while the only thing I can hit is 13 point teasers.......man those things are GOLD...........oh and Green Bay was a nice big doggie that won outright (my only win today besides the Cleve/Pitt over)

 

[Padre]

i would think that u meant that 2 of the 13 underdogs didny cover the 13 plus points, nyj and balt. b/c u have atl also that didnt get it done?

 

[Statman02]

right.......my mistake.......thanks for catching it........might save me some money..........but that is the only 3 out of 26.........all favs but Atl covered 13 pointers......even the (ugh) Giants.....that is one I had

 

[Anders]

Good thread guys ....
Been a tough season for far for us contrarains, that for should...
Statistically u could argue that there's no reason things will change next week, even if the run on faves should revert back to the mean in the long term... maybe this yr is just an anomaly... cert will be some pressure on the linemakers tho, as while some of us are finding it hard, they must be taking a hammering, and as mentioned here, must be looking v closely at adjusting lines that may eventually give us some edge with the dogs...
Again, good discussion, cheers ...