Favs vs. Dogs

[BobbyBlueChip]

Why is it that people perceive that betting dogs means that it is a sharp play and betting favorites mean that the play is for squares?

I?m not a handicapper that keeps a database, but it seems to me that when you look at the numbers that the favorites cover at almost exactly the same rate that the dogs do over the course of a season plus/minus 2 percentage points (not always in the dogs favor) even when you factor in home/away. I don?t consider myself sharp but, I prefer to play dogs for the mere fact that the team that I am wagering on has the same goals as I do almost always. There?s nothing worse than a QB kneel.

Just wondering everyone?s opinion, mostly the people that have disdain for favorites (Volfan, KC Wolf, Phoenix566 (Another question? Where has the godfather of MOJO gone?) )

 

[Bluemound Freak]

Who is the Godfather of MOJO?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Sorry to post such a confusing question. The Godfather of MOJO would be Phoenix566 - I thought he was the first to figure out how to post pictures on Jack's old format before Monk turned it into an artform on Jack's easier to use format) The last I remember him posting was on the "Who can post the hottest babe thread?"

Haven't seen him post since. He always played dogs last season

 

[fletcher]

not wanting to sound rude but inless you know groups or real pro's that do this and make a living don't fool yourself by thinking they play the dogs,ask nick douglas he was out here and saw for 3 days dog players 50- 100 $+150 or saw 70-80 people bet like this dogs then your runners come in 2000 each on 3 favs and 1 dog,think what you want the only time a group or a big money guy is playing a dog is if the except it to win not because it looks like good value. inless you are in the circle don't act like you know what you are talking about in baseball handicapping,thats what you hear not what is the truth,you have a mix of almost 3-1 and totals. like i said not wanting to sound rude but i am sure not many people know mant pro's or groups,some might but the vast doesnot.

and don't want to here no pro's play in vegas again another internet mith,lots of them in vegas.

like i said just ask nick d he got drilled by going against a few of them looking at that big value he can tell you. say what you want value is a winning day bottom line if you pay the bills this way not well +190 would be a nice payoff if it hits. baseball you have the 33.3% rule a team for the most part will win 33.3% of games,will lose 33.3% of games and its what they do with the other33.3% which will make or break you. and let you know if they are worth it or not to play.

little off 6-5 way off there is a big reason for games i play and i am quite sure of this i know the game of baseball much better then you,don't remember coaching or playing against you for 14+ years past hs ball.

 

[Bama6895]

That is a very interesting question. I have wondered the same thing also. A good bet is not the underdog, a good bet is not the favorite, a good bet is one that wins.

I think that if you do the work and it comes out that you like all favs or all dogs, so what. That is what the numbers say and one person is not smarter then the other because they like fav or like dogs.

Of course this is just my opinion but am not as knowledgable as some people around here. Look forward to hearing some more responses.

 

[AR182]

Agree with Fletcher,the sharp people that I have met don't bet dogs because of value but instead bet dogs only if they think the dog wins the game outright.

 

[buddy]

BBC,

I followed it for a year or so in college football and your records seem to be accurate. Each week it would be right a 50% +/- 2%.

On a 50 game card, one week it would be 26 favs covered and 24 dogs.

Next week, it would be 27 dogs, 23 favs.

It always seemed to be right around there.

IMO, whether it's a fav or dog, the key is shopping for "value".

Then, the all important question becomes....

"What determines value?"

I really think handicapping is defined by one's defintion of and one's approach to finding value.

 

[yyz]

What it comes down to, is that you need more wins (with a static wager) by favorites, versus wins by a dog, to make cash.

That's as far as some people take the math. Fletch is correct in stating that it doesn't matter if you lay -270 if the team wins! Absorbing a string of losses is what hurts most guys. If I remember correctly, Fletch, you took it on the chin for the first several days last season, before it came around.......For you, you have the cash to withstand those hits, and it worked itself out. For others, they could nat have weathered that storm.

The bottom line is cashing tickets. Baseball should be the easiest sport to beat, but year in, and year out, people get whacked. If you can make it, great! It doesn't matter how you got there! The fact of the matter is, poor money mangement and poor discipline beat bettors......not favorites vs dogs.

 

[djv]

BahamMama I believe last year. Almost or did win a baseball contest with almost all dog plays. If not her someone else did. Value is depending on the way your capping tells you to go. Someome elses value does not mean it's good for you. It does not mean it's bad either. I like looking for Dog plays in Baseball. There very rewarding if they win.

 

[buddy]

Regarding college football and basketball...

To a fundamental capper, value means one thing.

To a statistical capper, it means something else.

To an ATS capper, it's something different.

Knowing how to handicap and trusting your method is important, but not nearly as important as what yyz said...

"...poor money management and poor discipline beat bettors..."

(Those who bet hockey, NFL, NBA and baseball still think the world is round.)

 

[djv]

Excellent Point Buddy.

 

[spanky2]

I am a small time player now that I 'retired' from the business,so 3 dime plays don't happen as often,more like nickel to dime ,which is fun.
That said, I have devoted my time to TOTALS mostly and I had a superior YEAR (only one please note). But, when I play a side ,I don't consider the 'number' as I will only play a team that I consider will WIN ,most guys should know what the 'number'will Roughly be anyway. If my play is a Dog, I will ALWAYS play some,if not all the play on the money line..
I think people consider Chalk players "weak" as the MAJORITY of people play Chalk. And your correct, if you looked at NFL ,the Dogs cover as frequently as the Chalk (give or take a couple% ) either way. This I do know for a fact.
I used to have days where I got 'smoked' as the Chalk went 11-5 for the 2nd week in a row and I paid 90% of "my List". The next week, the dogs go 12-4 and I get back the bad 2 weeks,plus the same amount again. It's only a temporary 'loan'when I paid guys.Then you could go to a site like this and the fuchin crying was wild. Just look at this last year how the Chalk started out so hot.Then BOOM!!!!! Dog City big time. I would think the 'sharp player' would realize a pattern,and play these winning outright Dogs. But that was then...
Anyway, I think ANY serious 'player' should see 'Value" where-ever it is,Chalk or Dog.I think you HAVE to play both sides of the rotation schedule(left side and right side),because if you STICK TO one side only,forget about it,just give your guy your cash at the start of the season,then you can get a second job (HA)!!!
Just my thoughts, not saying they are "right", but I KNOW there is enough info. that is correct (experience and alot of "paperwork") taught me years ago,I just wish I had learned from my Mentor (now long dead) years before,but he liked takin' my paycheque every week, and he did get it way too often ..I see some younger guys that don't have a clue and it's CRIMINAL the pattern 's they use,but it is THEIR money to have fun with,but no crying PLEASE,it's really bad..
Good luck all, Spanky.......

 

[SixFive]

keep smacking up that chalk, fletch, the 2 biggest bettors I know who do it for a living play the pups. Like u said, though, I have the 40 hour grind, and u don't! I might know a little more than u think. Hope u win big for your clients.

 

[fletcher]

thanks,to each his own ,hey i played alot of dogs in fb and at the end of hoops,also do them in baseball with totals

good luck different things work for different people. and mine has done well for me and if your way works for what you need then we agree to disagree then thats all don't think the world will end over either of us. and how we play.just hope the world is here long enough to play for a few years.

ps if i have the big one i will come to bg and haunt your house

 

[SixFive]

lol, instead of slime, your apparition would leave a glowing trail of chalk! J/K, I don't believe in ghosts either.

 

[taoist]

...bump....

...bump....

The Godfather of MOJO would be Phoenix566....

...i see you lurking, 566...