FBR Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 16/1 e.w. available generally
Goosen finished outside the top-10 for the first time this week, but given that he had previously expressed a dislike for pro-am golf at the Dunhill Links Championship, it was hardly surprising. Back to standard strokeplay events this week and Goosen is back on the shortlist. He had a very similar start to last season (4th in the Mercedes and 20th in the Sony Open) and finished 3rd in this event. He is certainly playing well enough to repeat the feat.

Kenny Perry to win 28/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
Perry displayed last week that he is playing well enough to repeat his 2nd place finish to Chris DiMarco in 2002. He was in great form for four days and just struggled with his ball-striking in the final round, yet unlike Triplett, he dug in to still finish in the top-5. Widely available at a more realistic 20/1, these odds look generous.

Rocco Mediate to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler, UKBetting and Totalbet
A fine 16th place finish in his first event of the year was Rocco's return from last week's event. He looked to be in good shape and it was surely no more than a warm-up for this event in which has such a good record: from 1999 to 2001, he finished 1st, 2nd and 2nd. Unless there are some injury concerns that I have missed, these are very large odds for such a course specialist.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

YTD : -3.7u
Gonna just play a few doubles this week.........

1u Mickelson 11 & Els 4
1u Singh 8 & Els 5

Thought about riding along on Mediate with that course form but everytime I take him he screws me. So good luck everyone else.

 

[xodale]

Although he's done me in a few times, it's hard to overlook Frazar in current sizzling form - playoff at the Sony, and still managed a top 10 last week after giving the field a 6 or 7 shot start with a first round 73.
3rd place in this event last year so fill your boots at 50/1 e/w sportingodds

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmmm 5dimes place wagers 2 years ago 4/1 last year 5/1 this week 5 and change---- I think they made their point?

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Jay Haas to beat Paul Azinger -120 @ SkyBet [3 units]
Two top-10 finishes in the last two weeks from Azinger, but he still finished 5 shots behind Haas last week and has finished behind him in all eleven common PGA Tour events in the past year. So little reason for change this week.

Jay Haas to beat Ben Crane -111 @ Victor Chandler
Crane can also boast two top-10 finishes (from three starts) this year, but he also finished behind Haas who made his season debut last week. Having missed the cut last year (seven shots behind Haas at the time), Crane could struggle to secure another top-10 finish.

Mike Weir to beat Chris DiMarco -120 @ William Hill and Easybets
Very disappointing performance from DiMarco as a selection last week and so is opposed this week. Weir has not started the year particularly well this year due to a cold putter, but he was eight shots ahead of DiMarco at the cut last week.

Mike Weir to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ BlueSq
Garcia certainly reserved his best golf of 2003 until the very end when he closed with three top-10 finishes and a win in the Nedbank Golf Challenge. But this will be his first tournament for nine weeks and he has struggled on this course in the past. It should take him a week or two if he is to regain that late-season form.
(also available at Stan James, Expekt, Five Dimes and Pinnacle)

Retief Goosen to beat Sergio Garcia -137 @ Paddy Power [3 units]
If Weir can beat Garcia with a lukewarm putter, then it is natural that Garcia should also be opposed with one of the outright selections who does have good course form.
(also available at SIA)

Retief Goosen to beat Kenny Perry -120 @ William Hill and Easybets
A hedge play on Perry, I suppose. But there is a clear differential in the outright odds between these two players and Goosen should be a stronger favourite. Last week was the only time in the last three months (nine common events across all Tours) that Perry beat Goosen and the pro-am was a mitigating factor.
(also available at BlueSq and Expekt)

 

[Another Steve]

FBR Open Plays

FBR Open Plays

1ST Play of the Year, glad Golf is back. I really appreciate everyone posting their Plays, this helps me.

I'm going with Weir to beat Garcia. I agree with Stanley's write up. Weir's the more steady player and Garcia should be rusty. Now watch Sergio be mean as hell. I'll come back tomorrow if I see a good straight.

 

[Whalers Rule]

Outrights (1 unit E.W.) top 5 1/5

Allenby 40-1
Durant 115-1
Cejka 100-1
Ogilvy 100-1

Place top 5 only
Barnes 38-1
R Johnson 48-1

 

[lal2000]

FBR Outrights ? One unit e.w.

R Pampling ? 100/1 @ Sporting Bet
F Lickliter ? 125/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 odds 1st 5)
A Baddeley ? 100/1 @ Chandler
J Kaye ? 66/1 @ Chandler
C Howell ? 50/1 @ Sky Bet

Good Luck!

Adding - 0.5 units e.w.

Calcavecchia - 80/1 @ Chandler
Sabbatini - 125/1 @ Sporting Bet
Casey - 66/1 @ Sky Bet

 

[lal2000]

Doubles ? 0.25 units e/w

Cejka 66 & Scott 16 @ Sky Bet
Goosen 14 & Montgomerie 33 @ Sky Bet
Lickliter 80 & Bjorn 22 @ Sky Bet
Pampling 66 & Zhang 66 @ Sky Bet
Parnevik 33 & Westwood 16 @ Sporting Bet
Weir 20 & Micheel 40 @ Sporting Bet
Kaye 50 & Otto 80 @ Sporting Bet
Mediate 33 & Curtis 100 @ Sporting Bet
Baddeley 100 & Marksaeng 66 @ Victor Chandler


The small stakes can mean big returns ? the trickiest part is getting those combinations correct.

Good Luck!

 

[sports student]

72 hole

Campbell +110 over Parnevik (sportingbet)
Frazer -110 over Riley (sportingbet)
Kaye -105 over Riley (pinnacle)
Mediate -115 over Verplank (pinnacle)
Weir -127 over Garcia (pinnacle)
Triplett -110 over Huston (bet365)
Mediate -110 over Parnevik (bet365)

good luck

 

[orient]

72 hole:

Brandt Jobe +110 over Notah Begay III 2units -Nordicbet

Good luck

 

[Another Steve]

One Outright

One Outright

Retief Goosen WINS FBR OPEN +14.00

CoatTailing Stanley on this Play. Has been Playing well and should be near the Top come Sunday.

 

[british bulldog]

FBR Capital Open

FBR Capital Open

1 point WIN Singh (8/1)

1 point WIN Mickelson (10/1)

1 point EW Goosen 16/1

0.5 point EW Allenby 50/1

0.75 point EW Perry 28/1

0.5 points EW Mediate 40/1

0.5 points EW Calcavecchia 50/1


Total stakes 8.5 points

 

[warner]

phoenix

phoenix

weir 0 garcia -130
parnevik 0 azinger -150
couples 0 mary -120
ames 0 frazer +100

im taking a longshot with paul casey to win 50-1

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Phil Mickelson(11/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
It would be extremely bad form for this winning wager from last week to be taken off the table . . . Looking back, there were enough noteworthy developments on display during Phil's week that picking a defining moment or trend would merely be one opinion among many. But I do have an opinion, and what I found as striking as anything was the way he looked to hit exquisite little chips instead of big bold flop shots. Finally plumbing the depths of an awesome gift around the greens that 99.5% of his peers can't dream of matching is one thing, but it goes even deeper and tells me that at least for now, someone is getting through to that boy. Look out.

Setting off into this week at Phoenix, there was another comment from Mickelson after the Hope worth noting: "I love starting the year here, it?s a beautiful place. We have great courses, great practice facilities and great weather." In his television comments, Phil went on to note that the absence of wind (i.e., in contrast to Hawaii), is ideal for getting in quality work on your swing and game.

Steve Flesch(66/1) for 0.50* e.w @ Bet365
After a couple of disappointing weeks, I had my eye on Flesch as of about Thursday of last week when I saw nothing but signs of confident play in the desert, maybe as a result of the opportunities Mickelson mentioned for working some rust and kinks out of his game. I think of Flesch as a streaky player with sizeable ambitions and a willingness to work hard to try and measure up; I like the momentum from 3 late birdies to move up the leaderboard on Sunday; and I think of TPC courses and Nicklaus designs (which have some clear similarities to Weiskopf designs) as well suited to Flesch's game. So Flesch earns a Thursday nod over Harrison Frazar and Rod Pampling (and there I go taking a winning wager on Parnevik off the table).


MATCHUPS:


Cink(+105) over Estes (Tournament) for 1* @ 5 dimes

GL

*************************************************

lal2000: Nice call on Kendall last week - just one crucial shot from awesome. As for me, in this instance I would have been pulling for Mickelson over our mutual selection of Parnevik(80/1) - I can be funny that way. Your interest in what Kendall was doing was on my mind all weekend long, and if Mickelson had faltered, the good it would have done for you would have been the one consolation. GL

 

[sports student]

1st round at 5 dimes:

Leonard +121 over Riley/Kuchar

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

SS Thought this was interesting one they had up in early am, but was taken off board later.

01/29/04 JEFF SLUMAN (1ST RND) +161 DALY/O'MEARA (1ST RND)

 

[lal2000]

LIA

Yes - a hairy moment with Kendal - but in this game these disappointments are common - in the end quality will come to the fore in these events and there is no question that Mickelson is a stronger player than Kendall, though I do feel that in this instance Kendall's game was more consistent.

Nice call so far on Flesch - he was on my radar but not in my book! Good luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

SATURDAY:

Cink(+175) over Howell/Maruyama for 1* @ Bet365
Pampling(+162) over McCarron/Geiberger for 1* @ Bet365
Sluman(-126) over Janzen for 1* @ 5 dimes
Kaye(-120) over Jacobson for 1* @ Bet365

GL

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

YTD : -5.7u

I missed out on the 5 that was available but willing to try 4.5 with Kaye. He still brings me bad memories from his win at the Buick which Gamebookers screwed me out of but whats a gamber to do!

Kaye 4.5 1u ew